Prius Future Resale Value

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Prianista @ Oct 20 2007, 05:23 PM) [snapback]528253[/snapback]</div>

Just like the prices of non-hybrids plummeted when hybrids came on the market?!?

If this is your fear and you want to dump your '07 with leather and nav now for $12k before it becomes worthless, just drop me a line.

PA P

 

See thread with title "Clueless Journalist".

 

PA P that was a GOOD ONE you had me chuckling! If the resale of my Prius isn't any good then I'll just drive it into the ground. I'm sure it will last along time.

 

I'm going to drive my Prius into the ground even if the resale is high! I wish I was rich enough to plonk down another "half car" amount of money ever few years or so just to have a "new car"

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Prianista @ Oct 20 2007, 05:23 PM) [snapback]528253[/snapback]</div>

It's amazing that Warren Brown could be an automotive journalist for decades and still be this clueless (IMHO).

Personnally, I would think that the Prius's resale value will be primarly determined by two factors.

1. The price of gas. If gas prices spike to say >$3 or >$4 a gallon (a.k.a., superspike). Even Warren might actually catch on that high mileage cars will command a premium price if oil superspikes - especially considering that the supply of both new as well as used 50mpg Prius's are limited. Granted if Gas drops below $2 a gallon for an extended period of time, then Prius demand and it's resale price will certainly drop.

2. Introduction of a new and improved Prius and/or better competition from other automakers. For example, if Honda (or Toyota) starts shipping a 50+mpg car comparable in size to the existing Prius, that offers improved handling and/or better acceleration. Then the value of both new and used Prius's will likley drop. Of course if gas prices spike and the demand for ANY 50mpg cars exceeds supply from all automakers, then all bets are off regard Prius resale value.

Side notes: High mpg diesels such as the upcoming 2008 common rail diesel Jetta should be included along with hybrids. Possibly VW will be able to deliver the new common rail diesels in volume (in the USA). But from what little I've read on tdiclub.com, it looks like VW is planning on loading up the common rail diesel Jettas with options and then sell them at a premium price instead of offering a stripped down (and low cost) diesel rabbit that certainly would offer strong competition (to a Prius). Also, Warren implies that biofuels will hold down gas prices. Obviously, Warren hasn't caught on that ethanol produced using current technology has absolutely no hope of significantly increasing the US domestic fuel supply.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Prianista @ Oct 20 2007, 03:23 PM) [snapback]528253[/snapback]</div>

The thing about old laptops is that software advances so fast that an old laptop can't run the latest greatest stuff. Vista, new games, and other programs demand more and more resources and newer better parts (USB 2.0, bigger hard drives, media readers, DVD burners, 802.11h capabilities, Bluetooth, HDTV tuners) that collectively render older hardware pretty useless.

Laptop batteries have very little to do with the resale value of old laptops. It's all about compatibility with advancing technology. If you have an older wireless card in your laptop, your computer may not work as well with your new router, if at all. If you only have a 3.5" floppy drive, then you won't be able to install the 200MB program on a burned CD. If you only have a 10 GB hard drive, you may not be able to store all of the music and movies you download from iTunes.

With the Prius, it's very different. You don't have to worry about a car no longer being compatible with anything. You will still be able to get from point A to point B and do so with greater efficiency than most of the other cars on the road.

It's sort of like asking if the non-hybrid resale market would completely dry up with the introduction of hybrid vehicles. It hasn't; people are still willing to buy a used sedan and the fact that the conventional vehicle market still accounts for 90% of new sales is pretty telling.

Granted I'm sure that the newer hybrids will be in much bigger demand, and the old Prii may not have quite the used car pricing magic they once had, but I have no fear that it will still sell for a reasonable price.

 

I'd just like to point out that this journalist, and anyone who is concerned that he might be right, might want to do a quick internet search for the Blue Book value of the Prius. I'm sure it varies from area to area, but I've had to do it recently when my '04 was in an accident. I had just over 45,000 miles on an '04 (package 4 I think it was at the time - didn't have SKS) that was sticker at $23,000. The Blue Book ranged from $16,000 to $21,000 for that car and the insurance settled for just over $19,000. If that's "losing value like last year's laptop" then I need to go find my old computers and make a fortune.

Seriously, in the mid-term I double these cars will lose their resale value at a rate greater than standard gasoline vehicles (and will likely stay higher longer if gas prices keep the demand up) and if you drive it for 10+ years until the body falls apart around the engine, who cares if the resale value is low.

My two cents anyway....

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(joe1347 @ Oct 20 2007, 07:24 PM) [snapback]528320[/snapback]</div>

Our gas prices in Northern Cal (Sacramento) are at $3 / gallon right now. I expect to see $4 / gallon sometime next spring if not sooner.

I expect that the resale value of large pickups and SUVs will go into the toilet once we see $4 to $5 / gal. Maybe Mr. Brown should write an article about that.

 

When did laptop use NiMH battery by the way? I only remember them using Li-ion.

The way laptop and Hybrid use battery are very different. Laptop charge and discharge while hybrid use short burst and maintain at ideal state of charge.

 

The Utility companies will be buying all of the battery packs of the hybrids. That is if they can get them. Toyota will be recycling theirs.

As to resale, so far resale value has exceeded ICE counterparts. I'm not worried at all. There will always be someone looking to buy a used Prius when a new model comes out. There are people now buying Gen I because they don't want to spend the money on a Gen II, new or used. And when Gen III comes out, there will be plenty of demand for Gen II to keep it's prices up too.

