I continually hear about weather catastrophes being caused by global warming including and especially from the esteemed Al Gore. If that is so what happened in 2006? Did global warming take a year off of causing catastrophes? Were the catastrophes just in unpopulated areas? Is Al gore using fear to try and make policy decisions? What could be more methodical in evaluating weather disasters than insurance payouts? Fair weather brings strong profit for Lloyds of London http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/03/29/...tain-Lloyds.php
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(malorn @ Mar 29 2007, 03:43 PM) [snapback]414428[/snapback]</div> Nice loaded questions, and nice citation of a short article about a single insurance company in London to back your loaded questions. The lack of hurricane activity in the atlantic was due to a strong El Nino that cut off shear forces, therefore hurricanes were practically crippled from forming. The Pacific had a someone more active than normal hurricane season. Now that El Nino has ended, we will see what kind of hurricane season this year will be. Otherwise, 2006 was very active in wildfires, floods, and droughts - all things that increase with a warming climate.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(MarkMN @ Mar 29 2007, 03:51 PM) [snapback]414431[/snapback]</div> Do you have any statistics on the strong year for wildfires, floods and droughts?
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(malorn @ Mar 29 2007, 05:01 PM) [snapback]414445[/snapback]</div> Scientists Say U.S. Needs to Plan for Climate-Induced Summer Droughts http://oceanandair.coas.oregonstate.edu/in...&pageID=140 Most western rivers and streams are more dependent on snowmelt for sustained flows than regular rainfall – and declining snow packs have already become an issue throughout much of the West, Coakley pointed out. “We’re already seeing snow packs dwindle and spring runoffs coming earlier and earlier,†Coakley said. “The dry summers that we’ve experienced recently may pale in comparison to what could happen in the near future. There is a kind of domino effect as temperatures warm. Precipitation that would have fallen as snow will come as rain and run off more quickly. Spring runoffs begin earlier. Summers lengthen and evaporation increases.†2006 European floods http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_European_floods From February to April 2006 many rivers across Europe, especially the Elbe and Danube, swelled due to heavy rain and melting snow and rose to record levels. These are the longest rivers in Central Europe. US Wildfire Stats http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/resear...006/fire06.html
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(MegansPrius @ Mar 29 2007, 04:13 PM) [snapback]414463[/snapback]</div> [edit] Causes Many dikes and levees breached because of a poor construction by local and national officials and of an unusual long and hard winter in Central Europe. The snowfall lasted well into April and many areas were frozen, so frost emerged, soaking the earth full of water. I noticed this in the wikipedia reference as a cause for the flooding. I suppose the unusually long and snowy winter can be attributed to man-made global warming too. <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Godiva @ Mar 29 2007, 04:18 PM) [snapback]414465[/snapback]</div> Godiva, you say I am uninformed because I am confusing weather and climate. Did you watch Mr Gore accept his Oscar? Do you remember what the narrator referenced as Al and Company went up onstage? Are they uninformed too? Did they make an honest mistake or was it a purposeful "mistake"? Was Hurricane Katrina a result of weather or climate?
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(malorn @ Mar 29 2007, 04:01 PM) [snapback]414445[/snapback]</div> Hmm, I don't know how many statistics you deserve with the kind of loaded post you started out this thread with combined with the shallow news you linked it with. <_< Also, in terms of global warming, using short term yearly data is not acceptable to make climatical judgments (and I don't want to hear how Gore shouldn't have used Katrina in his slideshow - that horse has already been beaten to death). For wildfires, here is a link with some information about US wildfire activity. http://www.nifc.gov/stats/summaries/summary_2006.html "The 2006 wildland fire season set new records in both the number of reported fires as well as acres burned. A total of 96,385 fires and 9,873,429 acres burned were reported. This season was 125 percent above the 10-year average. The Southern Geographic Area reported 48,632 fires and 2,632,358 acres burned. This represented 50 percent of the national total of fires during 2006. Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas experienced a heavy and persistent fire season starting in early 2006 and continued through the spring." As for floods, I don't know if anyone quantifies the number/severity of floods in any meaningful way. But perhaps you remember the Northeastern US flood last year, or the floods in Europe, asia. It was an active year. Droughts are not yearly events, but long term events. Here is a link to the US drought monitor http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
Do me a favor and go to this site when you have some time and start looking at rural stations or with populations under 100,000(no heat island effect) with a body of data going back to at least 1900 and then tell me what you see in the surface temperatures. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/station_data/
One thing to consider is that energy once expended, like in a storm, must be replenished. Storms release almost unfathomable amounts of energy. The lost heat in the oceans must then be replenished to a level where hurricanes are able to form (82deg if I remember correctly). Now, since oceans absorb heat all summer long and do not reach their peak temps until after summer peak highs have gone. IE. it takes a long time for the ocean to absorb enough solar energy to reach storm potential. If in one year a large amount of energy is expended it then I would think it may skip a year or so before it has the same storm potential it exhibited before (if all inputs stay the same). It is similar to how an isolated geyser works. Geothermal activity boils the water in subteranean chambers and when this liquid reaches its boiling point (higher than 212deg because of pressure) it starts to move out of the chamber due to thermal expansion but this relieves pressure and the boiling point drops so that some of the water "flashes" to steam and it explodes out of the top of the geyser. Once the pressure is release and temps drop, the water must be re-heated before the explosion can take place again.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(F8L @ Mar 29 2007, 07:38 PM) [snapback]414570[/snapback]</div> I go for that!
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Lywyllyn @ Mar 29 2007, 05:42 PM) [snapback]414572[/snapback]</div> That is just basic physical geography speaking so I may be missing many other inputs/outputs and theories so please take it with a grain of salt. It's just my brain thinking out loud. What we need is a hotline for climatology. IE: Caller: So umm, this guy my Prius forum said (insert skepticism here). Is this true? If not how to I refute his arguement? Climatologist: You start the post by calling him a neocon bastard who only cares about oil and the economy. Then you explain AGW like this (insert all kinds of scientific explainations that no one on the forum will understand) Ohh and put this graph in there so it makes it official. Oops, my bad. Only republicans start threads with ad hominem attacks. LOL
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(MegansPrius @ Mar 29 2007, 02:13 PM) [snapback]414463[/snapback]</div> As opposed to "non-climate induced droughts"? That seems a little silly to me - I guess when I think drought I think climate though I guess there is the usage factor. BTW, much of the recently observed changes in Pacific & Polar weather patterns may in fact be driven significantly by Asian air pollution which interestingly may increase Pacific Storm intensity, so we will have to see how that feeds into the climate model drought predictions see here.
