Toyota Will Delay Lithium Battery Intro in Hybrids

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(MickeyA @ Jun 14 2007, 05:16 PM) [snapback]461827[/snapback]</div>

Who cares? All that matters is that it is real and will blow the Prius away! The 575K Pri in the US dont' have a chance! :blink:

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(malorn @ Jun 14 2007, 03:26 PM) [snapback]461800[/snapback]</div>

I'd expect nothing less from you but making WAGs about some other companies decision without stating, somehow, that your speculation is a WAG.

And I also expect nothing less from you than being a shill for GM.

Please tell everyone on PC where we can buy a Volt, NOW. I'm sure there will be PCers that will run out and buy one even with GM's reputation.

As I see it, until GM puts the Volt on sale to the general public, it is nothing more than another concept car, and you are just passing gas. :lol:

 

How come nobody responded to my thread about the same thing 2 weeks ago?

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(mywhitenoise @ Jun 14 2007, 03:36 PM) [snapback]461912[/snapback]</div>

I hate to be the one to break it to you... but it's because of your bad breath

 

Hi All,

The common (who knows how common?) knowledge regarding the Japanese system and the American systems of technology, is that the Japanese system results in the best development of exisiting technology, while the American system comes up with the revolutionary ideas. If a technologist in Japan can put a line of reasoning together and end up with a product - it hapens, and fast! But, if there is very sketchy a to b progression, or accidental (from a buisness point of view, But in reality how accidental is it really after someone spends a good part of their life in a field and then comes up with sometihing out of left field ? ) results that revolutionize a product or industry - its usually from the American / European system. A good example of this is the Prius transmission - aero-space engineers at TRW working well out of their market almost 30 years ago.

You can only go so far on existing technology. That is the case with batteries right now.

On the subject of cars - this is all viewed through frosted glass. Because, its like that movie about the pool sharks, at least in the US. The US executives will just not play their best technology game. They seem to think they can engineer the marketplace, rather than let the marketplace pick the winner - too risky for them! Evidence for this is the Partnership for a Next Generation Vehicle program (PNGV) - then never brought any of these cars to market!

None of the companies in the west with the best battery technology have the independant buisness capability to go after the car market. They have to have 5 to 10 years of working capital (which means a deep ownership of some money making large volume product in a lucrative market), with already available production facitilies, and processes. Most car companies are going to want to see this, before they risk building 100K cars that wont run without somebodies specific battery. As typical component companies, these battery companies are sucked dry of research/development capital by their direct marketing customers demands for the lowest price. Which is why this technology is rarely developed in such companies, that are usually founded on a technology jump.

As batteries are out there in the realm of black-magic technology, its the 99% persperation that leads to the 1% of insight that moves things along. Possibly big computers, and computational chemistry will change this. And, so it goes. But there is a just as good a chance that the next great battery idea will come from a holey pants grad student or proffessor, with a flash of genius. Its very difficult to manufacture such insight.

In the Toyota congomerate, that 51% share in the battery company allow Toyota to say " just do it". Same thing in the electronics company they own. GM should have never have devested Delphi! With the NiMH battery - a demonstrated technology Matsushita could just do it. And then they had to pay off the Ovshinky's debt collectors, in the end. That is the shame of the west and the east technology systems.

If GM does finally play their best game, the recent results of American battery research will probably give Toyota a very good run. What might be telling, is a licensing agreement between the Altai-Nano and A123's of the world for the rights to production of vehicle batteries by Matsushita.

 

Hello All,

I'm one of those individuals who was sitting on the fence for the 'new' Prius. Upon hearing the info. about the delayed release, I went back to my local dealer to purchase a 2007 pkg 6 w/ leather for approximately $26,500. As I drove in, I noticed an '05' on the lot. I learned it was a 2005 pkg 6/cloth with 45,000 miles on it for $19,995. I put a down payment to hold it for $17,500 (before tax/title, etc.) It seems like a good deal but I'm new to the Prius world. I checked out comparables on Edmunds and some other used car sites and it 17,500 seems to be a good price (from a dealer).

My reasoning is:

1) I really want the new technology, so I plan on upgrading asap.

2) We are a family of five with a 2003 Chevy conversion van (good luck w/ the mpg! Great for long trips to the Adirondacks though) and a 1994 Mitsubishi Diamante with 189,000 miles (has been used as a third car) and a 2006 Harley (my commute to work takes me through horse country/30 mpg). A lease on my Jeep Grand Cherokee Overland High Output Engine (really bad mpg/got it out of my system) was up in February. I read about the proposed 2008 Prius and decided to use the Diamante on a daily basis figuring the 2008's would be available in the Fall. I'm guessing there are alot of people in the same boat, so Toyota is saying 2010 to get people (me) off the fence. So, I'm thinking this is a good plan for now as the Mitsubishi should be dying at about the same time the next generation Prius' come to market (my gut tells me 2009). Hence, the 2005 will become our 3rd car and the next gen Prius my main ride.

