EV World article on plug-in hybrids

honoreitiscom · May 4, 2004

Here's an EV World article on plug-in hybrids, please consider
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Wrom: PEGAUTFJMVRESKPNKMBIPBAR

May 01, 2004

Plug It In, Plug It In...
By Bill Moore

Interview with CalCars founder, Felix Kramer on the California Cars
plug-in hybrid initiative

"We think the time has come when car drivers can finally start to
have an impact on the kind of cars that are produced," Felix Kramer,
the founder of the California Car Initiative or CalCar told me
recently. Formed two years ago by a group of volunteers from the San
Francisco Bay and Southern California areas, the goal of the
initiative is to encourage the development of plug-in hybrid-electric
cars.

Unlike today's hybrids, which don't require recharge from the
electric power grid, plug-in hybrids could be plugged in, a option
usually not seen as an advantage, until you start to consider the
potential operating cost-savings to consumers, as well as
improvements to the local environment.

Kramer and his group of volunteers, who include engineers and EV
enthusiasts, set out to raise awareness and funds to finance the
development of this cross between a pure battery electric car and a
gasoline-electric hybrid, a daunting task in the current economic
environment.

But with the introduction of the 2004 model Toyota Prius, Kramer and
colleagues think they may have discovered a short-cut to their
objective. It's a switch that is on the dash of all new Priuses sold
in Japan and Europe, but oddly, not in North America. It's that
missing switch that may be the key to creating the first commercially-
available plug-in hybrid, what CalCars considers the "next
generation" of hybrid vehicles.

But first a little background. While Honda and Toyota make a point of
telling potential buyers they don't have to plug in their gasoline-
electric hybrid cars at night to recharge the batteries -- their
cars' batteries self-recharge while driving -- the whole point of
grid-connected hybrids is that they do have to be recharged.

The point is to shift the energy inputs from gasoline, 60 percent of
which is now imported into the USA, to electric power stored in a
larger battery bank on the car. The batteries would be recharged for
essentially pennies to the mile from the local power grid using
common 110-volt household current, or even from the homeowner's wind
generator or solar electric panels. The energy to run the car would
come from indigenous, even renewable sources rather than increasingly
costly imported petroleum.

It's what Kramer calls "the best of both worlds."

Since most commuters drive no more than 25 miles a day, a plug-in
hybrid could have a battery pack sized just large enough to let the
driver operate most of the time in zero emission mode like a battery-
only EV and then automatically shift to the gasoline-engine when the
battery is depleted. The theory is that a smaller battery pack would
cost less money.

As Kramer pointed out, the technology exists today and prototypes
have already been built. He believes that the only thing left to do
is fine-tune the system.

"In addition, there is no new infrastructure needed," he remarked, in
obvious reference to the massive investment amounting to hundreds of
billions of dollars that will be needed to build a hydrogen refueling
system for fuel cell cars.

From the average consumer's perspective, a 20-miles range grid-
hybrid, would mean that instead of going to the gasoline station once
a week, they might be able to drive a mnth or more before having to
refuel, Kramer conjectured. While the watts per mile energy
consumption of a grid-hybrid has yet to be firmly established, we do
know that a battery electric vehicles like the Toyota RAV4 EV can be
operated at less than 2 cents per mile (275 Watts/mile x 6
cents/kilowatt hr) compared to more than 8 cents a mile on $1.89/gal
gasoline. Nighttime, off-peak electric rates would mean even lower
operational costs. The only real drawback might be the nightly
requirement to plug in the car, a task most battery electric car
owners easily adapted to, often commenting how much they liked
getting up in the morning with a full tank of "fuel."

According to Kramer, an EPRI study indicated that over the life-time
of the car, the total cost of the car would be less than a comparable
conventional gasoline vehicle.

"But of course, people don't think that way. The initial cost of the
vehicle will be higher," a conclusion based on the fact that advanced
batteries like NiMH and Lithium Ion/Polymer are still very expensive,
though the cost continues to come down. He anticipates --
maybe "hopes" is a better word -- that by the time the next
generation hybrids become available, lithium batteries will be
affordable enough to integrate into the car.

But in a way, this is still the classic chicken-n-egg conundrum; you
need light-weight, low-cost, high-power batteries to make grid-
hybrids or PHEVs feasible and affordable, but you won't see carmakers
building them until the batteries come down in price and can offer
150,000 miles or more of operation life.

