Gas is still too cheap

You know I hate paying a lot for petrol but I agree with you. Petrol here is over $6.00 per US gallon.

High prices tame peoples driving style and make people and industry think about ways to cut consumption but people have short memories and unless the price keeps climbing they become accustomed to the price and forget it is expensive. Think back to 50 cents per gallon fuel and when the price broke $1.00 people were outraged. Without price escalation people become complacent about oil and energy.

Of course high oil prices make alternatives look more affordable so this is good.
I'd love to see a 50 cent per gallon levy on fuel which is channelled 100% into renewable energy, not studies but actual solar and wind or similar installations. I think with such a levy in place over 20 to 50 years will see all stationary energy obtained from renewable sources.

 

Astrophysicist Thomas Gold was a member of the National Academy of Sciences and Professor of Astronomy at Cornell. His areas of interest and expertise included biophysics, space engineering and geophysics. His 1999 book "The Deep, Hot Biosphere", which followed his 1992 paper of the same name pulblished in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, presents a very plausable case for the abiogenic origins of coal and oil from the actions heat, pressure and of extreme pressure-tolerant, heat-tolerant bacteria on vast quantities of gases present far down in the Earth's crust.

The thrust of his idea (actually put forth by Soviet scientists first)
is that there is a virtually limitless amount of hydrocarbons potentially available due to the stellar constituents that originally formed the Earth. And those hydrocarbons, when acted on by certain bacteria deep within the mantle of the Earth, formed and are still forming the coal and oil deposits we now tap into.

Well worth the read, and for me enjoyable since it is not so technical that it takes a science degree to understand his reasoning and explainations.

In other words, Gold claims the world's petroleum supply is not 'running out', it is just originating deeper than the usable deposits we are currently tapping into, and spent oil wells and coal deposits are often slowly replenishing from those vast sources below. This is totally contrary to the claims of those scientists insisting petroleum deposits are from ancient plant and animal sources.

 

So we can assume that the finite size earth has within it an infinite amount of hydrocarbons? I guess if believing that helps you sleep at night power be to you.

 

I find it a stretch to equate 'virtually limitless' with 'infinite' as 'virtually' is a modifying word that is defined as "in essence or effect but not in fact", and alters the meaning of 'infinite' to correspond with the idiomatic two word description. --but I guess it depends on how one personally understands or interprets the definitions.

And actually do sleep quite well, neither believing nor disbelieving either theory of long chain hydrocarbon genesis until one a proven fact and not theory.

But I am amazed at the passion of the differing views and the comments elicited from both sides of the argument, ad hominem attacks issuing from both sides.

 

Regardless of how much of the stuff we can pump up and burn, until we get a handle on Co2 emissions, we should be reducing our usage!!! Cheaper oil only prolongs the coming agony! Get use to it, get over it, and move on to better energy!

Icarus

 

I will reword what I said then to reflect the virtual state of affairs.
So we can assume that the virtually finite size earth has within it a virtually infinite amount of hydrocarbons? I guess if believing that helps you sleep at night power be to you.

 

It won't matter. The cost of everything else is going to go way up, thus soaking up more of the family paycheck, so even if gas isn't as expensive as you'd like, it will still be expensive enough to make people conserve. Amtrak ridership is up. Locals are taking the trolley more.

I'm hoping for an assignment close enough that I can bike to work rather than drive. Bicycles for commuting rather than for pleasure are increasing. We already have curbside recycling and aggressive conservation programs for water and electricity.

 

Not enough going on in Washington to get to the bottom of why oil futures have increased 50% the past few months. You would think the Fed would be concerned.
My Sunday paper had no news stories on the subject today, which tells me the media isn't talking, either. Food prices have started to climb in the stores, and some think that's more about ethanol from corn than oil prices. No real discussion going on in the media about these issues.

 

it's lovely that gas prices are making people rethink their daily driving. but when you have to drive a certain amount, and you can't afford to buy a new car, then what?

we were recently forced to use a regular car again for almost 2 weeks, and it cost a substantial amount of what we live on per month. it scared me to think that some people out there are supporting families on what we're living on, AND have the extra cost of gas eating away at their usable income.

this month we're living on ramen and mac and cheese, and are still in the red thanks to that little 2 week hiatus our veggie burner took on us.

 

No one said that any of this would be easy or without pain. The pain felt by the working poor in this country has been ignored for so long, the price of fuel (see also heating fuel next winter!) is only one more straw.

What we have lacked for too long is leadership to confront the issue head on. AS many of us have said for so long,,if we had taken some more initiative in the 1970's we would be way further along to find solutions. We are now confronted with the double whammy of high oil prices just at the time we need to reduce Co2 emissions.

Everytime we miss an opportunity to REALLY fix it, it only gets harder, and indeed harder on those that can least afford it. Case in point, the working poor can't afford a new fridge for example, even though a new one will cost them way less in the long run. Yet we have political policy that doesn't address the real needs of society. Right now communities are faced with huge increases in transit ridership, and yet cities can't get funding from the Fed's to replace aging, warn out, inneficient busses because ALL the money has gone to Iraq!

Pogo said, "I have met the enemy and he is us!" Look in the mirror, and think about how you vote!

Icarus

 

In that case I guess it would be accurate to say you are virtually correct Patsparks.

 

Well I think eventually cars, driving cars, and owning cars will return to a hobby and benefit to the wealthy. It is headed that way now. If you have a car, it is difficult to convince me that you are truly poor. Poor is living under a bridge, eating rats. Poor is not a 10 year old car, and only a 19" color T.V.