3) I want to personally support hybrid technology and set a neighborly example ASAP as a matter of personal philosophy.

4) Given I was getting approx 12 to 15 mpg with the high output Jeep, tripling my gas mileage is still a grand slam homerun while waiting for the next gen technology.

Does anyone want to talk me out of buying a used Prius in favor of a new 2007?

Aside from not having a backup camera nor an MP3 input (Damn!!), are there any other major reasons to buy a 2007 over the used 2005? The 05 (03Q30- burgundy type color) is still under warranty, seems to drive like a new one, and aside from some paint blemishes, is clean)

I Googled info on the 2005's and found it had two recalls. The steering recall has me most concerned, but I plan on getting documentation from the dealer proving the problem was fixed.

Am I missing something? All opinions welcomed!!! Thanking you in advance for your time....

btw- I found PC via Google and love it. Thanks to all for all the great info!!!

I CAN'T WAIT TO DRIVE ONE OF THESE ON A DAILY BASIS (Harley aside)!?!?!?!

Alex

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(efusco @ Jun 14 2007, 11:01 AM) [snapback]461611[/snapback]</div>

I love Toyota but they have dropped a few balls. One of them is the Scion Xb. Auto design cycles are 3-4 years long and back then they felt the Scion Xb should grow. That was a dumb move. The new one is much heavier and gets much worse mpg. It now gets 22mpg city, 28 highway. Pretty bad compared to the old one.

Altairnano and A123 systems make LI batteries that would work in a Prius and could be made quite safe. They just are not cheap enough for Toyota to use in the Prius.

 

Despite the line about safety in the press release, my gut says that the real reason is battery longevity.. I've done the design due-diligence on battery systems for telecom, and while the application is not the same (infrequently-used backup, which is arguably gentler than the daily charge/discharge of an automotive application), we still ended up rejecting Li-Ion battery technology in favor of traditional battery technology.. The main issue was that of cost and longevity, especially under high current drain conditions.. Even in a backup role, the Li Ion batteries do not have as high a charge cycle count as possible with other battery technolgies, and you have to massively overspec the battery capacity to accomodate high current discharges..

I'm not convinced that the partial-discharge scheme that has been so successful with NiMH batteries will be applicable and work to extend Li-Ion life.. Some of the literature I've seen seems to suggest that Li-Ion chemistry views *any* charge, even a partial charge, as counting towards its lifetime (ie, whether you charge the battery all the way 'til it's full or just to 80%, it' still considered a charge cycle as far as number of lifetime charge cycles goes).. This means that Li-Ion may be best suited for plug-in EV usage where you can benefit from its ultra-high energy density for vehicle range, but it is not necessarily the best battery technology for a primarily gasoline-based hybrid system as if this is true, the battery would be killed in a year or so due to using up all the charging cycles vs. the amazing lifetime of the existing NiMH batteries..

Personally, I'm quite happy with the decision to continue with NiMH batteries for the time being.. NiMH technology for EV is quite mature and costs are comparatively low, so if they can design a next generation Prius that improves on mileage even more while retaining the low cost and proven lifetime of the NiMH, I'll be first in line at the dealer for the 2008 model..

 

Your reputation is based on what you do, not what you say your going to do. I think at this point Toyota is winning the game, they've put up. GM ,Ford and Chrysler have shown just how serious they are about high mileage vehicles. Six years and a bunch of promises and bandaids, go big three! I think I speak for everyone on this site when I say this gives us no joy putting down our own car mfg's, but these guys have to get their act together or they're going to lose it. Malorn, why don't you get on GM's case instead of Toyota's and get your head out of the sand. By the way, I own a Duramax. You should be very concerned about the new Tundra......

 

This "safety" concern article is also BS because Toyota ALREADY has lithium-ion batteries on the roads in Japan and has done since 2005.

The Japan market Toyota Vitz has an intelligent stop-start feature, which is powered by an onboard high-power lithium-ion battery. This has been on the roads in the hands of ordinary buyers in Japan for years.

To avoid thermal runaway problems of cobalt based electrodes, Toyota uses the LiNO system (not cobalt or iron phosphate) for the Vitz battery. This cobalt story is just a rouse.

http://www.carlist.com/autonews/2005/autonews_188.html

The REAL reason why they are delaying this is because they are (rightly) terrified that GM is about to overtake them with the vastly superior nanothech battery.

If GM signs an exclusive deal with A123/Altair and Toyota can't get their hands on this type of battery, then GM would have immediately leapfrogged Toyota dramatically in the critical PHEV technology race. As this impacts hugely on potential sales of vehicles from about 5 years from now and onwards, Toyota's market share (and share price) could suffer drastically if they don't address this issue soon.

