Fuel Cell Car Depreciation

Yep.
Seen them wholesale prices near $5,000.
And even a few at $1,000 and $3,000.
Crazy price for such a beautiful car.

But without fuel infrastructure I suppose to he car isn't much good.

 

There is also the end of use date for the tanks, and the durability of the fuel cell. By 75,000 miles, the cells have lost 10% of their power, on average. Those may not be a big impact on out of lease cars, but will be driving depreciation faster than other cars.

The Clarity FCEV was lease only, and Honda is just crushing them after.

 

No such lose in power reported. Sounds like back in the day when Prius Batteries were reported to cost $5k to $6k to replace. All false rumors. Fuel Cell tanks are good for 15 years. Just like a Hybrid battery. Can be replaced when the time comes.

 

Actual measurements of fuel cell output from fleet cars does show a power loss. The average power loss was 10% after 75,000 miles. Some cars had less, some had more. From almost none to over 30%.

The cost of the tanks means the majority of the cars will be scrapped when the tanks reach their end of life date. Used ones from totaled cars will be an option for some, but there won't be any refurbished ones, as with batteries.

 

Who knows what will be available in 15 years or what will be the process for new tanks.

 

It is a legal and liability issue with the tanks. The material oxidizes and ages over time, even the steel tanks. So they might get weaker. No one wants to do the effort of recertifying old tanks, because they don't want the be liable in case something goes wrong with one. A tank rupturing while filling is a bigger deal than a battery not holding a charge.

 

if expiration graph is carried out - the car will have been scrapped 5 years ago. That's some serious disposable philosophy. But good for the manufacturers bottom line.
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Tanks are Carbon Fiber and will last much longer than the 15 years. It’s all the fuel lines that would need to be replaced.

 

Even relatively low pressure LPG tanks have to be recertified at every 10-12 years.
Now you're talking thousands LBS per sq".
Even low pressure LPG fill stations won't refill past expiration.
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CNG carbon fiber tanks are good for 25 years since date of manufacture. They are only containing around a third of the pressure a hydrogen tank sees, so experience less stress during use. Methane is also less likely to have a negative interaction with the material.

The fuel lines see something around 200psi, but may need regular replacement from hydrogen embrittlement.

 

Speaking with one from Toyota Corporate the fuel tanks will be much more affordable in the years ahead, just as Hybrid batteries have come down in price.

The used car market has seen the prices of used certified Mirai reach prices that are double what they were two years ago.

 

Warning label states the tanks, but I am sure the lines would be covered during the replacement of the tanks.

 

The warning is a regulatory safety requirement by the USDoT. It is required with all such high pressure gas fuel tanks that they only have a finite service life in terms of years. For CNG tanks it is longer than hydrogen because of the pressure and chemical differences. I'm guessing fuel lines are good as long as they pass inspection.

CNG tanks of roughly the size the Mirai uses are in the $1000 to $2000 range. Hydrogen tanks will be more. Don't forget there is also a hybrid sized battery, and fuel cell itself that might need replacing.

 

Pretty much.