Hydrogen Versus Batteries

While the hydrogen bandwagon has been making lots of noise of late,
attracting many proponents, as well as critics, Kramer thinks that
when we compare the two storage systems, he believes that batteries
make more sense than hydrogen, though he agrees that grid-hybrids are
still only a transitional technology.

"As I see it, it's always easier to move and to store electrons than
it is molecules. So the hydrogen highway is planned to get ready for
something that may never happen," he told EV World. He's willing to
concede that we may see hydrogen fuel cell vehicles someday, but he
wants to see those vehicles also offer a grid-to-vehicle energy
architecture where the fuel cell works more as a range-extender, thus
reducing the size of the stack and the amount of hydrogen the vehicle
has to carry, both ways to reduce the cost of production.

Kramer also expressed a commonly heard concern among electric vehicle
advocates and environmentalists, that allowing carmakers to pursue
the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle path, means that little or nothing
will be done about reducing emissions and oil imports today, or in
the next ten to fifteen years.

"Plug-in hybrids are the best transition technology we have and they
can start saving energy now."

Moving Beyond Stealth Mode

What Kramer and other new Toyota Prius owners have discovered is that
the car spends a lot of time, especially when creeping along in a
traffic jam, in that they have come to call "Stealth Mode." This is
when the car operates only on electric power with its IC engine
turned off, operating much like a battery electric car. And while the
battery pack is too small to offer any acceptable speed or range, the
Japanese and European versions of the car have a switch on the dash
that allows the driver to run the car in electric mode only for short
distances up to one or two kilometers at less than 42 mph.

So, some enterprising Prius owners speculated, what would happen if
we gave the car a few more batteries?

First, American owners had to find a way to add the missing switch
that Toyota unaccountably left off the US version. Since Toyota has
failed to reply to my emails and telephone calls, I can't give
readers a reason why the switch was not put in US-bound vehicles.

That hasn't stopped a handful of hackers who actually figured out how
to tap Toyota's complex computer control system.

"There are a couple of dozen American cars now [that] have added
the "EV Only" button," Kramer said, adding that complete instructions
on how to do it can be found on the CalCar.org web site, as well as
an archive of the online technical dialog.

"That got people thinking. As soon as they got the button going, they
started saying 'Wouldn't it be great if we had a longer stealth mode,
if we could go longer than a kilometer or two?'" That led to the
inevitable conclusion that they needed more batteries.

"The same person [Wayne Brown] who figured out how to reverse-
engineer the button has already added additional batteries to his
Prius," Kramer explained. The result is a car that gets 10-20 mpg
better fuel economy, he said.

The final step in turning the Prius into a grid-connected hybrid is
finding a way to recharge the batteries, and according to Kramer, a
number of people are at work on the problem, all, it must be noted,
without the support or blessing of Toyota Motor Company. In fact,
anyone undertaking the installation of the button, much less more
batteries, risks voiding their warranty.

Once the final step -- and that appears to be the most daunting and
risky one of all -- has been completed, what you'd have, in Kramer's
lexicon is a "neighborhood plug-in hybrid vehicle," a gasoline-
electric hybrid with a bit more range than the Japanese/Euro model
Priuses with the EV-only button.

"Hypothetically, you'd have a five to fifteen mile range in this
vehicle." He sees this as a way to not only let owners run local
errands in electric-only mode but, more importantly, get people
excited about the concept of plug-it-in hybrids.

Battling Slogans and Market Confusion

Kramer acknowledges that the general public is confused about what a
hybrid-electric vehicle is and how it works; most assume, wrongly,
that you have to plug it in, which leads Toyota and Honda and now
Ford to emphasize the fact that their cars don't need to be
recharged. They recharge themselves while you drive.

But plug-in advocates like Kramer and Dr. Andy Frank at UC Davis see
plugging hybrids in as an advantage, so Kramer's slogan is "You get
to plug it in."

What the California Car Initiative is planning to do is raise enough
money to engineer a prototype conversion of a Prius to show that it
is feasible. After that, they hope to convert a dozen or so other
cars for "well-heeled" owners who are willing to risk their cars, or
at the very least void their warranties.

