SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jan 26, 2020.

  1. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    9,381
    3,636
    0
    Location:
    Kunming Yunnan China
    Vehicle:
    2001 Prius
    All vaccines work, though not equally. All COVID vaccines work, though not equally. All (future-approved) H5N1 HPAI vaccines will work, though not equally.

    That's the rational side. On the other side, there are say-it-again-and-hope-people-believe-you vaccine failures. There is go-no-mask to declare personal freedom. There were nostrums touted against COVID, and I have no doubt that this will happen again if H5N1 HPAI takes better aim at the human enterprise.

    There is nothing more important than extending the human enterprise. I personally doubt that irrationals could sink it, but I wish I could feel more certain.
     
  2. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2005
    20,612
    8,517
    54
    Location:
    Montana & Nashville, TN
    Vehicle:
    2018 Chevy Volt
    Model:
    Premium
    Was just reading up how a boatload of money that USAID gave .... ton of cash to the Wuhan lab for bats & gain of function. LOL ... it just keeps getting better & better. That's no aspersion China ....
    No wonder the opposition is freaking out claiming Constitution violations.
    We used to call that the shotgun approach
     
  3. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2005
    27,984
    15,834
    0
    Location:
    Huntsville AL
    Vehicle:
    2018 Tesla Model 3
    Model:
    Prime Plus
    Countries where health care is a government requirement have a vested interest in a healthy population. IMHO, the abysmal air pollution in Chinese cities was a major contribution to the Chinese successful EV efforts. So the USA may soon 'RFJ Jr' behind but the earth is larger than the USA which has no monopoly on clever people. Now we are making the bright ones not want to come to the USA.

    Bob Wilson
     
  4. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

    Joined:
    May 11, 2005
    111,122
    50,580
    0
    Location:
    boston
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    I think Moderna, Pfizer and etc will continue to work on vaccines regardless of government cutbacks
     
  5. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2005
    27,984
    15,834
    0
    Location:
    Huntsville AL
    Vehicle:
    2018 Tesla Model 3
    Model:
    Prime Plus
    Bigger worldwide market. I can always flip over the border .

    Bob Wilson
     
  6. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

    Joined:
    Mar 30, 2008
    25,641
    16,752
    0
    Location:
    Indiana, USA
    Vehicle:
    2010 Prius
    Model:
    IV
    And, lest it be forgotten, the same is true of naturally-acquired immunity: it does work, though not equally. I just got over my second COVID in < 60 days. Because I had just had it so recently before, I opted to decline Paxlovid and just let my immune system deal with it, and had only 3 days of symptoms, so, yay immunity!

    Still, I had 3 days of symptoms. For "immunity" to work (whether natural or vaccine-mediated) doesn't mean you don't get infected. The immune system is always a defense player. It's not a deflector shield to keep viruses from landing on you. Its work starts when that's already happened. If all goes well, it might shut down their replication before you even feel bad (so you won't even know how many times it may have done that for you), but it won't always.

    If the universe has a statistics department, there's sure to come a time when they update the estimate of L in the Drake equation with the final value for us. Then they'll know (but we won't) whether we came in above or below the median.

    On the bright side, presumably whoever else is included in the stats will also have contended with WMDs, greenhouse effects, complex ecologies, and populist demagogues, so there's good reason to hope we'll be graded on a curve.
     
    tochatihu likes this.
  7. rjparker

    rjparker Tu Humilde Sirviente

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2008
    9,104
    5,516
    7
    Location:
    Texas Hill Country
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius v wagon
    Model:
    Three
    Paxlovid normally will clear symptoms in a day and you will often test negative soon after.

    It is a powerful 3 pill cocktail and runs about $1700 without good insurance. Still it reduces fast downward spirals for people with complications and helps keep other people near you virus free.
     
  8. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    9,381
    3,636
    0
    Location:
    Kunming Yunnan China
    Vehicle:
    2001 Prius
    Thanks for keeping naturally acquired immune function on the list.

