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honda fit vs prius value after 10 years

Discussion in 'Newbie Forum' started by scfonta, Jul 14, 2009.

  1. scfonta

    scfonta New Member

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    I would love a Prius but don't put a lot of miles on my car and typically keep cars for > 20 years. When I run the numbers comparing a Prius to a Honda Fit for my use patterns, the additional cost is almost gone after 10 years, but I figure that by then I will likely need a new battery. Basically, it looks to me as if a 10 year old Honda Fit with 50,000-70,000 miles on it will retain more value than a 10 year old Prius with the same mileage. It seems to me that the Prius would be a better choice if I were planning on "using it up" within 8 to 10 years (e.g. 200,000 miles).

    Does my analysis look right? Am I missing something? Thanks
     
  2. ksstathead

    ksstathead Active Member

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    what fuel price did you assume?

    I do think lower mileage favors less expensive answers like the Fit. We have an 08 Fit and love it, but the mileage is not at Prius levels unless you get the MT and hypermile the devil out of it.
     
  3. scfonta

    scfonta New Member

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    I assumed 4$ per gallon and 10,000 miles driven a year (which is more than I actually drive).
     
  4. EZW1

    EZW1 Active Member

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    Hate to bust your bubble but your numbers may be flawed. The future value of an automobile (aka depreciation) depends on a bunch of factors - one of them is trend. If there's a great demand for a model, it will retain its value. So, your numbers presume that demand will not change in the future.

    My thoughts are, go with the reliability numbers. That should get you where you want to go.
     
  5. scfonta

    scfonta New Member

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    What are the reliability numbers? I agree that the trend is important, but hard to quantify. The trend is definitely in favor of hybrids/electric.

    Given the battery technology, how long is a lightly used prius battery likely to last? My impression is that the battery price is increasing, not decreasing. I am assuming that a prius battery degrades over time, even if it is not used much. Does anyone know answers to these questions?

    My sister says that her neighbor has a friend (!) who bought an older prius used that is unusable because the battery has gone "bad" and the cost of a new one is too high. (I plan to check this story out because it smells like an urban legend.) However, this is basically my concern. That a new battery may be more costly than the value of a 10 year old prius.
     
  6. miscrms

    miscrms Plug Envious Member

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    Prius have now been on the road for ~12 years (Japan model came out in 1997 as I recall) and while there have been batteries that have failed they are few and far between. A year or two ago a Toyota spokesperson put the out of warranty battery failure rate for the Prius at ~1:44,000, or about 0.003%. Compare that to the failure rate of other expensive components in "normal" cars, like transmissions, head gaskets etc which are often in the 0.1-1% range from what I have seen. There is at the current time no reason to expect that the Prius battery is likely to fail after any particular amount of time. If it should fail, replacements are currently ~$1800 from the dealer. That price has come down by about 1/2 since the Prius was introduced (not increased). Additionally used batteries from wrecks can be had for about $500, and are not really very hard to swap. The first gen Prius batteries are a little harder to come by since so few (relatively) were made, and are probably more expensive as a result. With over 1,000,000 gen 2 Prius sold, thats not much of a concern for the newer models.

    Consumer reports has found the Prius to be one of the most reliable vehicles rated, with one of the lowest costs to own and operate in any class in addition to the highest customer satisfaction rating in any class. Only you can decide if its right for your situation, but there is certainly no reason it shouldn't be on your list.

    Rob
     
  7. miscrms

    miscrms Plug Envious Member

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    Even if the story were true, a Prius from the first US year, 2001 MY, still books for ~$7500 PP or $9000 retail. Unlike a 2001 Hyundai, it would probably still be worth putting a few grand into, as with a new battery it should still go for a long time.

    Rob
     
  8. TonyPSchaefer

    TonyPSchaefer Your Friendly Moderator
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    If you can provide the numbers, we would be able to tell if the price of replacing the hybrid battery is offset. Besides, who told you that you would need to replace the battery? You might as well factor in a transaxle rebuild on the Fit.
     
  9. wfolta

    wfolta Active Member

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    First, the Fit is a smaller car, which I would say decreases the value (and the utility over those 10 years as well).

    Second, $4/gal seems low. I mean, a political crisis, inflation takes hold, and it could be over $4 two years from now, growing from there.

    Third, the Prius gets better mileage because it is more efficient. Efficiency doesn't just mean less gas used, it also means parts that are less stressed and hence more reliable. (And overall less maintenance: brakes, "transmission", engine, etc.)

    Fourth, as more and more hybrids and EV's are sold, the price of batteries will probably decrease over time and the capacity increase. You might actually WANT to replace the batteries in 10 years because it's so cheap and has so many advantages.
     
  10. scfonta

    scfonta New Member

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    prius fit
    cost 20,000.00 15,400.00
    insurance 6,410.00 5,940.00
    tax 5% 1,000.00 770.00
    est mpg 50.00 35.00
    5,000 miles driving per year, gas 4$gal
    gas 10 yr 4,000.00 5,714.29

    TOTAL $31,410.00 $27,824.29

    I couldn't get the numbers into columns so I put the Prius in italics. Oh and I am being wildly optimistic about the purchase cost. Hoping to get a 2009 standard model. Mostly non-highway driving.
     
