Toyota's long term sucess with prius will be short lived.

OK.....so...as fuel price goes up, the most fuel effecient car on the road becomes less desireable. Man, why didn't Toyota see that coming. What's wrong with their thinking?! They need to think more like you, and Detroit, and only work on "future" electric only cars. Yeah, I get it!!!

OH.....NOT!!!

get real

 

>>>When gas hits 6 dollars or more a gallon that approach will be worthless <<
That is BS.

It is still 1/2 to 1/3 of the cost of a ton of cars/ SUV's out there.
I think it will be more of a plus.
Steve

 

I feel the same way.

 

I think the immediate future is safe for the Prius, judging by what I read about demand for the car in the States and also here, from my own recent experience, in the UK. If oil prices really take off as predicted then used values will shore up very quickly.

But let's not forget something here - Toyota and other hybrid manufacturers aren't providing vehicles like the Prius for fun. True, it will ease any guilty consciences they have while producing huge numbers of vehicles from raw materials that go on to consume even more raw materials. Yet whoever is first to market with a genuinely "green" car, one that can still afford people the freedom to travel around while minimising damage to the environment, won't just be the world's new best friend. They'll be making a staggering amount of money too.

 

Check this out. Speculation it isn't:

The Oil Drum: Europe | Why oil costs over $120 per barrel

 

Out of pure unadulterated GREED we will innovate to new fuel sources simply because there's Bazillions of dollars to be made by the first one(s) to markets a solid supply of some alternate fuel.

Consider the money being made by Big Oil today. Now think of getting in on the ground floor of a startup that has a key new technology that can convert [.............] to fuel at an economical cost in massive quantities ( billions of gallons )

Today we use 7.0+ BILLION bbls per year of oil with 60% going to fuel. That's about 175 Billion gallons of fuel each year. Sell a Billion anythings and you're rich forever.

The desire to tap into this massive need will drive the development of alt fuels. Then the Prius can be powered by a variety of renewables.

 

First: Hyperbole will get little serious consideration.

When gas hits $6 a gallon..

This could occur as early as next summer. At that time the bulk of the US population; no, the vast majority of the US population; no, well over 90% of the US population will still be driving 20th Century vintage gassers, SUVs and trucks. Not for long perhaps but 90% will still be in their current vehicles.

But if the Prius, ancient as it is, is the best we have at our disposal what would be our monthly fuel costs? Let's see....15000 miles annually / 12 months = 1250 miles per month. The next Prius will be at 50 mpg definitely ( with no PHEV or EV addition ) so 1250 mi / 50 mpg = 25 gallons per month.

25 gallons per month!!!!!!!!!!! That's $150 a month for fuel. Hardly a budget buster methinks.

Myth No 1 .... BUSTED.... $6 per gallon fuel will not break us and it will not make the parallel hybrid Prius obsolete. Sold Out maybe but not obsolete.

EVs are definitely a vehicle of the future to get us free of oil. Never a doubt about that.

BUT... Myth #2... ( the GM Myth )... EVs and EREVs will solve all our problems and the populace will run with wide open arms and wallets and bank accounts to line up for the latest and greatest.

Let's look closer.
Battery production. Worldwide, maybe, there is capacity for 2 million vehicles. OK double that. In the US we buy 30 million new and used vehicles annually. China is catching us and Japan has slipped to 3rd. Europe is a strong 4th. 4 million battery powered units will be somewhat less than 10% of the big users needs. No EVs and EREVs and PHEVs will be niche vehicles for a premium price for sometime to come. GM just announced that the Volt EREV will retail for ................. $40,000 !!!!!!! That's not exactly in Joe and Jane autoworkers budget now is it. Sorry folks this superior technology is just not for you chumps, err.., less well off.

But what if I currently live in a 47 floor high rise on Manhattan's upper East Side and make well over 6 figures on Wall Street. Just where exactly do I plug in my EV/EREV/PHEV? on the street you say? Oh I see these are not for me either then?

Yo!.. I live in South Central and I'm sick and tired of paying the man $6 a gallon for my Mama's Impala with the bouncing shocks. I want one of those EVs or EREVs or PHEVs too, yo. I got bills to pay too.

Sorry, Sir, you need a secure outlet from your house to your vehicle in order to charge it overnight.

Net result: Evs, EREVs and PHEVs are going to be directed to and built for the well-to-do upper middle class that lives in the suburbs. Others need not apply.

Myth No 2... BUSTED... The population in general will not flock to, nor be able to use, nor be able to afford the latest and greatest EV technology for some time to come.

Myth No 3.... the parallel Prius will become obsolete soon as EV technology surpasses it.

BUSTED....
For the vast vast majority of the population that cannot afford nor have access to EV technology, the Prius will in fact become the mainstay and the basis of all basic personal transportation for the next 20+ years.

