Tesla stock

How I wish that were true

 

But that was when they had little credible competition and competitors were not producing in volume. Is it different now?

 

Sure, nothing is ever exactly the same.
As you said, competition can build more cars now than they could in ~2018.
On the other side of the coin, rebates (hypothetically) will be pulled for all companies, not just Tesla. So the playing field will remain even.

All the other companies have discovered making BEVs isn’t as easy as they said it was going to be 10 years ago.
Fisker has gone bankrupt (twice).
Ford has discovered how much work they have to do to get their production process in order.
Toyota discovered ‘going it alone’ led to a rather poor result and is learning from it.
GM didn’t have the ‘bandwidth’ to promote both a PHEV & BEV.
Rivian found themselves with a great product, but can’t handle the financial side yet.

Some of these companies have/will fail.
Others will succeed.
The market for BEVs will continue to grow.

 

But there are a lot of other competitive EV makers. Notably ones from South Korea. And there are more PHEV models now available which serve as competitive options for folks who fear the pure EV "stories". And as the Y acquires the different controls from the 3 will that serve to drive people to competitive brands. And as the NACS standard helps other brands over time be close to equal...

Of course today's events may throw all of that semi rational thinking into chaos.

 

I've been hearing those 'what if's for a decade now. I don't see any of these as a realistic concern. Tesla has a better balance sheet than any of them. Tesla is also increasing the size of their moat dramatically over the next couple of years.
Fewer and fewer people are being fooled by the pure EV 'stories' as more and more people have a neighbor or relative that owns one.

I don't believe the new controls system of the three has slowed sales. Some will be turned off by it, others will find they like it (like me).

Ten years ago there were a lot of things that could have doomed Tesla.
Today, there isn't much that can do more than bruise them.
Heck, their energy business is enough to sustain itself, and in a few more years could eclipse their cars.

 

You invest money in hopes of long term profits. -45% profits for the quarter per your choice of news sources, -12% YTD, -19% from a year ago. Affordable 2025 model coming ... now that will boost profit margins. Autotaxi announcement in October maybe. Prediction of millions of robots and massive profit contribution.

 

Ah, Mr sky is falling is back again.
You must be the life of the party

 

Was just looking through some stuff and came across this thread. Think I'm going to need to review it to see how well it's aged ....
Still looks like my Jan 2021 move was reasonably correct, for me. No regrets at all, on that move. I was really curious about the robo-taxi, and debated with myself recently about getting back in, but just couldn't pull the trigger. Definitely not feelin' it right now. Guess I'll let it stew for a while....

 

it's hard to figure rightnow, especially with musk seemingly 'going off the rails'.
hard to know if that affects his tesla performance

 

'off the rails' . . . .
isn't that what each side says about the other ?
are either side's wackiness any better or worse than the other sides? Each side says 'yes!'



3% difference makes one side the majority - & thus gets to Label the other side as off the rails.

47% or 50% of 74 million voters seems to be a lot of 'off the rails'

Will the vote in a few days be an 'off the rails' referendum?

.

 

For politicians, yes.
For CEOs, not to this extent.

Musk's recent twitter/X posts have made me question his current decision making skills.
Ticking off your market is generally something CEOs try to avoid.

I don't really care what his opinions are. But if he shows a lack of judgement (not doing even cursory fact checking) that brings into question his decision making skills... It may be time to trim positions in TSLA.

Tesla has a bright future in energy storage, EVs, and AI. As long as Musk doesn't derail it.
Sales are growing in China and Europe, but they are soft in the USA. I suspect part of that is some people not wanting to be associated with such a CEO.

 

Down 8.78% the day after the RoboTaxi announcement. Sounds like Wall Street was not impressed. More vague promises of visions with uncertain futures.

 

duno .... just a guess - but one would think if you had the best CEO that couldn't be accused of being weird and always seemed to make virtuous public comments as well as abiding by corporate governance but the cars they sell are mediocre, no one would give a rats about what a great person they were. Conversely wouldn't the opposite be true?
Consider for example VW involvement with the Nazis as well as Bear - famous for their aspirin as well as dozens of other products. Neither seems to be hurting that much.
"Oh but that was such a long long time ago, over ½ a century"
The next thing you know, diesel gate. Not to mention
Office of Public Affairs | Bayer to Pay $40 Million to Resolve the Alleged Use of Kickbacks and False Statements Relating to Three Drugs | United States Department of Justice.
Doesn't seem to affect profits much.
.

 

Dieselgate certainly had an affect on VW profits.
And yes, people have a short memory.

However, again, it is not the words he speaks, it is the lack of 1st principles/logic that goes into them.
If his obsessions pour over into business (which I believe we have already seen early signs of) and the board of directors won't stand up to him, that doesn't bode well.

I have been an ardent supporter of Tesla from day 1. And I loved that original mission statement. The current one is excellent too.
The fact that Musk is now working against that original mission statement has me very concerned.

 

Not the entire other side. Just certain elements of it.

3% of 74 million is 2.2 million. The actual difference was over 7 million votes.

This source shows the total vote was over 157 million, not merely 74 million. One side had 46.85%, the other side 51.31%%. A spread significantly larger than 3%.

2020 United States presidential election - Wikipedia

 

my statement wasn't about sides, or purely politics. musk has shown somewhat unstable characteristics since he began making social media statements. in my eyes, he has grown more unstable as time has gone on. will it affect his capabilities at tesla et al? only time will tell, but it concerns me.
there are plenty of unstable ceo's in one way or another, but few have musks abilities and control.

 

Rails? Where are these rails you speak of?
If there were rails couldn't we see where they go to?

Mike

 

Roads? Where we're going, we don't need roads.