Kramer agreed that given Toyota's prescient engineering culture, that
the company probably is already looking at the plug-in hybrid
concept, if it hasn't already built a secret prototype or two. He
hopes that CalCar's efforts demonstrate to Toyota that there is, in
fact, a market for these cars, at least in California where incomes
and grid power mix appear to make this a viable pathway
environmentally and economically.

But is there really a market?

Kramer is convinced there is, based on the level of response and
enthusiasm he sees for what he calls the Prius+Plus concept. In
addition, he noted that J.D. Powers and Associates reports that 35%
of car buyers are interested in hybrid cars and 85% of hybrid car
owners would pay more for their cars. To CalCar this represents an
opportunity to sell the plug-in concept as a "feature" just like the
Prius' GPS navigation system or its self-parking option. "People will
pay more for features, some of which have no economic benefit, like
leather seats or sun roofs," he said. "So we are pitching this the
best car around, the next generation hybrid."

Looking For a Few Celebrities and Guinea Pigs

In order to move his intiative beyond its current "hacker" phase,
Kramer hopes to convince a few Hollywood celebs or maybe Silicon
Valley eentrepreneurs to sponsor the necessary engineering and
prototype development So, he's talking to everyone he can --
including EV World -- to publicize the project. Once he has a celeb
or two on board, then he wants to convince a few bravehearts to be
what he called "Guinea pigs" who will let CalCars convert their
Priuses to NPHEVs -- Neighborhood Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle.

Kramer sees America as a celebrity-driven culture that will believe
this is possible when someone they respect becomes involved in the
project. He's trying to raise $50,000 for the initial engineering
proof-of-concept, with technical assistance to be provided by experts
in plug-in hybrids, including Dr. Frank.

Assuming he can bring on the people he wants, he estimates that the
first series of conversions, which he calls "green tuning," will cost
somewhere from $10,000 to $20,000. But for Kramer, this is just the
beginning. He is looking beyond the Prius to Toyota's Highlander, its
Lexus and Ford's Escape SUVs, which because they are larger vehicles,
he believes can be "green tuned" into fully-highway capable plug-in
hybrids.

He hopes that Toyota, whom he said has not only designed the best car
in the world, but also respects their customers, will take note of
the interest in the Prius+Plus and eventually offer their own
version, taking their already world-class technology to the next
level.

richard schumacher · May 4, 2004

EV World at http://www.evworld.com/

So why not use a closed fuel-cell system (with H2 and O2 storage) as a battery? It could have much faster charge and discharge rates than any chemical battery.

I'm guessing that the H2 storage would be pretty bulky and/or heavy, but I don't know. If metal hydrides have acceptable mass- and volumetric energy density for use in a battery they should be good enough for a closed fuel cell.

krooster1234 · May 4, 2004

Hmmm... getting extra energy from local power grid... while that would be great if my local power grid used renewable energy, and apparently cheaper than gasoline, I'm guessing most of the power my house gets is from coal and probably some nuclear.

I hate it how hardly anyone seems to understand the REAL problem, which is how the energy is obtained. Yes, batteries may be easier to use than hydrogen for energy storage (for the time being). However, when the energy is being derived from fossil fuels (like energy on the power grid most likely) it's efficiency and emissions control that matters.

I'll take the extra-low PZEV emission levels from the prius' gasoline over whatever the average coal power plant emits, thank you very much. I'll even take my prius' emission levels from burning gasoline over the amount of emissions from the power plants that would be let out to produce an energy equivalent amount of hydrogen.

We need renewable clean energy sources!!!!!

-Kevin

bruceha_2000 · May 4, 2004

Originally posted by honoreitiscom

While the watts per mile energy consumption of a grid-hybrid has yet to be firmly established, we do know that a battery electric vehicles like the Toyota RAV4 EV can be operated at less than 2 cents per mile (275 Watts/mile x 6 cents/kilowatt hr) compared to more than 8 cents a mile on $1.89/gal gasoline. Nighttime, off-peak electric rates would mean even lower operational costs.
Click to expand...

Got long so here is an executive summary (for me - ~830miles/month @ $1.89/gal):
$31.50/month - 2004 Prius
$28.50/month - Hypothetical "plug-in Prius" - which would have to have substantially larger battery capacity to get the '20 mile around town on EV alone'
$22.50/month -2004 Prius with Wayne's 'double capacity' extra battery - only Toyota should put it in for us

And the long details version:
Nice numbers BUT -
His world is a bit different than mine: 6 cents/KWH. We pay 11.2 cents regular residential. The RAV4 EV would cost me over 3 cents per mile using the regular residential rates or at about $26/month given my average miles/month.

