Prius Prime VS Model 3

Model 3 is going to cost you a lot more. You are already driving ~ 35 out of your 50 miles in Prius Prime's EV mode, and Prius Prime typically gets 60–70 mpg with gasoline, which is not much more expensive than EV driving even with $6-a-gallon gasoline. Perhaps there is charging station near where you work or you can have your employer provide you with an outlet or install a charging station.

 

If the only reason you want to look at a Model 3 vs Prime bare current gas prices, stick with the Prime.

If you are considering other benefits the Model 3 has, then I would advise you to go test drive one.
As for fuel costs, it depends not only upon the cost of gas, but your cost of electricity.
It might be easiest to compare price/mile, rather than gallons.

For example, if you get 50 mpg and gas is $5/gallon, your driving cost is 10cents/mile.
If you get 3 miles per kWh and electricity costs you 15cents/kWh, that is 5 cents/mile.

The difference is 5 cents/mile. If you own the car for 100,000 miles, that is a total of $5,000.

 

35¢ a kWh in California.

 

with the tesla price increase, it would be a lifetime investment to break even

 

That's ConEd or PG&E prices. SMUD is currently $0.11 KWh off-peak; moving to$0.13 on June first. Even if we charge during peak, it's $0.3105 KWh.
The price differential between a Prime and a Tesla is significant and so is the maintenance cost. Tesla is one of the most problematic cars on the road; when you adjust for the volume of cars put out by GM, Ford, and even the old Chrysler. I know this is going to get the Tesla fanatics fired-up. Is there any third party Tesla repair facilities? While we gripe about our $1K headlamp assembly; has anyone priced a Tesla side mirror?
While people has said the the "range anxiety" will eventually go away - I just need to get from point A to point B with the least amount of hassle. I also don't want to get to a charging station, only to find out it nonfunctional. What do I do now; Uber it - hopefully I have cell coverage.

@tonypalermo; only can find data on 2020 Tesla, numbers get worst when you move to a long range or performance model.
2020 Tesla Model 3: True Cost to Own | Edmunds
2020 Toyota Prius Prime: True Cost to Own | Edmunds

 

It is still $0.096/KWh for the first 500 KWh/month, then $0.145/KWh, here in Roseville, CA (city-owned electric utility). No TOU for residential customers here (yet). I don't know why it is so cheap compared to PG&E and even to the neighboring Sacramento Municipal Utility. They all get the electricity from the same sources.

 

This is why it is so important to figure out your pricing. It can vary by region, utility and even programs within the same utility.
In my case, I bought the Model 3 for many reasons other than fuel price. However, it doesn't hurt that the effective fuel cost for me is $0.005/mile, where gas in a Prius would be $0.08/mile.

 

I rounded up our winter rates; but our rates are within $0.005. I quoted this coming summers peak rate for the high rate above. SMUD is a larger utility provider and covers a much larger service area = higher maintenance cost, and we're probably still pay for the Rancho Seco fiasco. Nothing wrong with it, the public was simply afraid of it operating in our backyard - after Three mile island & Chernobyl.
PG&E rates are high because of large service area and wild fire lawsuits. It's just weird that everyone wants to sue PG&E. If your a PG&E customer - you're basically suing yourself. Leaving the only winners here, PG&E management and lawyers - but this is for another discussion.

 

Why does it have to be a Tesla M3?
The Chevy Bolt is back in production and is priced for the low to mid $30s.

I bought an Ioniq5 for $49k which still has the full $7500 tax credit making it thousands cheaper than a M3. Our 2017 PP will be staying in the garage for our 2nd car for at least 5 more years.

As others have mentioned, you will never make up the cost of a new car in gas savings.

 

Also look at a 22 Leaf SV with Tech package for about $31.5k. It still qualifies for the $7500 tax credit and around $2k in CA incentives.

It's a better competitor to the Prius Prime than a Tesla Model 3. Around $30k hatchback that still qualifies for the federal tax credit. I switched to the Leaf because of my long commute. I don't have to use public charging, car is at 100% when I leave in the morning.

Pros compared to Prius Prime:
- faster
- more cargo room
- better adaptive cruise control and lane centering
- more features for the money (heated seats and steering wheel, 360 degree camera, parking sensors)
- no more going to gas stations
- no more oil changes
-$7500 tax credit vs $4502. Toyota will run out of tax credit before Nissan

Cons:
- Only 150 mile combined range
- Can't add range like gasoline
- No battery cooling, you'll be fine in CA, just don't expect to drive over 300 miles straight in the Summer without charging slowing you down

 

The Leaf is actually a decent runabout and you can equip it with a Tesla fast-charger option. The GM Bolt is also also a decent solution; though I don't know if there's a fast charger option. All Bolts are getting a free battery upgrade (LG battery recall); so a used one may be a good option/alternative.

One more Con to add to the list above. Resale value & battery replacement. I've got a friend with a 2012 Leaf; got a screaming deal about 4 years ago. The battery pack was down to 75 miles per charge; it's currently down to <50 mile as of a month ago - when we were talking cars. No big deal for him, since we have on-site charging stations and he works swing shifts. I can't get on one of those chargers, even if my life depended on it.....

 

I believe the Leaf and Bolt both have DC charging.

 

The 2nd Gen Leafs' (2018+) batteries were much better than the 1st Gen. Only a handful in over 100,000 has lost more than 15% of the battery's capacity. Those were either have a lot of miles, DC charged a lot, or in a hot climate. If you don't fit into any of those categories, your Leaf will be fine.

 

… particularly when the scenario is moving from a PHEV to an EV. The OP said he travels ~50 miles a day in his PP, so only half of the distance travelled will be gas savings, the rest is already electric.

Basically, anyone buying a similar size class new vehicle with fuel cost savings being your primary motivation is playing a fools game…. The only time gas savings may be economically feasible is if one were changing from a much larger vehicle like a big SUV or Truck to a modest car, but even then there is most likely another reason there too (no longer need all that space or towing, etc).

 

100% agree! Besides, PP and M3 are not in the same class of cars. The fuel efficiency of PP is excellent. For at least another 3+ mo with a full $4502 tax credit, there is no other car on the market that will come anywhere close to a PP in terms of the total cost-saving value for a new car. Buying an M3 or any other new vehicle will not save money. If you want an M3 or different BEV for other reasons, then make sure you do the math based on your local prices to do the comparison.

 

If you plan to keep your car for 15+ years, I go with a PP.

In 15 years, both cars will need to replace the battery, is a lot cheaper in the PP. Probably still works as a regular Prius if you don't want to replace battery.

With one of the best quality in the PP, this car will be barely broken in. Don't know if you can say that with any Tesla. There are stories of control arms and subframe broken with Model S already.

 

Agree. I realize the PP and M3 are two different customers (usually, lol). That is why I said size class. (I.e. 4 door, 5 passenger, 20-25ish cu ft cargo room, etc).

 

Also agree. I used to dream of a Tesla as the perfect car (and still love the tech, looks, performance, etc), but the quality and reliability bothers me. I would have no patience for that, particularly at the price.

Long term ownership is also an interesting consideration. I have no data to back this up, but I am willing to bet that Toyota probably has the longest average ownership of any auto maker, while Tesla is probably one of the shortest (given most Tesla buyers are fairly affluent and likely do not keep old cars…). Just a theory of mine though, I could be completely off base.