I happened upon this site from a link on cartalk. http://www.cars.com/news/stories/112204_st...ry&aff=national The gist of the article is that there need to be more battery manufacturers or the ones that are already out there need to do some major expansion, otherwise there will be a significant damper on the hybrid market. I particular liked this prediction: "J.D. Power and Associates estimates that by 2007, about 410,000 hybrid vehicles will be sold in the USA, up from an estimated 70,000 this year and about 47,500 in 2003. By 2011, about 35 hybrid models will be on the market, predicts Anthony Pratt, a forecaster for J.D. Power. "There will be hybrids in every segment." Do you think it's happening? Do you think the hybrid has now reached that "critical mass" of acceptance that's been talked about on Priuschat? Mark
Yes. However, there is still enough public jitteriness that a hybrid version of the olds diesel debacle can do some real damage to public perception. Sadly, it looks like the same people that brought us that mess, is headed into the same cliff as back then. Do a bit of research into GMs "hybrid" systems. The VUE, which will be the next likely release, is a 42 volt, belt driven system with a mere 10% improvement in fuel economy.
I think that GM better get it's act together fast or the public will abandon US maufacutres like never before, and Chrysler, they are really gonna be in trouble. Just think what a neat car the PT Cruiser could be if it was a hybrid, it could once again be a car that Chrysler couldn't make enough off....but alas the US car industry seems to be so short sighted.
The guest speaker at the San Diego club meeting over the weekend was the executive engineer at Toyota, Torrance. I asked if battery supply was a critical path in future expansion and he replied that the shortages were short term, a matter of deciding to invest in more plant capacity. He also had an amusing anectdote: it seems Ford and Nissan are using the same supplier and implied that Ford wasn't getting its share.
i think you can also assume that the bean-counters at GM don't want to pay royalties or licensing rights to any other manufacturers, so they had to come up with their own (mediocre) approach. like the ford hybrid that drives the A/C compressor off the engine only.... DUH! Arnold was trying to encourage Toyota to build Prii in Colly-for-nyah... i'd suggest he also talk to the battery manufacturers and have them put up a plant nearby, too! ah, but what do i know...
i read an article somewheres, was a paper copy, that storage technology maybe very very different 10 years from now. batteries as we know them now, will not exist in new equipment. now all this was speculative, but many scientists feel that we have not come close as far as the amount of charge that can be stored.
Re Battery supply. It's my understanding that the battery is the main bottleneck for increased production of hybrids.
The Classic Prius also has the engine only A/C compresor. Toyota is simply ahead of the game on this one.
I still think a hybrid A/C compressor (either electric or ICE driven) is the way to go. If you know what an electric clutch is and were the Prius A/C comp. mounts a pulley with bearing and a clutch like the Classic and just have the computer tell the A/C system which drive to use. If your in stealth it's electric and if the ICE is running it's engine driven. Best of both worlds as the electric system isn't as efficient converting ICE (gasoline) generation to battery charge as the ICE is driving accessories directly.
OTOH a belt-driven A/C compressor will usually not be spinning at it's optimal RPMs. Somewhere on Toyota's technical site (near http://www.toyota.co.jp/en/tech/environment/index.html ) there's a chart showing the efficiency benefit of their electric compressor.
The one thing that will make poor-performance hybrids a non-issue would be oil shortages and (thus) higher prices. When people are desperately looking for cars that use less gas, 10% improvements in fuel economy aren't going to cut it. I think oil shortages are a given; the question is, when does things really get tight (given the variables of worldwide demand, consumption, technologies for reducing demand, and global economics and politics.)
