2024 hurricanes

On N Pacific side, Yagi caused hundreds of deaths in Vietnam and Myanmar, after relatively light touches on Philippines and China.

N Atl season is a week past midpoint, here's the score. Two tropical storms (Alberto and Chris), three hurricanes (Debby, Ernesto, Francine) and one major hurricane (Beryl). If second half is no larger, the several and similar predictions will prove to have been excessive.

 

No name 2024 brought a lot of rain to N Carolina and inland. No name because not enough wind in a coherent structure. Such are not 'counted' but they surely have effects.

So one could say there is a problem of definition. Defining, predicting and tracking tropical storms and their stronger subsets does not consider the weaker ones.

==
In the broadest sense, some of water evaporated from oceans falls on land. That transfer is intensified during various seasons at different ocean margins. At latitudes where Coriolis forces are effective, relatively compact structures (hurricanes with their several other names) focus the bad news. Those that come ashore get all the attention

What fraction of marine -> land water transfer occurs by way of named storms? I don't know if that has been assessed. What fraction of marine -> land wind energy transfer occurs by way of named storms? Same answer but here I dare to guess it is a large majority.

 

@wxman have you seen

Historic Flooding Rainfall with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight: September 15-16, 2024

My amateur reading is that it entered 'childhood' with one leg at sea and one onshore and that just does not succeed.

 

Storm not yet strong enough for name (will be Helene) approaches FL panhandle Thurs/Fri. It will probably make landfall as category 3. Storm surge, rain and heavy winds. This would be the time for prep., moving military aircraft away, and moving moored ships away.

It would be unfortunate if this one gets underestimated. "We had no way of knowing..." You know the drill.

It is likely to be moving fast when it hits. This means that east of centerline will get wind speed added and west will have less.

Y'all are not going to like this one.

 

H. Helene is getting abundant attention. Not surprising (?) that's bigger in US media than such storms of 2024 elsewhere.

With this level of attention, there may be some disappointment if coastal homes and boats do not get surged away, and > a million do not get de electrified for a chunk of time. Sorry it has come to this.

Anyway, extra points if you see a field report that does not include wind-whipped palm fronds*. We''ll find a way to pilfer 'likes' from @bisco.

*Palm fronds can avoid detachment at 160 miles/hr; 71 meters per second. This is both aerodynamically way out there, and makes good video. If you ever see a palm frond 'blown off by wind', it was dead yesterday. This freak of biomechanics never gets its due during storm coverage.

 

This one will exercise all the models, aside from its effects on the ground. the tracking map above gives no hint of rain in TN/NC Smoky mtns. A lot. Also I heard that eye circulation will persist inland as far as Atlanta, which would be amazing. Fast forward velocity being key for that.

Entire storm system is getting very large. It is already 'feeling' the rugosity of Southeastern US. Of which little is as flat as Florida.

 

I went to Flightaware to see the storm avoidance pattern. Just now there are several large helicopters going out to the Gulf. I guess evacuating offshore drill rigs.

 

3.5 million power outage

United States Power Outage Map

 

Linking event mortality to excess mortality has been done with some controversy for both COVID and large hurricanes in Puerto Rico. This is new on the subject:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07945-5