2010's Not Jumping Off the Lots Everywhere

I disagree. I don't think people will just go out and buy a new car just because gas prices shoot up. The economy is still very bad and unemployment rate is near the great depression numbers. Saving $10 to $20 a week in gas does not make people spend $25,000 on a new car. Last year was different because it was the first time prices went so high so fast and people panicked. Then prices dropped over 60%.

 

That's a real quote $750 over Dealer Invoice on a 2 or 3 and $1,500 on a V. I called Montana myself and I am waiting for the new steering to buy there in a cash deal.

 

Toyota is not failing and your statement is wrong. less than 40% are employed and they must support the 2/3rd of the non working population. which basically means that every person who is employed who suddenly becomes unemployed, that one job lost is probably affecting the purchasing power of 1 to 3 other people.

we need to realize that we were living beyond our means so to use those inflated figures for anything other than a sobering lesson on restraint is useless.

to say that this year, sales will go down 30% does not mean one is failing. it only means that they are having a realistic sales year that is not being artificially inflated by loose, unbacked, or unscrupulous loan and credit practices.

now, all those people who are driving relatively new cars are either going to pay them off and trade them in for something new or lose them. the latter is very unlikely. most people would give up everything to keep the car knowing that transportation is the key to either finding or maintaining employment.

so this year might be a bit sluggish but only because the over extension of the credit bubble still has to deflate a bit first. as far as buying new cars. people will continue to buy simply because they dont have a choice. most would not consider trying to keep a used car running, so they borrow to the hilt and get new.

too many mothers with young children, etc who will simply not take the risk of driving an unreliable car.

 

I agree with most of Dave's post, except the bit about mothers 'refusing to take the risk of driving a used car.' It reminds me of mothers from not so long ago who would only consider an SUV for 'safety's sake'. Unemployment has a way of dispelling rationalizations.

 

hey now remember, i never implied that Mothers were rational

 

New cars, even new Priuses, are not a priority right now. That's pretty obvious.
The car industry is loaded with problems. Be happy if you aren't in the business.

 

I agree. There are two at our local dealer but they haven't sold because the owner wants $4000 above sticker. He has nothing to lose by doing this. He only has two. They will sit in his showroom and more and more people will see them every day. He can always lower the price to sticker any time he wants.

(Think about this .... marking a vehicle up $4000 above sticker during an economic recession)

 

By comparison to these Toyota commercials, the GM commercials are brilliant.

They should hire William Shattner from the Priceline commercials to be in the Prius commercials.

 

As the economy improves, demand for gasoline will go up as will the price we pay at the pump. People stopped driving their SUV's, demand dropped and so did the price we pay at the pump. Hybrid sales, especially the Prius, is largely tied to the price of gasoline. I agree that there is a lot hype about orders for 80,000 in Japan alone. Then there is talk of overtime, etc. Toyota will only ship additional cars based on dealer inventory. It won't take long for supply to exceed demand. When that happens, deals will be made.

Listen dealers, it is far easier to replace a car than it is a customer with cash in hand. If I were a dealer, I would not turn customers away at the door just because they want to be treated fairly by getting a good deal. Dealers are not in the business of owning cars on their lot. They should be in the business of getting that inventory off their lot. Turning away a customer at your door is the quickest way I know to go out of business. When a deal comes your way, take it!

Am I off subject?

Dan

 

Gas prices have been rising here. I think your analysis forgot to include January 2009.


Historical Price Charts - Orange County Gas Prices

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My belief is that crude will continue to spiral up.

There has been huge open interest in the crude market - and all index-tracked commodities - since the banks were bailed out. You can see two deep notches in open interest in mid-November and late December to early January, but they recovered again fast and have only been increasing.

Investors still see commodity futures as an 'investment' category, and they simply throw money at it apportioned by the weights in the index, not really caring about the per-unit cost. The futures market is structured with the ability to cash out rather than take delivery of the physical commodity, and a great deal of ease in 'rolling' a position to a future delivery month. In addition, it isn't necessary to front up very much money to cover the cost of an option.

We are going to have even more food and gas price inflation, and it won't be reflected by any change in actual supply and demand. The trend for miles driven in the US continues to be down. March 2009 Traffic Volume Trends - TVT - Travel Monitoring - Policy Information - FHWA shows a drop of 1.2% in March compared to March 2008, which itself was down sharply on 2007. The price of futures depends only on the supply and demand of the paper contracts, and the supply of those is effectively unlimited as the futures make up such a small proportion of the actual markets.