    "presumably whoever else is included in the stats will also have contended with ..." I'll extend this list of potential civilization killers to include single large volcanic kablooeys (Toba!) and wide-ranging flood basalts, Hard to imagine a tectonic planet not springing an occasional leak. One could imagine solar systems without large rubble belts, where big asteroid hits are infrequent during civilization timelines. One might not imagine solar systems without large outer comet belts (like Kuiper and Oort). Ice way out yonder simply seems likely. So comets of important size may visit every civilization.

    It is probably not all a matter of self-inflicted wounds. Whether it usually is we must leave to those little green statisticians you mention.

    Those who know more about ice ages than I suggest that boosting atmospheric CO2 has at least postponed our next one. So yeah, do some greenhousing, but let's not go nuts.
     
  9. rjparker

    rjparker Tu Humilde Sirviente

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2008
    9,104
    5,516
    7
    Location:
    Texas Hill Country
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius v wagon
    Model:
    Three
    Musk believes it is hopeless and is betting Mars is the answer.
     
    bisco likes this.
  10. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    9,381
    3,636
    0
    Location:
    Kunming Yunnan China
    Vehicle:
    2001 Prius
    Paxlovid and other replication inhibitors against COVID. I have wondered whether they would work against the newly frisky influenza viruses.

    COVID is a positive-sense RNA virus, its RNA functions like mRNA so can be directly translated in infected host cell.

    Influenza is a negative-sense RNA virus, it must be transcribed to positive-sense in infected host cell before translation (to proteins).

    Having said all that I still don't know of Paxlovid etc. can shut down influenza. But at least I know how to ask the question.
     
    #6950 tochatihu, Feb 10, 2025
    Last edited: Feb 10, 2025
  11. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

    Joined:
    Mar 30, 2008
    25,641
    16,752
    0
    Location:
    Indiana, USA
    Vehicle:
    2010 Prius
    Model:
    IV
    I've enjoyed Paxlovid twice. Both times, the immediate hit on the symptoms from just the first dose has been a joy to behold.

    The first time was back when it was covered on my insurance for nothing, so it was an easy decision. The second time was just in December, and I have yet to receive the insurance EoB that will tell me what that purchase actually cost me.

    Both times I've used it, the ten-dose regimen has seemed to be pretty optimally chosen—in my experience, each dose knocks the symptoms down with a big magic sledgehammer, then they rebound some over the next 12 hours, then the next dose does the magic hammer again, and they rebound less each time, but even after the ninth dose they can rebound enough that as I'm taking the tenth I'm thinking "will this be enough?" but it ends up working just about right.

    But this time, new year, new insurer, new deductible, I knew it would cost me $600+, and I thought "not even two months from the last time, my immune system's probably got this", and it turned out ok. Which isn't to say that by day three I wasn't thinking "to save $600 I'm going through this?".
     
  12. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    9,381
    3,636
    0
    Location:
    Kunming Yunnan China
    Vehicle:
    2001 Prius
    "Musk believes it is hopeless and is betting Mars is the answer." I would have said he perceives much value in arranging a backup in case Earth stubs a toe.

    For me the moon is a more sensible backup because it takes much less rocket fuels to set that up. We might see methane as no big problem because Earth has so much. Liquid oxygen is more of a problem. We make that here by energetically liquefying the atmosphere. Not obviously a limiting factor. Making LOx on Moon or Mars means finding and collecting a lot of water from rocks and then LOxing at very large scale. Moon and Mars both have water, but the scaling up is much less for Moon colony.

    It is our hypermiling alternative.
     
  13. jdenenberg

    jdenenberg EE Professor

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2005
    3,897
    1,900
    1
    Location:
    Trumbull, CT
    Vehicle:
    2020 Prius
    Model:
    LE AWD-e
    Use Tamiflu to stop replication of the flu virus.

    JeffD
     
    hill and tochatihu like this.
  14. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    9,381
    3,636
    0
    Location:
    Kunming Yunnan China
    Vehicle:
    2001 Prius
    Well that sounds simple enough :) It has a generic version. It blocks action of influenza neuramidase protein

    https://go.drugbank.com/drugs/DB00198

    But it is not a viral transcription inhibitor, so I still don't know if Paxlovid can counter influenza at its point of attack.
     
