http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...cnchina107a.xml By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard The Chinese government has begun a concerted campaign of economic threats against the United States, hinting that it may liquidate its vast holding of US treasuries if Washington imposes trade sanctions to force a yuan revaluation. Two officials at leading Communist Party bodies have given interviews in recent days warning - for the first time - that Beijing may use its $1.33 trillion (£658bn) of foreign reserves as a political weapon to counter pressure from the US Congress. It would also cause a spike in US bond yields, hammering the US housing market and perhaps tipping the economy into recession. It is estimated that China holds over $900bn in a mix of US bonds. The threats play into the presidential electoral campaign of Hillary Clinton, who has called for restrictive legislation to prevent America being "held hostage to economic decicions being made in Beijing, Shanghai, or Tokyo". She said foreign control over 44pc of the US national debt had left America acutely vulnerable.
It's jsut a bluff. China can't afford for the U.. to feel the effects of that kind of action any more tan we can. Even with a global market China's economy absolutely depends on continued U.S. prosperity. That said, you never can underestimate the Chicoms, but in the long run it would be better for us if they did do something like that. We would take one big hit, shift all our manufacturing to India and bar trade with China, effectively removing about 40% of it's revenue. Tell me an economy that can survive that one. oooohh Ugly.
We won't even talk about Saudi Arabia that own the other half of the debt. The Chinese could just tweak it a little bit to see how much we get hurt and let Congress know who's actually boss.
2 comments: When an entity decides to buy 1 trillion dollars of US bonds, do they expect to some day be paid back? What I'm getting at is, has anyone or anything who has borrowed several billion dollars ever paid that amount back in full? These ungodly sums of "fiat money" just become income streams and promises for future goods and services(more like future promises of indentured servitudes). It creates inflation that's real(not the BS CPI measurement) that affects the vast majority of people. This is unsustainable and this way of trade, debt, and money is going to hit the fan. When we americans wise up to the BS threat that the arabic people pose, we'll have a ready-made new enemy called known as the "Chinese Hegemony." That'll get the people here going. They're a non-christian, different colored skin, different language(though english is mandatory in the Chinese educational system) foe who will threaten the "way of life" in america. We might not land on the beaches of Hong Kong, but we'll have a cold war part deux. We'll pour more money into new arms races on land, air, sea, and space. And we'll still not have health care for everyone.
As pointed out, The Chinese are just as screwed as us when the current setup fails. The Chinese manufacturing craze won't last. I expect a massive wave of cancer accross China in the coming decades. They will face the same peak energy problems. But in addition, they have an overpopulation problem, a growing pollution problem, and an inability to feed its masses with its own food supply.
Ummm, if we falter as a World Supplier of stuff due to a recession, and China fills the gap to the extent that we become superfluous in the grand scheme of things, THAT seems like the time to worry about paying old notes...
That won't happen. US food production is too important and will never become superfluous. Unless no one will sell us oil and we turn our exportable leftover food into fuel! Cheap plastic toys (esp. lead painted) are what's NOT that important. In a recession, many of those products simply won't be of interest to US consumers. US recession = China recession.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(mikepaul @ Aug 8 2007, 02:37 PM) [snapback]492572[/snapback]</div> We can not even cover the interest on our debts.We operate with a budget deficit.The $9 trillion debt is the legacy of Reagan ,Bush,GWBush.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(burritos @ Aug 8 2007, 10:50 AM) [snapback]492500[/snapback]</div> First: The China threat is just that a threat a bluff, they would be hurt just as bad as we would if not worse and they don't want that since a collapse of its economy would likely lead to civil war. Second: the "arabic" threat is not BS, it is the only REAL threat eU.S. faces (notice I said treat een though the U.S faces a otof problems ie. pollution, dollar vaule, energy dependence yada yada yada) The arabic threa has been PROVEN as a fact and not "consensu" like man made global warming (or climate cange) as th isalmists have REPEATEDLY launched deadly attack against the U.S. ad espousea desire to do so again! p.s. can someone get thepelcheck workbecae I am a horrible typist.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(burritos @ Aug 8 2007, 12:50 PM) [snapback]492500[/snapback]</div> Reminds me of a Sopranos episode where Hesh is worried that Tony will kill him after Hesh lent Tony too much money.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(mikepaul @ Aug 8 2007, 02:37 PM) [snapback]492572[/snapback]</div> I agree; those notes are sort of like one giant ARM. Everything's cool as long as the value of what they're leveraged against keeps going up. If it doesn't...then we (or our children and grandchildren) all have a problem. To say that this isn't even remotely possible is, I think, not being totally realistic.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Hummerhonda @ Aug 13 2007, 05:32 PM) [snapback]494966[/snapback]</div> So Lets See " Tax And Spend DEMS OR Charge and Spend GOP??? I like to save the intrest charges each month, so Guess I'll Go with the DEMS.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Darwood @ Aug 9 2007, 08:32 AM) [snapback]492601[/snapback]</div> Hmmm, you might want to check some of the USDA figures from the past 10 years. US food imports have been increasing twice as fast as exports for over a decade (in spite of protectionist tariffs on imports to the US). I believe the US has been a Net Importer of food for the past 2 or 3 years.
That's a result of economics and free trade. Not a result of the ability to grow food. The US has one of the highest % of arable land to inhabitants. The middle east and overpopulated China are dependant on food imports, whereas the US imports to save/make money. We also probably waste far more food than any other nation and we probably eat the highest % of beef and other expensive food.
