Anyone Worried?

I think there will be a lot more demand for a 2010 Prius in three years than for a used Nissan Leaf. Why? Because the "Gen III" Prius has already evolved to a point where pushing beyond 50mpg is going to occur much more slowly now. It is a tried and true and trusted product by the general public. The Nissan Leaf and Volt will be first generations (the first year of Volt production could/will be plagued with problems). A few years after the Volt and Leaf come out, they will likely be introducing newer versions that will solve many of the first-gen problems. The "Toyota" 2010 Prius already has problems worked out and has evolved. The public will trust a used Gen III Prius much more than they will trust a first-year Volt or Leaf. Plus, over the next 24 months or so, as you wait, you will not be gaining the mpg benefit savings of the Prius. My recommendation for you is to buy a pre-owned GenII Prius and wait to see what happens. If upon seeing the new electrics, you want one, then get it. If you decide that's not what you want, then you will be able to trade your pre-owned GenII Prius in for a pre-owned 2010 Prius, and you will have been saving MPG$$$ the whole time.

Is electric the future, long-term? Yes. How do I know that for a fact? Because oil is an finite resource. However, I think that PHEVs and Volt-like vehicles will be the future (because as we decrease our oil consumption, and exercise moderation, the oil reserves will last for double-digit future generations). However, from an EDUCATED standpoint, we need to stop burning fossil fuels ASAP! We have already induced global warming (take a look at the Wikipedia page for Glacier National Park - all of the glaciers that our grandparents and parents were able to observe will be GONE entirely by 2030), and we are BEYOND equilibrium, and we actually need to turn around and go backward! Ph.D. Geologists already know this. The Dinosaurs may not have written their own extinction... but humans are writing their own extinction. Do you know the history of the Earth? We are like ants compared to a title wave.

If I was you, I would wait for the second generation of electrics. Don't buy the first year. Wait for the second version. I think the PHEV Prius might evolve to be exactly what you want. I think Toyota is making the PHEV a fleet vehicle so that they can have it ready to go, while they size up the competition, so they can make last minute tweaks before crushing the competition. Since it will be based on the current Prius, the core vehicle is already tried and true. All they are doing is adding a plug onto it. Still, they will need to work out that aspect. But Toyota is known for not releasing lemons. So, I think the first-gen PHEV is what you should shoot for. As always, get lots of opinions and do your research first.

 

I am hard pressed to identify any commerically available, retail product, that will not be improved in subsequent models. The economy would indeed stagnate if there was not a desire by the consumer to upgrade, buy newer and etc. No manufacturer could long survive if todays product was considered the ultimate, that cannot be improved upon. The goal of every manufacturer is to create "brand loyalty" where buyers return again and again for newer, fresher models.

I suspect the Volt, and the Leaf, and all the other models that we do not even know the names of at this time, will find a nitch, deliver outstanding efficiency .... but for a relatively few motorist. If I am not mistaken, isn't chevy's goal to sell 10,000 copies? That is a minute fraction of their annual sales. I for one, suspect the whole purpose of the Volt is to elevate the CAFE average ... even if they must be sold at a loss. There is no corporate profit in the Volt. But by raising the CAFE, they can continue to sell Corvettes, Cadillacs, and SUVs. That is where money is made.

Neither the Volt or the Leaf meet my needs, and I do not see anytime in the next 10 years that they would. ... and certainly not at $40,000. Not too many people in this economy (hopefully it will improve) can afford $40,000 for a "city car" and $$$ for a family vehicle. Neither vehicle will pull a boat, or pop-up camper, or accomodate a family of 4 on a trip to Grandma's house ... much less a vacation.

Even my G3, IV Prius does not meet all of my needs, but I also have a full-size PU truck that complements the Prius. The Prius' fuel efficiency enables me to purchase diesel fuel for my truck.

No, I have no regrets, and I do not feel there is any way I will regret not waiting for a Volt or Leaf.

 

Felt, you mention some very good ideas. Not to argue or disagree with you, but I just want to mention a fact. Evaluate it how you like. The SMART For Two car is certainly not a car that you can stuff the whole family into, and it is a niche car (akin to a "city" car), yet Mercedes has sold several thousand Smart cars already.

As you said, it's not for everybody. But if automakers didn't explore and innovate and try new things, then Toyota would have never experimented with the first Prius. Yes, the goal is to eventually develop a car for the masses, but sometimes it has to be evolutionary and automakers have to start with a niche market first. Some people in our society will argue that hybrids (Prius) is still a niche market. I think that is changing right now though. I seem to see a lot of hybrids on the roads these days (I live in Southern California). But I think it's obvious to all that the first Insight was clearly a radical niche car, as was the first Prius.