  15. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

    Joined:
    Mar 30, 2008
    25,641
    16,752
    0
    Location:
    Indiana, USA
    Vehicle:
    2010 Prius
    Model:
    IV
    These seem to be the current influenza antivirals. I've never tried them (or looked up their cost under my insurance):

    Treating Flu with Antiviral Drugs | Influenza (Flu) | CDC

    One perk you get with any Paxlovid purchase is a many-times-folded leaflet inside the box that explains a lot about how it works. It's two drugs, nirmatrelvir, which gunks up COVID's main protease so it can't do it's job, and ritonavir, which doesn't do squat to COVID, but was an existing treatment for HIV that happens to inhibit the body's CYP3A metabolic pathway and is included for that reason, because CYP3A would otherwise metabolize the nirmatrelvir before it had a chance do its job.

    Because lots of other drugs also get metabolized by CYP3A, and are dosed accordingly, the inhibition of CYP3A by Paxlovid can turn other such drugs into effective overdoses, and there are lots of drug interactions to avoid. A family member recently had COVID and could not be given Paxlovid because of other drugs it would have interacted with. In addition to being a "strong inhibitor" of CYP3A, it is also an "inhibitor" of CYP2D6, P-gp, and OATP1B1. The list of drug interactions is long.

    The last and longest stretch of section 12.4 is how they studied the possibility of Paxlovid treatment selecting for COVID main protease changes that increase resistance to nirmatrelvir. They saw it in low single-digit percentages, so it can happen. Just as with antibiotics, it is not good to stop a Paxlovid treatment early because you feel better; you could end up spreading COVID that resists it.
     
    tochatihu likes this.
  16. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    9,381
    3,636
    0
    Location:
    Kunming Yunnan China
    Vehicle:
    2001 Prius
    (all?) other readers can see the just-above link to web.archive.org. but es blockeado en mi pais de residencia.

    Not your problem I assure you. I had thought Paxlovid was a viral transcription inhibitor but your quotes from patient product insert do not seem to support that idea. Again, not your problem.
     
  17. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    9,381
    3,636
    0
    Location:
    Kunming Yunnan China
    Vehicle:
    2001 Prius
  18. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

    Joined:
    Mar 30, 2008
    25,641
    16,752
    0
    Location:
    Indiana, USA
    Vehicle:
    2010 Prius
    Model:
    IV
    web.archive.org URLs are straightforward: /web/timestamp/original URL archived.

    You could try deleting through the timestamp and slash, and see if the original URL is blocked for you. It will be a current page on the cdc.gov website, which since 2 February has been "being modified to comply" with new executive orders, but you may hope that page's content won't have been substantively affected.

    According to the leaflet, the effect of gunking up the main protease where nirmatrelvir does is to render it "incapable of processing the viral polyproteins pp1a and pp1ab, preventing viral replication."
     
  19. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2005
    20,612
    8,517
    54
    Location:
    Montana & Nashville, TN
    Vehicle:
    2018 Chevy Volt
    Model:
    Premium
    Martian temperatures are like coastal antarctica (well below freezing most of the time).
    Seems like it would be cheaper & easier to set up shop right there if someone needs to populate a region that no one really wants to live in.
    .
     
    #6959 hill, Feb 10, 2025
    Last edited: Feb 10, 2025
    3PriusMike likes this.
  20. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    9,381
    3,636
    0
    Location:
    Kunming Yunnan China
    Vehicle:
    2001 Prius
    We really need a separate flu discussion! But here are your words of the day:

    Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). Doomscrollers, see:

    A comprehensive review of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1: An imminent threat at doorstep - ScienceDirect

    TL;DR HPAI can kill good. Other word of the day:

    Low pathogenic avian influenza viruses (LPAI), see:

    Understanding Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Birds &#x2d; BiologyInsights
    Avian influenza | EFSA

    I very much want to understand when, why and how Influenza viruses move from HPAI <-> LPAI but I do not. 1918 global influenza pandemic blasted as an H1N1 HPAI, but later self-downgraded to LPAI.

    H5N1 is now depleting the egg producing chicken industry, and increasing prices. That my dears should be low among your concerns.

    The influenza gang excels at gene swapping and has hosting birds flying everywhere. HPAI H5N1 has not yet made human to human infection. We continue unencumbered because of that.