The off peak structure is 15.4 cents from 6AM to 11PM, 6 cents/KWH at night. For charging the car, one would need to add a timer in the loop or stay up later than I do. I could get 1.65 cents/mile (about $14/month driving) if I charged the car on off peak hours but then my regular household cost would go up about $30/month as, not surprisingly, the majority of electical use is on-peak. Thus it would cost me about $18/month cash out of pocket MORE to use off peak.

If a Prius gets 50 mpg, at $1.89/gal the cost per mile is under 4 cents.
It would cost about $6/month more to drive the Prius than the RAV4 EV. But since we are talking hybrid plug-ins, not RAV4 EVs, there is still some gas usage (50% decrease I think the article said). If I figure 1/2 the miles on grid power and 1/2 on Prius ICE and regen, the cost would be about $28.50/month.

If I recall Wayne's experiment of adding battery capacity correctly, he got up to 70 mpg. Using that figure, a current Prius would cost me $6/month LESS than a Prius plug-in

Not that the entire idea of a hybrid-plug-in is bad, but I don't see it as quite the rosy picture in this article. I think one of the Prius advantages is that the small ICE always runs at optimal RPMs thus is more efficient and less polluting (probably even better than a lot of the coal and oil fired electric generating stations).

efusco · May 4, 2004

Bruce,
A couple minor flaws in your overall otherwise great points.

1)Wayne now has 3 batteries (1-original '04 NiMH, 1-'02 Prius NiMH, 1-PbAcid set he constructed himself. He's nearly tripled the battery capacity.

2)What do those numbers (cost/month) look like if you now make those additional batteries gridable? That's obviously going to be tough to calculate precisely, but if you increase battery capacity and increase the ability to charge from the grid then you should see a relative improvement in efficiency equivalent to the percentage gain in capacity.

DaveinOlyWA · May 4, 2004

hmm its interesting that one of the biggest drawbacks in past EV's were the requirement of plugging in batteries at night. the biggest was actually the weight of the batteries.

but now we have better batteries, more efficient power conversion systems, and i think that unless you get generate electricity from renewable sources, then i dont think it will fly here.

I think what we should be looking at is small generating systems that take advantage of solar and wind to generate electricity that we can put back into the grid.

There is a very cool website call www.calforniacoastline.org which has taken high resolution photographs of the california coastline to use as a reference point to gauge changes due to weather, earthquakes and man.

The owner/creator of the site is very environmentally conscious and has set up a self powered house of sorts. check it out, it is a very facinating read.

http://www.solarwarrior.com/

bruceha_2000 · May 5, 2004

Originally posted by efusco
Bruce,
A couple minor flaws in your overall otherwise great points.

1)Wayne now has 3 batteries (1-original '04 NiMH, 1-'02 Prius NiMH, 1-PbAcid set he constructed himself. Â He's nearly tripled the battery capacity.

2)What do those numbers (cost/month) look like if you now make those additional batteries gridable? Â That's obviously going to be tough to calculate precisely, but if you increase battery capacity and increase the ability to charge from the grid then you should see a relative improvement in efficiency equivalent to the percentage gain in capacity.
Click to expand...

If the current '04 can go 1-2 miles on battery alone, the '20 mile' EV distance in the article would require 10 X the current battery capacity, right? That is a lot of battery charging, lost cargo space and weight. I think that would make the comparison more in favor of doubling the current capacity for most driving conditions.

I'm sure it all depends on how one drives. Some days I could probably make it on 20 miles mostly on EV, other days I drive double that. Longer trips and the 20 mile EV is not adding much value. One thing I've seen here is that sometimes the car has to dump excess charge. I wonder how often that happens and under what circumstances. Perhaps there is an argument for doubling the current capacity and adding an EV button, as long as people used it wisely.

daniel · May 5, 2004

As I read the above, CalCar wants investors to help it reverse-engineer the Prius, so it can do what Wayne has done, plus add a grid-charger; then it wants a few celebrities to pay to convert their own Prius, voiding their warranties in the process. Presumably CalCar would offer no warranty. And it wants to do all this just to convince Toyota that there is a market for this kind of car so that Toyota would do it all itself, and do it right, and offer these features on future Prius models, with Toyota's warranty, and presumably much cheaper than CalCar could do it.