 

Prius may be obsolete, but only less so than anything else.

Ev's are great, but the energy still has to come from somewhere! How much electricity comes from coal, oil or natural gas? Yes, Ev are more efficient use of BTU (or calories if you wish) but we still need to realize the days of all cheap energy are gone,,,probably for good.

Icarus

 

The Prius gets about twice the mpg of a regular fuel efficient car of 25 mpg.
So $4 gas is equivalent to $2 gas for a Prius owner. So gas would have to be $8 to be $4 gas to a Prius owner. That would be expensive.
Right now, gas is overpriced at $4. It can't get much higher, or there will be a Tea Party in Washington.

 

I'm new to the forums so excuse me if I am reiterating what may have already been discussed, but the upcoming Chevy Volt (and perhaps the next gen. Prius) feature plug in hybrid technology that will enable it to go about 40 miles without even using the gas engine. It takes about 4-7 hours to charge, depending on the plug in voltage (220V vs 110V). I had the opportunity to sit in a clay prototype of the Volt. What's interesting is that GM is counting on tomorrow's battery technology to make this car viable.

 

I'd like to ask the OP a question.
Which new car is more a step toward all electric cars, a Prius or a Pontiac G8?

Prius isn't the destination and Toyota are aware of that, but unlike non hybrid diesel and petrol vehicles Toyota in developing the Prius did far more work toward a viable all electric car than GM did when developing the G8 or latest Suburban for that matter. They developed better control systems, batteries, motors, inverters, body shape and weight savings in a quest to get more miles from each gallon of petrol.

The next step is (as seen from this point in time) a plug in hybrid and beyond that an electric vehicle. Current technology doesn't allow an electric vehicle with acceptable range for most people, hence the need to move forward not in giant leaps but in steps allowing the benefits of each step to be accepted by the population prior to moving on. Ultimately personal transport will disappear and mass transit will improve to a level where it is perfectly acceptable to the masses.

Oh and while we are at it jeremy wayne wilson, I currently pay over $6.00US per gallon for petrol and I'm paying out about $100AU per month for fuel for my commute in my Prius. Can you please tell me where I can get finance at $100 per month repayment for a new car?

 

Prius is a mature product....and thats why I switch recently as well. I think Prius / Hybrid in gerneral will be the Norm of convention vehicles by 2010.

while EV, plug-ins and/or Hydrogen...is where Prius ideas is 10~13 years ago as emerging products.

As Hybrid owners we should feel fortunate ...making the leap on time to avoid hard-hitting by the rocket'd gas price....compare to many that didn't switch and stuck with gas-guzzling beast-vehicles....some ends up paddling
(for example seattle)

EVs.....Hydrogen & Plug-ins is still have their rough edges & limitations. Otherwise Toyota will have adopted these technology in production already. Toyota tend test-and-retest for years with 150% certain before launching their new products... which protects their reputation & customer safety.... I don't feel like to rush into emerging technologies....unless they proven working in the market place for few years.

As for Chevy-Volt....lets just hope they are not using Mxxxsoft Launch Strategy.... Sell 1st & Patch later.... we are talking about lives & company reputation on the line.

Speaking of EVs it will be awhile before long range battery system that can drive over few hundred miles without re-charging. While regular Hybrid can do so...besides gas station is very accessible. Hybrid should be around for next 10~15 years...and so is Prius brand.

PS: My next car (8~9 yrs from now)...quite possible a EV or plug-in Hybrid. EV long-range Battery-technology should be mature by then.

 

(Red text added to quote)
I was going on the old price but at current pricing it is about $120 to $140 per month. I drive more than the average Australian, I drive 22,000 to 25,000km per year while the average Australian drives under 20,000km per year.
I use 4.3 litres per 100km commuting and I was only counting commuting, I have covered 30,000km in my Prius this year but I did take a couple of holidays.

Could it be that you drive much more than the average motorist or you don't get as good mileage as I do?

Maybe you need to get a Prius and see how well you could do?

 

"Future BEV". Do you have one yet? If not, how are you getting around now?

 

I am using 24 gallons of fuel a month, a co-rider to work brings my cost to $12.50 aweek right now, with the segway making up the around town stuff. Mileage is consistently 50 to 54.5 on a 76 mile, per day round trip commute...there is nothing transportation wise right now or in the immediate future more viable for me than these systems...at this point i would be hesitant to consider trading for any other platform. I do 12 to 15,000 miles per year and believe i have 8-9 years of vehicle life left dependent on dealer parts support. Hard to believe any of these press releases on new vehicles...those of us born in the 50's were told we'd be flying to work using our personal jet packs by 2008....
Froley

 

When the BEVs are hitting their stride how much will your Scion really be worth? I mean if a Prius will be worthless how will a full gas car compare?

Personally I hope Prius is superseded by much greener technology which is affordable and sustainable. Nothing would make me happier.