Is 400 just the number after 399, or are we doomed, so we can stop arguing

NOAA and HADCRUT are two among several compilations. Here is the latter through 2021 Sept


I circled 1998 because it was touted at the time as warmest on record. You can still find people claiming that T has not increased since then, if you know where (in Congress ) to look. But it seems more sensible to observe 'each decade higher than previous'. In future, if that stops being the case, it will indeed be newsworthy.

 

Look in the rearview mirror.

Looking at the annual cycle at Mauna Loa, the highest month is May, the lowest is September or October, so we are near the seasonal low right now.

This year, May averaged 418.95. Absent slower growth than we have seen anytime in the past two decades, May 2022 will average above 420.

The highest weekly average was the week around May 1 this year, at 419.65. Absent an absolute miracle, 420 week(s) will happen next year.

Daily averages have already broken 420: April 30 (420.29) and June 1 (420.06) this year.

The day I was born measured 318, so it has been up more than 100 points during my life.

 

Sorry, ‘old man memory.’

Son, I remember the first Soviet space missions towards Venus in the 1960s that reported the very high temperatures. The problem being heat trapping atmosphere … and the evaporation of a planet populated by attractive, sexually active Amazon women.

Bob Wilson

 

The estimated pre-industrial level was 280. That means more than 70% of the increase has occurred during my lifetime!

 

For future [CO2} we could look at new country-level COP26 commitments that left the most aggrieved parties feeling .. aggrieved. If slower future [CO2] increases happen, they will happen after 2030. Only if some large players find a turd in their punch bowl. So to speak.

It may be well to consider IPCC' RCP 4.5 future scenario (shut it down now) and RCP 8.5 (burn baby burn) as both unlikely, for different reasons. Intermediate RCP projects [CO2] ~520 ppm at 2050, with slow decreases later. I suppose that is what plants will see, and climates will (continue to) change regionally.

 

Indeed we are the generation to witness [CO2] above levels when humans invented agriculture and made earth 'our planet'. That possession could not have happened without the big energy-burn. Subsequent generations will need to make this planet a persistently good home, as alternatives are far beyond reach.

Many scientists are striving to make earth good enough for us through century 21. Future climate models offer less than one would hope in informing that work. But one must admire their efforts, or if not, offer something better.

 

we need a hole in the ozone layer to let the heat escape

 

CO₂: heat kept in

O₃: ultraviolet light kept out

 

Ozone does have absorption bands in infra red. Most ozone is in stratosphere, where it cannot do much to absorb outgoing heat. If it did, there is no efficient mechanism to transfer that heat to troposphere.

There is ozone in troposphere, but not very much. If there were enough to 'move the needle' on infra red energy balance, it would cause much larger direct biological problems.

 

Eight and a half years later, notice how much they have needed to push up the top of the scale of this chart:



2024 Year-to-Date Temperatures Versus Previous Years | June 2024 Global Climate Report | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

 

We’ve been in a “heat dome” here, seems like close to a month, daytime highs 28~31C. This is more-or-less on the coast; inland it’s crazy hot.

next week supposedly will moderate.

 

been running about 8 degrees above average many days this month

 

Year-end chart now available:



Compare the Y-axis scale to the chart posted here 9 years ago:

 

I've been called an idiot for having this opinion, but I have faith in our ability to tackle and solve problems. I happen to believe that we are actually on a fast track to balancing the carbon cycle on our planet. It may be too slow for some, but on a geologic time scale, we are lightning fast.

 

There is one latent human trait. We have a tendency to "forget" lesson learned across generations. So someone protected from polio and not seeing polio cases might decide polio vaccinations are not needed.

"The sins of the grandfathers are visited upon the grandchildren"​

Bob Wilson