It seems to me that a well-organized letter-writing campaign to Toyota, employing a paid staffer, would do the job much cheaper. Personally, I've already written to Toyota saying that I'd like to have an EV button and extended range. I've done my part. If enough people write, they'll hear us. They're not dumb.

DaveinOlyWA · May 5, 2004

I am willing to bet that all those suggestions plus more are already in the cards for the Prius.

i think we have to realize that up until very recently, the Prius was a niche product at best. there was only supposed to be 24,000 of em made this year. with that kind of volume, major modification and body style alterations would simply be too expensive.

I think within 2 years the volume of Prius' will be close to a quarter million cars. there will be more body options, also options for bigger battery packs, solar energy panels on the car, extended gas tanks, and other special functions designed to assist drivers drive.

anyone else care to make any predictions?

bruceha_2000 · May 6, 2004

Originally posted by DaveinOlyWA

I think within 2 years the volume of Prius' will be close to a quarter million cars. there will be more body options, also options for bigger battery packs, solar energy panels on the car, extended gas tanks, and other special functions designed to assist drivers drive.

anyone else care to make any predictions?
Click to expand...

I'm not sure about some of these as options.

I don't have one so those that do can correct me, but I would think an optional second battery pack would require some body changes to hold it safely. I guess it would be either a standard feature, or they will use improved battery designs that can get more capacity in the same physical (or smaller) volume. Same with the gas tank. Not sure there is a lot of room for a second or larger tank. Just give us a gas guage that is accurate and a tank we can comfortably run down 10.5 gallons before the warning hits. If the car REALLY is getting 50 or 55 mpg, it would have to be a pretty big desert to cross before you really needed a bigger tank.

With respect to solar panels, you would need a LOT of coverage to charge the traction battery to any useful extent. Prior discussion regarding solar here was related to keeping the 12V charged while you were gone for a few weeks. I would rather see a switch that cut out all but computer memory usage and another to use if you need to jump the 12V using the traction battery. Actually, a built in trickle charger from the traction battery to the 12V (only the the point the traction battery isn't drawn down too far) would be great, then it really would be "just like a regular car" as far as not having special handling if you went on a 2 or 3 week trip.

I expect Toyota will come out with different body styles though they seem prone to having 1 style per name so it might just be their "put it in every model" business plan rather than multiple Pius body styles. Either is fine by me

And now for something completely different:
How about a "dually" version with the outer tires riding on the road for the sole purpose of turning a built-in alternator to charge the batteries ;-)

DaveinOlyWA · May 6, 2004

Bruceha:

you are correct. that is why Toyota seems to be dragging their heels. in reality they are not. to give people what they ask for will be time consuming and expensive and Toyota needs to increase production and market share first. doing both will reduce overall costs of producing the car and open up avenues for more extensive options.

as i said in the my previous post. give it two years and see what is available.

realize that it takes 18-30 months to design a car and extra battery packs etc will require a complete redesign of the car.

felixkramer · May 6, 2004

Thanks for all the thoughtful comments. I'll reply to the main themes of messages I've seen; answers to some points are at CalCars.org.

