I've been working on Prius accident data inspired by Christopher Hogan's pioneering work. Recently, the NHTSA leaked a preview of their 12 state study so it is time to publish these results: It is risky to criticize an unpublished study based upon a news report that leaked some summary data. The NHTSA, twelve state study needs to be studied in depth before failing away at it. Regardless, we have enough fatality data to publish how deadly the Prius is relative to the NHTSA reported fatality rate. The leaked "50% more likely pedestrian accident rate" stands in stark contrast to the fatality rate. However, the higher citation report, "63%," seems to be in the same general area. I've drafted my first web page but haven't put it online, yet. I have to add all of my footnotes and references. But this posting pretty well describes the methodology and results. It is my "leak" of another report on Prius fatal accident rates. Bob Wilson
I have been hoping for lower than average accident rates / fatalities etc., because I'm hoping for lower insurance rates. Gotta be a little careful with crash test ratings etc., because they don't tell the whole story. Back in 93 when I bought a Camaro to take to Germany and run the Autobahn, it tested really well in the crash tests. I believe it was the "safest" American made car of it's class. In 94 when the accident statistics came out, you were more likely to be killed in a Camaro than any other car of it's class. So, it's the reason people that bought a particular car, drive that car, also has an effect on the accident statistics. If there is a big advertising campaign on how safe a car is, it has a tendency to attract people that are safe drivers and are looking for a safe car and the accident rates reflect this. If on the other hand, the advertising campaign is on how fast and sporty a car is, the tendency is to attract people that may drive fast and sporty and have may higher accident rates doing so. I hope that most of us Prius drivers are over there in the right lane seeking higher mileage and driving safe.
BWILSON, is there a link you can share that compares (or simply allows you to select) other cars' fatality records? I'd greatly appreciate it.
I'm using the NHTSA summary at:http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/Pubs/811124.PDF You can find similar reports for each year. I had considered trying to get something online but I would need an accurate count of the number of vehicles and their annual miles ... the fleet data. Unfortunately general sources of vehicle fleet data tend to be proprietary. The FARS data, the actual fatality record, is publicly available but the fleet data needed for the vehicle miles is the problem. LATE NOTE: 2008 FARS data is available. I'll be busy updating the spreadsheet shortly. Bob Wilson
OK, So what this says, is that because a Prius is likely to be driven in areas where Pedestrians are common - urban areas - then they need to make noise. But its the very noise in these areas that make these any vehicle a hazard to pedestrians in such areas. Because such noise covers up approaching vehicles. Indeed, every time I have nearly been hit by a vehicle as a pedestrian, this has been the case. So, more noise is just going to make things more dangerous to pedestrians in my opinion. Sounds like they lost the statistics battle, so now they are out to make up a an artifice to push this through. Outrageous!
That was part of what came out in the June 23, 2008 hearing. Gas-only cars today are 'hiding in the noise' and that already frustrates blind pedestrians. We don't have a copy of the NHTSA 12 state study so we don't know the details of their methodology. We only have this conclusion: I remain intrigued by how "turning" and "backing up" were quantified versus other vehicle operations like "driving forward." Bob Wilson
Ok, this is still a 'work in progress' and subject to change. Heck, I don't even have a change log, yet, and the HTML is primitive. Regardless, this is my 2001-2007 Prius fatality report: Prius Fatalities 2001-2007 I take all comments and criticisms in the spirit they are given and I am not the least bit offended if you help identify a problem early. Thanks, Bob Wilson
