http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2819.htm US winter was just slightly warmer than average. Global winter was warmest on record ...Warmest land temperatures. ...Second warmest ocean temperatures. The newspaper interviews on this are a hoot. My reading is that the NOAA personnel are carefully following the recent Bush Administration diktat regarding global warming. So, NOAA personnel carefully say that they cannot attribute this particular event to anthopogenic global warming. Then they carefully refer to the recent published major studies showing others have concluded that anthropegenic GHG releases are causing global warming.
As someone who has been nearly completely convinced that humans are causing global warming (let's call it, "beyond a reasonable doubt"), I hate reports that seek to tie one warm winter (or even one warm WEEK during the winter, as sometimes happens) to global warming. One expects yearly temperature fluctuations whether or not global warming is occurring. Remember: global warming is a relatively gradual process, and long-term averages are the relevant quantity. Now, some people may say that we shouldn't bother correcting the public news because such news gets them excited about global warming and motivated to do something. Aside from "scientific honesty" concerns, what then happens when we have a cold winter (or a cold week)? People say, "Oh! It's been cold! Global warming is a crock!" This can be dangerous, since it's possible (or likely, if you believe in global warming) that such a cold winter is just in the normal scatter of the temperature range. As I sit and write this message, a snow storm is happening outside my window. Therefore, I conclude that all of us owning Prii must have reversed global warming.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Betelgeuse @ Mar 16 2007, 10:41 AM) [snapback]406735[/snapback]</div> Glad I could help.
Betelgeuse is right: there's a lot of conflating weather with climate in the popular media concerning GW. While it's disingenuous to blame any given specific weather event on Global Warming (e.g., Katrina, this year's snow storms) it is still valuable to use these events to illustrate the *expected* long-term effects of climate change, particularly as the theory predicts both more frequent ocean storms (2006 had no hurricanes but a higher than average number of named storms!) and heavier snowfalls (particularly lake effect snow as water and air temps stay higher). Since weather is a chaotic system with many inputs (including El Nino/Nina) it's not accurate to "blame" global warming for any of it, but it is accurate to state that "this is the sort of thing we expect to see with a warming climate" which very different than "a warming climate did this." A lot of that subtlety gets glossed over in the popular media.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Betelgeuse @ Mar 16 2007, 09:41 AM) [snapback]406735[/snapback]</div> Will whoever took my global warming please return it so I don't have to chip ice off the car and driveway tomorrow morning. Thank you.