* Yes, the grid is dirty (US is 50% coal; California, though, uses no coal, so it's a good bit cleaner).
I think the big picture strategy sees three key components to getting coal and oil off the grid's feedstock and oil out of our transportation system:
1. cheaper and denser batteries for vehicles and homes (sooner and easier than hydrogen as an energy storage system)
2. photovoltaics and other renewable sources of energy to power the grid
3. plug-in hybrids (and the path back eventually to 300-mile-range electric vehicles)
We shouldn't look only at the Prius but at the entire transportation system. Of course it's easier to contain emissions at centralized carbon-based generators than at distributed cars. Someone once said to me, "EVs are the only cars that get cleaner as they get older." Why? because the grid gets cleaner (we hope). And emissions from recharging batteries at night from coal-based power plants operating off-peak when they have to be on anyway shouldn't get counted the same as daytime emissions.
* PHEVs contribute to reducing not only emissions but also to far higher reductions in use of imported oil, thus improving prospects for energy security and a foreign policy that isn't distorted by keeping OPEC nations happy. (Toyota doesn't pay much attention to this issue, they focus on emissions.)
* Batteries are clearly getting better pretty quickly. Look at the difference between Toyota-Panasonic's 03 and 04 Prius batteries: smaller, lighter, more powerful -- I imagine the combined improvement factor is 50% (anyone have that number?)
* For our proof of concept and perhaps for our first few conversions, we want to start by just adding additional Prius batteries, but as soon as possible, we want to use batteries more like those used in EVs. I am not the person to provide technical details, but HEV batteries prioritize power, while EV batteries prioritize deep discharge.
* I don't agree Toyota will give us PHEVs or even more batteries. I think their priority is extending Hybrid Synergy Drive across their line, and I believe their long-term strategy is fuel cells (not, by the way, plug-in hybrids with hydrogen fuel cells as range extenders). They will maintain their "you don't have to plug it in" tagline because they rightly see confusion in the market about what hybrids are.
* Would letter writing do more? See the links at http://www.calcars.org/resources.html section 8. Been there and done that: over a quarter million signatures, plus current campaigns. That doesn't stop car companies from saying "people won't pay more for cleaner cars."
We know Toyota watches the online groups, so they already know how excited people have gotten about the EV Button's potential combined with more batteries. I think the power of 10,000+ 2004 Prius owners talking online, and organizing to get better cars, has a better chance.
CalCars wants to do this as quickly and as cheaply as possible, of course benefiting from all the experimenting going on now, and persuade Toyota, if not for the Prius, then for the Lexus RX400 and Highlander, to give us a PHEV option. (Or another car company, getting the jump on everyone. )
We're all volunteer; we'd use a paid staffer to spread the word about the idea that there's something already out there between mostly-gasoline hybrids and the hydrogen highway -- and to actually show off examples starting with PRIUS+.

By the way, listen to the NPR radio show Living On Earth this weekend for more about PHEVs: check schedule at http://www.loe.org

DaveinOlyWA · May 6, 2004

[Broken External Image]:http://www.geocities.com/daveinolywa/images/batteryimprove.jpg

here is part of a presentation from Prius tech labs

it states that battery storage improvements of 35% while reducing weight 70 % (actually according to my calculator its only 68%)

actually there is a double sided improvement on the battery front.

its now lighter and packs more charge per pound further increasing economy.

[Broken External Image]:http://www.geocities.com/daveinolywa/images/efficiency.jpg

as seen by this slide, the improvement in efficiency comes from several different areas that only strengthens my belief that major reworking of the vehicle would be neccessary to implement some of the changes suggested in this forum

assagor · May 8, 2004

The big advantage to having a plug-in hybrid is that they are MORE efficient energy users. A nonplug-in hybrid like the prius has to use the gasoline engine to recharge the battery. This will give you at most 30-35% efficiency. That is a staggeringly low percentage (Blame Mr. Otto for his inefficient cycle )! No matter which way you look at it, you are still using gasoline, in an inefficient manner, to do all your work. However, if most of the battery charging was done using the electricity grid, you'd be charging your batteries in a more efficient manner since nuclear, coal, wind, solar, hydroelectric, geothermal, etc etc energy, has much higher efficiency levels than a car engine. This is why Mr. Kramer and Dr. Frank are pushing plug-in hybrids.

BTW I am a student at UC Davis and work on the UCD Futuretruck team led by Dr. Frank. We turn an SUV into a hybrid and compete. our approach is very different from other schools because most of our power comes from our two electric motors producing 100 hp each. Our gas engine is a tiny 1.9L. Total power is 300 hp and getting close to 30 mpg. If you guys are interested, more info can be found on our team site www.team-fate.net or https://www.futuretruck.org/default.html

DaveinOlyWA · May 8, 2004

according to Toyota, the Prius is more efficient that a normal ICE simply because the engine has been redesigned to take advantage of not having to start cold, propel the car from zero mph, etc.

a chart says that the average efficiency for a 2003 ICE was 18% while the 2004 Prius was at 37%

also we need to remember, that kilowatt per kilowatt, the power grid in even dirty plants produces only 10% of the polution that a car produces. but that is understandable, power plants are not built to move people around.