In other words, the writer is a doofus.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(usbseawolf2000 @ Oct 20 2007, 09:55 PM) [snapback]528358[/snapback]</div>

I bought a Toshiba back in 94 that had a NiMH battery. Battery life sucked as did the rest of the computer.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Prianista @ Oct 20 2007, 05:23 PM) [snapback]528253[/snapback]</div>

His logic seems to be related to the notion that future performance of the Lion battery will make all hybrids get much better gas milage than the current hybrids using the NiMH battery, and this somehow will make used car buyers select new hybrids (rather than a used model). This in turn will cause used hybrid prices to drop. This logic is flawed because:

1) used car purchasers that are interested in a given year (ex. 2004) will compare the 2004 Prius to other 2004 model year cars. What they will find is that the Prius gets much better gas milage and has a superior repair record.

2) Many people prefer to purchase used cars and that group favors those that have low maintenance and operational costs (ex. gas). These are two key characteristics of the Prius. In fact, some people have been waiting for the Prius to age so they can buy a used one.

3) Competitor vehicles to the Prius will likely not exceed the MPG of the Prius any time soon even with Lithium Ion battery chemistry. For example, in year 2011 why pay $25k for a new (non-Prius) hybrid when the same MPG is availble in a used 2004 Prius at half that cost? In other words, the inability of competitors to exceed the current generation Prius capabilities is likely to help keep the resale value of the Prius high.

4) Supply and demand will determine prices and since Prius satisfaction surveys have topped the charts (highest of all vehicles including luxury cars) for the last four years - few will be available for resale.

The fact that the Prius has been a phenomenon car (i.e. winning so many awards, gaining such a large share of the hybrid market, such high satisfaction survey results, getting so much free press - such as the Prius milage broadcast in Mr. Brown's article) will all help keep the Prius in the limelight and purchase/repurchase interest high for a long time.

 

You can tell that the guy is an idiot because he thinks it's important to know whether Li-Ion or Li-Po batteries can be retrofitted into an existing car. Very few people would ever want to do that because once they perform the net present value calculations, they'll find they'll never recoup their investment. Also, the increases in fuel economy from more advanced batteries are likely to be incremental, and not make current hybrids obsolete. I bet the mfgrs see more benefit in the packaging (smaller lighter battery) than in the performance.

 

When the 2004 Prius came out, the waiting list was so long that the very few sellers could demand new-car prices, or nearly so, from one or another of the many eager buyers, impatient of the waiting lists. As supply caught up with demand, this effect diminished, and when lithium batteries appear in a future generation of Prius, resale values of the present generation Prius will decline again, to be closer to the depreciation of other Toyotas.

Meanwhile, as gas prices rise, resale value on gasoline cars (including the Prius) will decline roughly as the ratio of the price of gas to the mpg of the car. Resale value of a Prius will decline; resale value of a typical family sedan will decline twice as much, and resale value of an SUV will decline four times as much.

When nobody can afford gas at all, gas-powered cars (including the Prius) will have no resale value at all, and there will be nothing but EVs and bicycles on the roads.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(joe1347 @ Oct 20 2007, 10:24 PM) [snapback]528320[/snapback]</div>

I'm often the burr in the saddle of complacency but I think we'll see $4-$5 a gall fuel before we ever see $2 fuel again. From there It's a small spiral to $6 or $8 a gallon in the next 10 yrs. We are now just entering the foothills of what I think will be a very very difficult time for all of the western world due to lack of fuel and soaring prices.

I consider my Prius as my insurance policy against raging fuel inflation, spot shortages and rationing. At 500 mi+ on 10 gal I ( we ) are in much better shape than somebody who might be limited to 20 gal a week at 16 mpg.

I'd plan for fuel to be over $4 by next summer and then higher after that.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Prianista @ Oct 20 2007, 05:23 PM) [snapback]528253[/snapback]</div>

What he doesn't understand very well for an automotive writer is that all 'old' vehicles lose their value realative to newer, better, improved models. But that doesn't mean the vehicles are worthless. A 2004 Camry is not as valuable as a 2008 Camry but it still is a very very efficient functional vehicle - at the right price.

A 2004 Prius in 2010 will be 6 yrs old and presumably worth about 30-40% of its original value. That's what happens to preowned vehicles. They get surpassed by new technologies and valued at a discount. But they arne't worth ZERO!! If the vehicle is still functioning then it should still be getting about 48 mpg which would make it the 2nd or 3rd most efficient vehicle on the road at that time.

However as noted previously if fuel spikes or superspikes into the $6/gallon range in 2010 or 2012 then any 50 mpg vehicle may command a premium over it's 'normal used value'. He writes like he's just out of journalism school and never seen a real world situation in his life.

 

i think if gas prices reach 10 dollars a gallon, the value of all used priuses will go up, not only that, there will be such high demand for the car

 

Soon the weakening dollar will force Toyota to raise the price of the Prius in the US and that will make used Priuses more valuable here. Only when Priuses are ten years old will their be major battery problems and those cars will have less value. The original version of the Prius sold in the US still has great resale value compared to cars of its price and age.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Prianista @ Oct 20 2007, 04:23 PM) [snapback]528253[/snapback]</div>

So where would computer technology be today if everyone waited until the "ultimate" computer is invented? Of course technology is evolving but I'm not waiting to enjoy the fruits of what we have already developed!