On N Pacific side, Yagi caused hundreds of deaths in Vietnam and Myanmar, after relatively light touches on Philippines and China. N Atl season is a week past midpoint, here's the score. Two tropical storms (Alberto and Chris), three hurricanes (Debby, Ernesto, Francine) and one major hurricane (Beryl). If second half is no larger, the several and similar predictions will prove to have been excessive.
No name 2024 brought a lot of rain to N Carolina and inland. No name because not enough wind in a coherent structure. Such are not 'counted' but they surely have effects. So one could say there is a problem of definition. Defining, predicting and tracking tropical storms and their stronger subsets does not consider the weaker ones. == In the broadest sense, some of water evaporated from oceans falls on land. That transfer is intensified during various seasons at different ocean margins. At latitudes where Coriolis forces are effective, relatively compact structures (hurricanes with their several other names) focus the bad news. Those that come ashore get all the attention What fraction of marine -> land water transfer occurs by way of named storms? I don't know if that has been assessed. What fraction of marine -> land wind energy transfer occurs by way of named storms? Same answer but here I dare to guess it is a large majority.
I don't think the NC event ever had significant tropical characteristics, did it? Tropical systems are characterized by having warm-core lows, which it never achieved as far as I know.
Moving from near sea level, Washington DC, to 600 ft higher, the windward side of the Appalachian Mountains has worked out well. Huntsville is in the Tennessee Valley with foot hills on both sides which tends to channel tornadoes away from my neighborhood (no guarantees!) So upslope rain provides plenty of river water even during drought conditions. Bob Wilson
@wxman have you seen Historic Flooding Rainfall with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight: September 15-16, 2024 My amateur reading is that it entered 'childhood' with one leg at sea and one onshore and that just does not succeed.
Storm not yet strong enough for name (will be Helene) approaches FL panhandle Thurs/Fri. It will probably make landfall as category 3. Storm surge, rain and heavy winds. This would be the time for prep., moving military aircraft away, and moving moored ships away. It would be unfortunate if this one gets underestimated. "We had no way of knowing..." You know the drill. It is likely to be moving fast when it hits. This means that east of centerline will get wind speed added and west will have less. Y'all are not going to like this one.
Helene is now officially a tropical storm. Model projections are in reasonable good agreement on track to landfall, but are in poor agreement with the intensity as of 12Z... Current Storm Information | Tropical Tidbits
H. Helene is getting abundant attention. Not surprising (?) that's bigger in US media than such storms of 2024 elsewhere. With this level of attention, there may be some disappointment if coastal homes and boats do not get surged away, and > a million do not get de electrified for a chunk of time. Sorry it has come to this. Anyway, extra points if you see a field report that does not include wind-whipped palm fronds*. We''ll find a way to pilfer 'likes' from @bisco. *Palm fronds can avoid detachment at 160 miles/hr; 71 meters per second. This is both aerodynamically way out there, and makes good video. If you ever see a palm frond 'blown off by wind', it was dead yesterday. This freak of biomechanics never gets its due during storm coverage.
Local weather reporters are showing models that predict substantial rain to my part of Alabama: Bob Wilson
This one will exercise all the models, aside from its effects on the ground. the tracking map above gives no hint of rain in TN/NC Smoky mtns. A lot. Also I heard that eye circulation will persist inland as far as Atlanta, which would be amazing. Fast forward velocity being key for that. Entire storm system is getting very large. It is already 'feeling' the rugosity of Southeastern US. Of which little is as flat as Florida.
I went to Flightaware to see the storm avoidance pattern. Just now there are several large helicopters going out to the Gulf. I guess evacuating offshore drill rigs.
our daughter is at a trade show in atlanta. it's already raining, the roof is leaking, with the promise of more to come. bil is in nashville, projected path.
The storm is headed over the Appalachian Mountains that will 'take the wind out of it.' It'll rain like heck on the upslope side but that just weakens it faster. Bob Wilson
The west boundary of the red states correspond with the Appalachians. Starting to center is just reaching Knoxville, ~250 mi northeast of Huntsville. Locally, we have a light drizzle which I'll soon drive out of headed to a new to me, rifle range. Bob Wilson
Flooded electric vehicles, scooters bursting into flames after Hurricane Helene | FOX 32 Chicago "Tampa Mayor Jane Castor on Friday speculated that a home in the city’s upscale Davis Islands neighborhood likely burned down because an electric vehicle inside a garage caught fire. "Water and ion batteries do not mix. They literally explode. So if that was the case of this particular fire, I saw that home from the helicopter and there’s one wall left," she said. "It’s very, very tragic. Fortunately nobody was hurt." "Lithium-ion batteries power a number of items used every day, from cell phones to laptops, along with scooters, golf carts, and electric vehicles. Fires involving these batteries and floods are nothing new, but it is an increasingly common danger as more and more drivers choose electric over gasoline. "The danger with lithium-ion batteries themselves is that there’s a lot of power in a small little package. And when that energy is released, it’s a tremendous amount of energy and a tremendous amount of heat," said Rob Herrin, public safety information chief for Hillsborough County Fire Rescue in Tampa. In 2022, Hurricane Ian caused 20 electric cars to catch fire after they flooded with salt water, creating hazards for first responders. "
Linking event mortality to excess mortality has been done with some controversy for both COVID and large hurricanes in Puerto Rico. This is new on the subject: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07945-5