insolarman · May 14, 2005

Mr. Kramer has released estimated figures of $10,000-$15,000 for these conversions, depending upon the upscale reductions in volume.
As someone who is on their second Prius and drives 50,000 miles a year, I can honestly say it is worth it for my family. I can't answer for those who average in the 20K range.
I do know after three spectacular years of Prius driving, the consumer is back to establishing the market and Prius drivers lead the charge with Prius sales up over 80% from 2003-2004.
This market is a cascading effect of higher oil prices, better technology and thus more efficient vehicles being produced and purchased. As long as we continue to pursue this philosophy, I am convinced the battery technology and the inverters to charge them will meet the market demand in cost effectiveness. The next cascading effect will be to have local power generation in the home via fuel cells or PV's. The NREL is stating the PV costs will dramatically decrease in the next three years to the point of having a 3-5Kw system in your home for power and hot water.
Another cascading effect will be how power companies will want to jump on board with Off-Peak Power similar to the electric furnaces and ice storage systems once used here in the Midwest. They know a good thing when it comes and it would raise their profitability immensely. Let's not confuse the validity of the charging system with supporting the end means-cleaner cars and ultimately cleaner air. I'm ready Felix, let's talk!
My Highlander Hybrid will be here in six months?

Thanks for all the thoughtful comments. I'll reply to the main themes of messages I've seen; answers to some points are at CalCars.org.

* Yes, the grid is dirty (US is 50% coal; California, though, uses no coal, so it's a good bit cleaner).
I think the big picture strategy sees three key components to getting coal and oil off the grid's feedstock and oil out of our transportation system:
1. cheaper and denser batteries for vehicles and homes (sooner and easier than hydrogen as an energy storage system)
2. photovoltaics and other renewable sources of energy to power the grid
3. plug-in hybrids (and the path back eventually to 300-mile-range electric vehicles)
We shouldn't look only at the Prius but at the entire transportation system. Of course it's easier to contain emissions at centralized carbon-based generators than at distributed cars. Someone once said to me, "EVs are the only cars that get cleaner as they get older." Why? because the grid gets cleaner (we hope). And emissions from recharging batteries at night from coal-based power plants operating off-peak when they have to be on anyway shouldn't get counted the same as daytime emissions.
* PHEVs contribute to reducing not only emissions but also to far higher reductions in use of imported oil, thus improving prospects for energy security and a foreign policy that isn't distorted by keeping OPEC nations happy. (Toyota doesn't pay much attention to this issue, they focus on emissions.)
* Batteries are clearly getting better pretty quickly. Look at the difference between Toyota-Panasonic's 03 and 04 Prius batteries: smaller, lighter, more powerful -- I imagine the combined improvement factor is 50% (anyone have that number?)
* For our proof of concept and perhaps for our first few conversions, we want to start by just adding additional Prius batteries, but as soon as possible, we want to use batteries more like those used in EVs. I am not the person to provide technical details, but HEV batteries prioritize power, while EV batteries prioritize deep discharge.
* I don't agree Toyota will give us PHEVs or even more batteries. I think their priority is extending Hybrid Synergy Drive across their line, and I believe their long-term strategy is fuel cells (not, by the way, plug-in hybrids with hydrogen fuel cells as range extenders). They will maintain their "you don't have to plug it in" tagline because they rightly see confusion in the market about what hybrids are.
* Would letter writing do more? See the links at http://www.calcars.org/resources.html section 8. Been there and done that: over a quarter million signatures, plus current campaigns. That doesn't stop car companies from saying "people won't pay more for cleaner cars."
We know Toyota watches the online groups, so they already know how excited people have gotten about the EV Button's potential combined with more batteries. I think the power of 10,000+ 2004 Prius owners talking online, and organizing to get better cars, has a better chance.
CalCars wants to do this as quickly and as cheaply as possible, of course benefiting from all the experimenting going on now, and persuade Toyota, if not for the Prius, then for the Lexus RX400 and Highlander, to give us a PHEV option. (Or another car company, getting the jump on everyone. )
We're all volunteer; we'd use a paid staffer to spread the word about the idea that there's something already out there between mostly-gasoline hybrids and the hydrogen highway -- and to actually show off examples starting with PRIUS+.

By the way, listen to the NPR radio show Living On Earth this weekend for more about PHEVs: check schedule at http://www.loe.org
Click to expand...

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EV World article on plug-in hybrids

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