Source: https://executivedigest.sapo.pt/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Mobility-Consumer-Pulse-2024_Overview.pdf Bob Wilson
Humm...so according to this survey , 43% for no ability to charge at home in Japan implies why Toyota is pushing hard for Hybrid and FCEV and shy on pushing for PHEV and BEV
it's slowly changing. my 74 year old brother has been a gear head all his life, starting out in his teens buying and selling classic corvettes and chevelles with a friend. he'd been into mercedes roadsters more recently, doesn't believe in climate change, renewable energy, peak oil and is a fairly staunch republican. we've had many discussions about these things since i bought my first prius 20 years ago. of course he laughed at me and could never understand. last summer i told him i test drove a model 3 and bought a bolt, he didn't sy much, but suddenly this spring he tells me he leased a model y. now he's raving about the tesla experience, autopilot, and says he'll never go back to gas. it only took 20 years, so there's hope for everyone!
I don't believe in "Peak Oil" either, now that the known fossil fuel reserves exceed the atmosphere's capacity to absorb CO2 without very severe impact on human civilization, several times over. If the original Peak Oil predictions were even remotely close to reality, then Climate Change would have been limited to levels that we would now find quite reasonable. But they didn't account for the creativity and resourcefulness of fossil fuel scientists and engineers responding to the potential of harvesting a few $Trillion more in revenue.
There was also group think within the industry that BEVs would be limited to lead-acid battery levels of performance. Plus, making hydrogen elsewhere, and shipping it to Japan looks better for carbon footprint than fossil fuel power plants. The ability to charge at home isn't yes/no there. A person might be able to charge at home, but the grid and residential supply means lower power at the outlet. Level 1 charging takes twice as long than in the US, and Level 2 isn't an option at the residence for many.
WHEN, not IF Japan decides to go BEV, they will invent clever ways to increase their grid capacity and distribute charging to their country: At businesses with employee and customer parking Commuter train parking areas Streets where cars park Vacation and recreational areas Bob Wilson
Japanese have higher ratios of commuters (weather via trains, streetcar or subway) than USA ... so there's that .... Survey: Commuting. .
It's a factor for personal car ownership levels, but I don't see how it has a major impact on the energy source for those cars. If using the train during the week, a plug in taking longer to charge at home isn't as big a deal vs with a daily use car. Same for a hydrogen car with more limited stations than gasoline. With home charging available, a BEV might be more desirable for having less concerns over sitting for extended periods while plugged in.
That explains a Prius PHV with solar. Charge during the week and use it on the weekend. Rarely have to plug it in. The low 100V doesn’t help either. Do we know if they have access to higher voltage at home? I saw a public charger in Japan (urban one) and it was only a 200V station.
What I recall from the gen4 release discussion was that half the residences in Japan were 100V with maybe 6amp service. From a site for those moving there, electric service pricing is handled differently; you pay more for having having higher amp service. Having natural gas cogen units in a building for power isn't unheard of there. Honda had a true Atkinson cycle model for that.
I have a friend that was absolutely not interested in EVs. After he took a ride with me to see a band out in Pennsy, not only did he tell his wife that they're going to get an EV the next time they need a car, he now defends EVs when he talks to his naysayer friends. Sometimes all it takes is a ride.
Wondering .... perhaps Japan's rickety grid is similar to other worldwide electric infrastructure challenges ... for example switching infrastructure from 3 phase to 5 or 6 phase would mean greater efficiency Efficiency analytical of five-phase induction motors with different stator connections for fracturing pump drives - ScienceDirect. The downside is the huge cost of having to replace much of every bit of electrical equipment/infrastructure. Even the cybertruck's 48v system (vs the standard 12v) was a big deal because all Electronics of all manufacturers don't do components that way. .
The USA grid supports both 240 VAC, split phase residential, and 208 VAC three phase commercial at the pole. Without three phase, home and vehicle electronics, it doesn't make sense to modify my 50 year old home, As for Japan, they have their own requirements to work out. But near as I can tell, they also sleep at night when home or apartment EV charging makes sense. Bob Wilson
Yet clickbait media demands that the media continue negatively dramatizing every dip in sales as some kind of proof that electric cars are a fad that will soon die out ... though sales are generally continuing/heading upward. .
I'm seeing driveways with 2-3 Teslas. Now that I know what to look for, there's a lot of Lightnings out there. Mach-Es and Rivians are flourishing. Now, I'm actually seeing more and more Bolts. This all works for me.
DeNile is not just a river in Egypt. Too much demand drives prices up. Eventually, it causes business expansion that bring prices down. We are in this first valley with EV batteries. Battery technology will continue to improve (we haven't put AI on the problem.) But for now, lithium prices and other battery elements have had a price crash. Sad to say, the recent peak in demand pushed battery prices high and that really stung the 'Johnny come lately.' Every day, I pass Prius secure in the knowledge my miles are 1/3 the cost of theirs. I pass various ICE sedans and know my miles are 1/6th of theirs. I pass pickup trucks and SUVs knowing my cost per mile is 1/10th of theirs. Yet we are all happy with our rides and I have money in my pocket. China is reaping the rewards of electrification like Norway did before. Freed from the choke hold of fossil fuels, like Jonathon Livingston Seagull, some of us get by better than the flock. Bob Wilson
(nevermind plug ins) it's easily imaginable that when new EV sales surpass ½ of all new vehicle sales, conversion/use of fossil fuel to generate electricity (coupled with battery storage) will seriously be curtailed - because much much less of its use will be necessary to propel vehicles to their destinations. .