 

My guesses are along C4's --
Toyota demands 200k miles from it's battery choices. Since none of the LiIon alternatives have been proven to reach anything near that durability, I have no reason to think Toyota has an ulterior motive here.

I'm *very* interested in the GM volt -- after it has been in widespread use for 5 years. Until then it is only vaporware for use as a lobbying tool in Washington.

 

Actions are louder than words.
Prius is real. Volt is not.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(EricGo @ Jun 15 2007, 09:44 AM) [snapback]462229[/snapback]</div>

Except Altair and A123 batteries, which can easily meet those requirements and far beyond. Unfortunately both are made by American companies and are outside Toyota's comfort zone of whole or part-owned suppliers.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(MickeyA @ Jun 15 2007, 09:53 AM) [snapback]462278[/snapback]</div>

That means GM has to produce a large quantity too.

If Volt is available, yet supply is so low only a few get one, what's the point?

 

Thank you MickyA It could not be put more bluntly.

The volt will in all reality most likely never happen.
It is a classic example where a team of bright engineers came together and did something amazing that people will actually want, American ingenuity at its best...

There is only one thing that can stop that kind of ingenuity...and that is American management. (see Chrysler)

What CEO is going to make say only $100 million dollars this year in there right mind is going to risk getting say $80 million if a program flops as opposed to say $150million if the program does well. The safe rout is always better. that way you can subcommittee everything so its nice and safe. And you can show off to the world a feel good concept car that will never be a reality if they can have there way.

A congressional act is the only thing that can force American car companies eyes open.


What I dont understand is why they are fighting so hard against higher CAFE standards. And running adds to tell people that they cant get powerful farm vehicles if congress does higher standards And telling people that if forced to make these changes the cars will be unsafe...total BS.

fact is there will always be a need for powerful farm trucks and utility vehicles. Just as there is a need for hyper efficient cars.

My parents who have a farm do have a dodge dully V10, its great for hauling tones of hay and horses around as well as large amounts of dirt and other things that need to be moved. However, all of its use is for moving feed and heavy things around. thats what it is for.

I living in a suburban community drive a prius and walk. For transport thats all I need.

This is the point to the CAFE (corporate average fuel economy) It sets an average use so people who do need a power house of a vehicles can have one. Those who do not dont have too.

I cant see any problems from doing hybrid trucks and cars and or making things more efficient. There are most likely always going to be 15mpg farm trucks and someday I hope plug ins that average 150mpg or more. But an average is just that, an average. GM seems to think that everyone is going to be forced into sub compacts. Not the case, people are going to do what makes sense for them. If the do The Volt and plug ins with there regular SUV lines they are just expanding the average while still making money.


Do they not see that on average the 150mpg car going the same distance as the 15mpg car still averages out to over 80mpg?

Do they not Understand that for every one car they sell that averages 150mpg they can still sell 5 15mpg SUVs and still get the 2022 standards average of 36mpg average???

Considering most cars and trucks out there do better than the 15mpg this is not an unrealistic goal set by congress.

what happens when pure EV's are put into the mix? what happens when most SUVs get plug in or can get 30mpg as a hybrid standard. The average goes up!

Despite this one can still manufacture cars for those with insecurities and small pee pee's or a thirst for power and maintain the average just fine.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(clett @ Jun 15 2007, 11:50 AM) [snapback]462344[/snapback]</div>

These claims are unproven in actual applications.. Theoretical calculations and accelerated aging models in controlled lab conditions can be extremely misleading, and most importantly, they are absolutely not representative of a real, production grade battery.. Toyota on the other hand has actual cars and NiMH batteries in the field that have gone way over 200,000 miles and are fast approaching a decade of service life, and in extreme temperatures ranges too..

Even if these new batteries do prove out, and go into mass production, as a first generation product, you can bet that they will be extremely expensive and low volume, which means that vehicles based on these batteries will be 1) extremely expensive (ie, Lexus price range vs. Corolla/Camry price range) and 2) may have many reliability problems.. Of course, GM may go ahead with them and heavily subsidize the Volt to make it affordable, and boost sales.. Unfortunately, this is the same as their current shortsighted tactic of lowering their prices and giving away rebates to boost their sales numbers (ie, their sales figures are improving, while they are still losing money hand over fist..).. It would be ironic if GM finally did something right with the production of the Volt, but that very same thing would also spell the end of the company..

 

A news agency has reported that the battery developer SAFT and its hybrid powertrain partner Johnson Controls have won a contract – the world’s first – to produce lithium ion batteries for a series production car, from next year.

http://www.autoindustry.co.uk/news/25-06-07_6

It seems that a lithium-ion powered hybrid may come out next year after all, just not from Toyota.