Featured Who will try to save the EV tax credits?

Google says:
The United States has around 283.4 million registered vehicles and around 239 million licensed drivers:

• Registered vehicles
  In 2022, the US had 283.4 million registered vehicles, which includes passenger cars, trucks, motorcycles, buses, and other vehicles. Trucks are the most popular vehicle type, with 170,239,357 registrations in 2022.
  
  
• Licensed drivers
  In 2021, the US had around 233 million licensed drivers. The number of licensed drivers is projected to increase to over 239 million by 2024 and 242 million by 2025.

 

I still don't see what the number of registered cars has to do with Toyota prices, unless we are suggesting that we're at the point where people just cannot afford any car at all. After all, I do have a registered Prius I haven't driven over 10 miles in the past 3 and a half years because I still don't have it put all back together and still need an engine.

 

Cheap China EV's probably has US Autos re-thinking their desire to go instant 100% EV, which they thought could allow them to reduce headcount, and beat out Japan's hybrids. They are losing global market.

 

no one wants to go instant ev's. what car makers do want is consistant policy allowing them to invest in the future, whatever that may be

 

Since I sold my TSLA stock and already own an EV and PHEV, I've kinda lost interest. If others plan to buy an EV, start with a used one with battery warranty remaining. They are quite affordable and if bought from a dealer, $4,500, point of sale, tax credit if you can use it.

Bob Wilson

 

At least for the next two months. Get them while you can!

I suspect that after the EV tax credit is repealed that used EVs will probably go up in price. This might be good news to those who want to lease or buy a new EV every few years, especially ones who don't qualify for the $7,500 tax credit on new cars.

It looks like about 30% of cars sold last quarter in Mexico are Chinese EVs. After the tax rebate is repealed and 200% tariffs are placed on Mexican imports, then the options with be buy either a Tesla or move to Mexico and buy a cheap EV and live there.

 

Don't exactly know what the policy makers think is right or not, but Toyota stockholders sure seemed to send a message what THEY think is right or not - when they ousted their head honcho for foot dragging more plugins.
.

 

toyota seems more immune to the whims of the market than american corps. maybe the japanese ethic of long term thinking.
dumping toyoda was purely for show.
as great as democracy is, left and right administration changes in this country have counter influences on markets that can make it difficult to compete with authoritarian countries. but i don't see a solution.

 

It's important to know there are several factors, not just stockholders.

I don't think Stockholders are donating money for charity here. They want to make a profit. Especially for a while, people saw Tesla stocks rising considerably. So, logically, they thought that we were on the imminent switch from ICE to EV, and that other car makers needed to make the switch or they'd be left in the dust.

The reality has been far more complicated than that, and now there is a lot more skepticism around EV adoption and profits. On the one hand the adoption rate is not where people had forecast, and this has hurt profits, which hurts investors. You could say that Tesla already won the small war on EV sales in countries like the USA a long time ago, and now there is no amount of catching up that will make a company profitable for the foreseeable future selling EVs, with the exception of the Chinese.

Yes, and this only exacerbates the swinging views of the public. The world went from "Oh man! Everyone is going to start buying an EV here real soon!" to, "Well, the early adopters are done buying. Is there anyone else out there that wants an EV?" to, "Hey, let's take away any incentive to buying an EV and make sure the affordable EV's never make it to market. Anyone want an EV now?"

The only potential silver lining is that while EV's are still realatively expensive, so are gasoline cars. There seems like a pretty good chance that all automakers will keep producing cars that are more expensive with the passing of every year while Tesla will do the opposite and produce cars that are cheaper every year. Whether any make it at all and become profitable enough to take some of Tesla's EV domination is yet to be seen.

 

people will continue to buy ev's, and prices will continue to come down at least to be competitive with gassers.
a halt in the tax credit will probably provide a temporary slowdown, but nothing lasts forever.
in the scheme of things, it's not that important.

 

I'm not so sure. The economy may be stirred up so much that for many the way of life we have today may be completely changed forever. And thinking there is only one possible outcome is shortsighted.

What we do know is that cost reduction requires manufacturing scaling. But manufacturing requires sales volume. But sales require cost reduction. It's a chicken and egg situation. Yet China and Tesla apparently have chickens and eggs already.

I bet the closest chance to getting another manufacturer into EV production and sales comparable to Tesla is GM and the Chevy Bolt and other GM vehicles that will share similar EV platforms.

 

battery prices continue to drop, probably the largest expense of making an ev. the rest is just a car.
the lack of credit will hurt gm for awhile, and they are pushing to keep it.
30k is okay for a bolt, but $22,500. is what drove sales
at least state credits will remain intact

 

Cheaper EVs could be the American dream's savior. Or we may have transitioned to cheaper public transportation before personal EV's take off.

If the US's economy holds together, then eventually EVs will likely end up being closer in price or even cheaper than gasoline cars.

 

Are countries in Europe going to kill their EV incentives? More EVs sell there than in North American. They are more inclined to take steps to protect their domestic EV makers from Chinese ones, than hurt local sales.

Losing federal incentives will only slow EV adoption here. That could hurt Ford and GM, as they've focused more on building EV production in the US than elsewhere.

 

What is the % of US content in a random US-built Tesla?

Assuming materials costs is only 33% of cost, how will the tariff affect Tesla prices?

 

Why assume ⅓ content ... why not assume ⅞ ? ... is your glass ½ full or ½ empty.

Alternatively, you could just read up.

https://www.axios.com/2023/06/21/tesla-honda-volkswagen-american-made-cars

or - just presume the worst & wring hands over nonexistent issues
.

 

Quick note, Mike proposed 33% of costs are materials. He didn’t suggest 33% of the car was from the US.

Mike, we don’t know how the tariffs will be worded/targeted.
If they are targeted based on materials, Tesla should be virtually unaffected.
If they are based on location of assembly, Tesla will be completely unaffected.
If they are based on the whims of the incumbent they will change week to week.

 

Good points here. The powers to be will do what they want. If it is a circus like last time, maybe the pendulum goes back the other way. The beauty of the Constitution.

 

maybe mike is trying to decide whether he should sell his tesla stock