 

No. (Or, yes, go with it.) As I see it, a vehicle like the Prius won't become a "dinosaur" until electric vehicles powered on a renewable grid are the norm. So long as most people still buy conventional ICEs, the Prius will be a step ahead. If someone takes two steps ahead after I buy one, so much the better! I'm buying a Prius to support the market's movement towards that very end. "Voting with my wallet," as it were. IMHO, hybrid cars can have no higher destiny than making possible their own obsolescence, but that won't happen soon enough for me to delay this purchase.

Tech will move ahead only as fast as the market will allow it to, and no matter where you decide to throw down your cash, you will always have something better to buy in a few years. This is a good thing. Movement is what we need right now.

 

Dave Barry wrote that the big computer superstores had installed dumpsters at the end of the checkout lanes. After you paid for it, you could dump your now outdated purchase and go back for the newer improved model.

Tom

 

There aren't any massive breakthroughs that cause everything prior
to be immediately obsolete. Look at the transition from carburetors
to injection -- the whole science went through 20 years of
painful development, bringing some really *awful* injection
systems to market along the way and only in the last decade or
less are we really aware of how to use computer control technology
for efficiency as well as better reliability and lower maintenance.
But that doesn't stop plenty of carbureted engines from still
running around, or some of those early injection systems to still
be on the road and presenting diagnostic headaches to mechanics
who didn't happen to purchase the right weird proprietary tool back
in the day. Actual presence of the 2010 or the mythical Volt isn't
going to make my '04 promptly croak by the side of the road anytime
soon, I expect. And parts are still stocked by Toyota...
.
_H*

 

Do you have the bumper sticker?

 

I'm not worried at all. I would be glad to see battery technology advance at such a rapid pace, but I doubt I'll see it actually happen.

 

I agree. The odds are much better that I croak by the side of the road

Well, I AM middle aged!

 

Here's a suggestion: should I buy an EV with LiFePO4 batteries or is perhaps lithium polymer better or lithium manganese dioxide? Is superior energy density of lithium silicon or lithium air worth the wait? Or maybe we'll run out of lithium before I have a chance of buying one. And what about hydrogen, will that perhaps become cheaper and more practical and will my ev then become obsolete?

 

I actually believe that with some luck (no major accidents) my car will outlast me. :madgrin:

 

How about Ninjas? They're sneaky you know.

 

I've read almost all the posts in this thread, except for the one that started out all smart-a**ed, and I still don't see any reason to be worried.

In fact I'm planning to buy a hybrid in a little over a year when I have all the money saved for it. The point of it will be to augment my truck, like my Civic does now and give me good fuel economy most of the time.

For a really long time I thought about getting a first gen Insight then through reading and talking to owners I arrived at a first gen Prius instead and mainly because the HSD is proving to be better. Is the first gen going to be outdated by then? - Hell yeah. Will it's battery pack go bad in time? - Of course, they all do at some point.

Another way to look at it might be like looking at computers. We all kind of need them for the lifestyles we live now and it's nice to have the most recent but they become "obsolete" so quickly... who can keep up? I still have the one I bought 2 years ago and don't plan to buy another one, short of casastrophic failure that is.

My views are different than a lot of peoples. I see the explosion of Prius sales as a step in the right direction for a lot of reasons:
-people who hate hybrids will eventually get used to them and accept them as a fact of life.
-mechanics are going to Have to learn how to work on them and getting a hybrid fixed will be more commonplace.
-battery refurbishes won't be so hard to get

 

Next years anything could and probably will be better than this years. Saying that it would take a real heavy advancment like a series hybrid that could go 100mi on a charge and room enough for (4) 6ft adults and cost less than 30K for me to get real envious because then I would only be getting better mileage than 99.5% of the cars on the road.

 

And if it does, we're going to have a bunch of more pressing issues. Like food riots.

.

 

FWIW, having been in the computer industry, and having read a bunch of the stuff about how complicated this stuff is, I wouldn't buy a Gen 1 of ANYTHING.

Let's be honest, it takes one generation to work out most of the bugs. So, unless you really cherish being on the 'bleeding edge', I'd say a Prius is a good choice.

Also, I'm not sure folks will buy pure electric as their primary/only vehicle, or travelling could get fun. Prius then makes a good second...

New technology is just problems waiting to be found, so unless you MUST have it, it's not a bad idea to let it settle down.

My thoughts, FWIW.

 

Even then I will be able to get at least 500 miles away from the riots on 10 gallons of gas.

 

well thats probably not going to happen in next 2 model generations (10-12 years after original Volt/Leaf/Etc), and thats with big breakthroughs in battery technology.

Both Volt and Leaf will be built in tens of thousands max in 2012-2013, at which point there will be probably 1.5 million-2 million hybrids built every year.

People read about these lab "breakthroughs" but everyone needs to understand that technology from the lab to the consumer hands needs almost an decade...