Oil has already gone from $40 in January up to $65 today - $15 this month alone. We could be looking at $140 by November if this keeps up.

I urge everyone to read The Accidental Hunt Brothers.

 

Just a quick note about my experiences searching thus far:

My fiance's Mini Cooper broke down last week, so we need to replace it. I was looking for an 09 Prius, and here in Orange County no dealers I contacted had any. However, I was told there are numerous 2010s, several places already have them, and other expect a big shipment next week. Some nice people have also mentioned that they do not expect any shortage at all and deals should be available within the month.

I cant remember where, but I also read (either car and driver, motor trend or consumer reports) that a new battery factory has opened to increase production.

Thats my experiences shopping this far, it really seems these will sell just like any other car.

 

The 2010 Prius are selling like hotcakes in San Diego County. As soon as a dealer gets a few in, they are going. As far as I can tell, there are no markup in this area. I paid MSRP on my 2010 Prius V w/ATP in Classic Silver. In this area, gasoline prices are going up slowly. Regular unleaded is now $2.69 9/10 as of yesterday. Premium unleaded is going for $2.99 9/10. I don't think that prices on the 2010 Prius will be going below MSRP in this area for awhile. San Diego County Toyota dealers are not having any problems selling the new 2010 Prius.

 

We are still patiently waiting for Blue IV with SR here in Chicago. Like Jabber said, most (all?) of the ones on the lot are lower models while most of the demands are for higher ones.

 

In addition to the bad economy reducing sales of cars in general, I suspect that Toyota's insistence on marketing the Prius as a car for environmentalists and gas misers looking to save at the pump is not helping this car sell. Those demographic groups are relatively small. I think that if this car was also marketed in a way that stresses attributes appealing to other demographic groups they might get more customers. For example, it's a very high-tech vehicle -- not just the engine, but also the optional gadgets in the upper option packages. Perhaps they should try appealing to consumers who are highly-educated technology lovers (e.g., geeks, scientists, engineers, etc.), and see what happens. The car is also very practical to use, being a hatchback, having clever storage compartments, good fuel economy, easy to park, having a long warranty on the drivetrain, etc. Why not stress those attributes? Or, how about a few commercials marketing it as the ultimate car for long commutes to work plus flexibility for weekend activities -- who with a 1-2 hour one-way commute wouldn't want a care with a (supposedly) improved ergonomic driver's seat, one that's tomb-quiet when stopped in traffic, has BT speakerphone to take sales calls while in traffic, Navigation system with XM-Traffic to reduce stress and help locate new clients and customer sites, 100s of satellite radio stations for music/talk/comedy/news, parking assist to reduce stress of city parking, a (supposedly) good stereo with iPod interface, business card holder in the center console, a curvy harmonious dash to reduce stress, and a youthful exterior style for taking a date out in the evening, etc? Personally, I'm turned off by the image this car has as being for environmentalists and flower people (reference recent Toyota TV commercial), and the stereotype it conveys of drivers supposedly being "smug" about using less gas than other people. Despite this car's enticing features and styling, I'd hesitate before buying one because of its image, just as I'd hesitate before buying a $100K sports car since I don't like the image it conveys, either. Some people want a high-tech commuter/family car that has all the trimmings for ~$30K without the stigma of looking like a rolling bumper sticker for certain political views.

 

I have to agree with most of this assessment. The commercials are too cartoonish to appeal to the mainstream and seem more like a movie announcemnt rather than a product advertisement.

The Youtube Japanese video is more appealing even though I don't understand Japanese. At least it conveys the features of the car.

Toyota should market the vehicle as if it were the best-selling car in America which meets the most stringent environmental regs using the most efficient engineering components. I bet they would get buyers from every category and in every state not just to those GreenEnvironNuts in California (where I live).

 

I can relate to what you're saying as we want our cars, the way we dress, etc. to reflect more of who we really are. However, I've gotten to the point where I make purchase decisions with little or no regard of what others "may" think. Who knows, they may be thinking "Gee, that __________ just made a really great choice. I should look into that."

 

I absolutely adore the Japanese commercials!! ^^
Super hybrid car!
Just a little bit a dubbin' and ta-da English commercial.

 

Are you a Limbaugh fan too? Why did you choose to use that term?