  11. praveensg

    praveensg New Member

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    3k difference over 10 yrs is a no-brainer. And of course, you're getting more car with the Prius :)

    Disclaimer: My other car is a Honda :D
     
  12. miscrms

    miscrms Plug Envious Member

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    Not too wildly optimistic price wise, particularly if you consider slightly used which is pretty much always a good idea if cost is the bottom line. We bought a 2008 package 4 with 11k miles on it for $20k in December, and thats Certified Preowned with the extra warranty. If you care about warranties, CPO can be a great deal particularly with dealers kind of desperate to move used inventories. If you don't care about warranties or depreciation, you could do what we did for our first and buy a salvage rebuild from a reputable dealer. There are several who work exclusively on Prius and have good reputations in the Prius community, we used this one: 04 and newer Prius Parts Cars. They have a blue 2008 with 13k miles for $13k right now.

    Beyond that, your numbers don't lie. If you ignore depreciation, and maintenance/repair differences (which should be cheaper on the Prius), the Fit will be a bit cheaper. About $360 a year by your numbers. If you place any non-monetary value on creating less CO2, or consuming less foreign oil, or giving less money to the government or oil companies then the difference may be worth it. Similarly if you value the extra space and features that the Prius (even a base) will provide, then it might be worth it. The maintenance/repair cost difference will erase some or all of the annual cost difference, but an exact number is going to be pretty tough to come up with and would only be based on averages anyway.

    Rob
     
  13. JSH

    JSH Senior Member

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    The 2009 Honda Fit is the same size car as a 2009 Prius:

    ---------------- 2009 Prius --- 2009 Fit ---- 2010 Prius
    Passenger ------ 96 ------------ 91 ----------- 94
    Cargo ----------- 16 ------------ 21 ----------- 22
    Total ----------- 112 ----------- 112 --------- 116
    (EPA volumes in cubic feet - Fuel Economy)

    The Fit has more cargo room and a cargo area that is very flexible. Both Prius have more passenger room and the 2010 Prius has slightly more total room.
     
  14. miscrms

    miscrms Plug Envious Member

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    They are the same volume, not the same size :)

    If you carry rear passengers or have car seats they are not even in the same league from what I have seen. Rear legroom = 33.7in vs. 38.6in. Thats more rear legroom than a Camry! This is one of my favorite things about the Prius design. Part of the reason we sold our impreza wagon was the car seats would barely fit in it with the front seats all the way forward. In the prius, no problem! In fact it has more rear leg room than our Land Rover Discovery did. The Fit has about the same rear legroom as the Impreza.

    If you don't have a family, or more than one friend then I guess that wouldn't matter. Fit does have good cargo space, and probably a wider hatch opening. Prius is not far behind and still much better than any similar size sedan in these regards. I can't find a seats down cargo volume for the Prius, but I would guess its similar if not bigger. The Prius rear cargo area is greatly reduced by the roof sloping down compared to the square back of the Fit. In the middle where the Prius is taller it should add a lot of Volume.

    Rob
     
  15. wfolta

    wfolta Active Member

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    The Fit is a sub-compact, while the [2010] Prius is a mid-sized car. The [2010] Prius is 2 inches wider, 16 inches longer, and weighs 700 pounds more, but still gets substantially better mileage. Not worth the upfront money savings to me.
     
  16. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    My 3 cents:

    The car's 'value' aka depreciation is a non-issue if you keep the car 20+ years (like me). I don't think one can reasonably argue that maintanence/repair costs are going to be more in one car than the other. Both are excellent. The hybrid battery is just not that important. The inverter and transaxler are though, so be sure to keep up with fluid changes.

    So you are left with upfront costs vs fuel savings for the money calc, and subjective car preference. Personally, I would buy a gently (more) used Prius for whatever amount I was thinking of spending on the Fit. I suspect that a 50 - 75k mile Prius can be bought from a private party for $12 - 15K.
     
  17. PriusSport

    PriusSport senior member

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    Conventional ICE cars are already dinosaurs, so you can't really project them too far into the future when energy prices will probably be much higher. A hybrid is a safer investment for the future--a hedge against $4 gas. You are better off buying a used Prius right now for the same money as a new Fit.
     
  18. scfonta

    scfonta New Member

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    A lot of good information. Thanks all. I had been looking into a used Prius before the Cash for Clunkers program passed. I have a genuine clunker to trade in and to use that program I have to get a new car. (I usually drive my 1988 Honda Crx which gets around 40mpg!) I do feel strongly about the environment which is why I am interested in a Prius. I was pricing a NEW Prius at 20K (a 2009 standard that I am hoping the dealer just wants off the lot) which you have to admit is optimistic. I could forgo the $4500 for the clunker (valued at ~950 Edmunds). I was intending to hold to the high moral ground and get the Prius, but as a retired person with little income I do have to run the numbers.

    I only figured the Prius for 50MPG. For a 2009 is 50MPG too low an estimate?

    thanks.
     
  19. ksstathead

    ksstathead Active Member

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    50 for Prius depends on your driving profile: trip length, aggressiveness, speed, etc.

    Keep it under 42 mph so you can glide, driving some length on most trips, 50 is too low.

    Lots of cold start short trips or freeway speeds, and 50 can be too high.

    On clunkers, watch the fine print: Post 1984 model year IIRC, Mileage under 18, Driveable, Licensed to the buyer for one year ending on trade date, etc.
     
  20. scfonta

    scfonta New Member

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    I would like to think that a Prius would last 20 years, but what is the evidence that this is so? ICE technology may a dinosaur but there is plenty of proof that it lasts 20+ years! Playing devil's advocate here...

    I do mostly local driving. I am not sure what constitutes a cold start. Like, the car has been sitting long enough to cool down to outdoor temp (let's say 60F) before being started again? Or does it mean the car is above the arctic circle and has to function in very cold climate...
     
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