I also am not unhappy with $4/gallon gas. Already I have seen significant changes here where I live. Many more scooters, and lots more bikes.

 

Let's be generous to the poor, however we describe them! IMHO your poor if you genuinely worried about where our next meal is coming from. I think your poor if one medical emergency will put you our of your house. I think your poor if you work harder, and get further behind.

Yes most of us can live on a little less, BUT, most of us posting here have little idea how the poor really live. The problem is in the last generation the number of poor people in North America gas continued to grow while the amount of assets controlled by the elite has continued to grow at the same time.

Icarus

PS To all those that have read what I have blatherred about over the years, understand that I recognize that I am a hypocrite. I try to walk the walk, but I do enjoy my middle class life as well. Beware those that don't recognize this in themselves.

T

 

Record corn prices mean more expensive meat and dairy.

"Brenneman's cost for feeding a single hog has shot up $30 in the past year because of record-high prices for corn and soybeans, the main ingredients in animal feed. Passing that increase on to consumers would tack an extra 15 cents per pound onto a pork chop.

It's a similar story for U.S. beef producers, who now spend a whopping 60-70 percent of their production costs on animal feed and are seeing that number rise daily as corn prices hover near an unprecedented $8 a bushel, up from about $4 a year ago.
"This is not sustainable. The cattle industry is going to have to get smaller," said James Herring, president and CEO of Amarillo, Tex.-based Friona Industries, which buys 20 million bushels of corn each year to feed 550,000 cattle.


Corn's prices were already rising before the floods, driven up 80 percent over the past year as developing countries like China and India scramble for grains to feed people and livestock. U.S. production of ethanol, an alternative fuel that can be made with corn, has also pushed prices higher, prompting livestock owners to lobby Washington to roll back ethanol mandates."



High gas prices mean less for groceries. As the price of meat goes up...people will eat less meat.

Farmers will also be cutting back on the cows, pigs, etc they raise because of the high cost of feed. They may also go back to alternatives....like smaller herds and growing their own feed....like grass.

Short term, I think we'll see a glut and low prices because farmers are slaughtering their animals to keep their costs down. But as the months go, the prices will go way up. That Thanksgiving Turkey is going to be more expensive this year than before.

So between the high price of oil and the floods, we may be seeing more than a political change in America.

 

There's an, exhibit in the Smithsonian Museum of Natural History, where they have an entire tree trunk, sawn off at the roots, standing on the floor, as if a tree were growing out of the floor. It's a piece of coal. My vague recollection is that they found it in a Pennsylvania anthracite mine around the turn of the last century. Really a stunning display. You have no idea what it is until you read the sign.

Here's a random site for an Illinois coal mine full of fossilized plants:

Fossilized rainforest found in coal mine - LiveScience - MSNBC.com

Or just google coal and fossilized and see what shows up.

That's pretty strong evidence that at least some coal is formed as traditionally believed, as the remains of plants.

I recall that oil companies did put this to the test in the late 1990s, drilling some very deep holes where their traditional geologists said they had no hope of finding oil or natural gas. They found none. Wish I could fine some citations to that effect, but I could not dredge them up.

Maybe some oil is formed this way. It's not beyond imagining. But until I see evidence of an oil field refilling itself on a human timescale, or until I see some successful empirical test of this demonstrating that the "abiogenic" oil exists in meaningful, accessible quantities, I'm going to discount it 100%.

Addendum: Here's a website that seems to have a pretty cogent discussion of it, including the description of that failed deep drilling project and analysis of the oilfields that are supposed to be refilling with abiotic oil.

No Free Lunch, Part 2: If abiotic oil exists, where is it?

 

Bacteria in the mantle? How would you sterilize something with these critters present?

I only caught that on the second reading.

 

If you'd like to know why we are paying >2x more than we should for oil, I'd suggest you watch the Bart Stupak US Rep D-MI House Committee
Oil Price Speculation.

Panel's opening statement video.

Basically there isn't a free market for oil..

Normally when people are willing to pay higher price, suppliers will increase supply to sell at higher price.
Ex. price for corn goes up, farmers plant more corn to maximize profits..


Problem, oil prices go up but supply stays the same. ..
Why?

1. First problem, about 75-80% of world supply is tied up by governments. Ex US has restricted 80% of its oil reserves from being drilled. The number one producer Russia has followed and has kicked BP out as well Which leaves OPEC and a few smaller producers. If anyone (oil companies) wanted to produce more they couldn't.

2. There isn't any reason to produce more. Actual demand hasn't increased. Although the speculators are buying oil futures, they never actually take delivery, which causes a fake demand driving prices higher.

3. Speculators know that physical supplies will not increase so when their contract expires they trade them in for new, those causing another rise in prices. Its a sure thing, basically a self fulfilling prophecy.

4. There's only a 5% margin requirement. As one panelist said, a speculator can invest $10kk at 9am and by 3pm make a profit of $3kk


4. No one is to blame. Most speculators are index fund managers, like those for our retirement accounts. Everyone wants part of the action so more money flows in driving price even higher. Kinda like the dot.com frenzy, a worthless POS company like AOL could have a huge market capitalization value.


Suggested remedies.

1. Open restrictions on drilling
2. Set limits on speculators verses physical users.
3. Increase margin requirements

 

No form of carbon based life could possibly live in the mantle. In fact, hydrocarbons cannot exist in the mantle. The temps and pressures are WAY WAY WAY too high for such things.