Are Prius Prime falling behind the curve?

No, BEV's won't be mainstream for 10 years. Hybrids and not even the car of choice for many.

 

It is a matter of priorities. Notice how Toyota has stated their BEV expectation repeatedly as a 90% capacity retention after 10 years? For mainstream consumers, focus is on affordable batteries which favor longevity. To get that, a tradeoff of range is required. Knowing that, take a look at what happened with Tesla recently. The base Model 3 switched to that other chemistry, known as LFP. That dropped range to 272 miles, falling out of the 300-400 trend many expected to become the norm.

Increasing presence of DC fast-chargers changes the equation too. Why carry around unneeded capacity when you can instead have a more durable battery capable of many more charging cycles? It is a paradigm-shift many BEV enthusiasts didn't see coming. In fact, the revelation of LFP ended up being quite a sucker-punch for some.

With regard to the PHEV market, seeing more DC fast-chargers is an enabler. We'll have to wait for Prius Prime to finally get an upgrade. But at that point, it will be easier to get landlords & employers to provide Level-2 charging. At home, the thought of plugging into an ordinary 120-volt outlet for overnight recharges will become a no-brainer... so obviously beneficial, consideration of 240-volt won't be scary or uncertain anymore.

In short, Toyota has carefully studied the market and has the patience to wait quietly position their pieces for when the game begins. Hybrid, PHEV and BEV will all serve a purpose to win.

 

how are those bolts selling? i don't even know where the curve is these days

 

The original post is really misstating the situation. He called out the Tesla and Bolt for range of 250 to 300 miles. The average user will need that mileage once in a great while. But then he attributed only 20 miles to the Prime. While that's sufficient for daily use of 90 percent of all US drivers, it also has another 600 miles of range without charging or fueling.

Since the Prius gets virtually the same efficiency as the best Tesla (about 250 watt hours per mile) the battery tech and drive train appear to be right up there with the BEV leaders.

 

First, I am NO source for predicting what will happen with battery/electric cars! FWIW - here are some observations that I have been forming. First and I know this will/may sound like heresy, but I'm not sure we will or even should become a total electric vehicle country! I think Toyota is on the right track, with battery supplementing gas. The better battery technology becomes, the higher the gas mileage gets. Drove our Prime from Seattle to Phoenix with no charges and still got 65 mpg. Using it for our primary car down here and getting well over 150 mpg with the type of driving we do. I am leaning this way for 2 reasons - 1. The supply of lithium and the disposal of old batteries. 2. The internal engine was greeted with the answer to animal poop in the big cities as they started to replace horse drawn wagons (NYC was being buried it horse/cattle poop!!) but we failed to see or know the long range effects of exhaust pollution. Probably way too simple and not taking into account the advancement of battery power, technology and disposal which is way above my knowledge level, but really hope that greater minds than I are working on it!! JMHO, so please, don't ravage me for it!!

 

How much additional range do those buses and Teslas get on gasoline or diesel? 0 more miles. Prius and RAV4 Primes get total ranges of 600 or miles, far ahead of those BEVs:



The reality is that PHEVs and All-Electrics are working different curves, so should not be directly compared. All-Electrics will eventually dominate, but PHEVs are an important transition step for many people not (yet) adequately served by the existing all-electric product offerings.

 

Lithium isn't really the challenge. It is both nickel & cobalt... which LFP chemistry eliminates. Their absence lowers cost and makes the battery easier to recycle. That puts BEV on a sustainable track.

PHEV are vital for locations lacking infrastructure. (In fact, think of the benefit from one equipped with bZ4X's solar panel.) They will adopt what we see advancing from hybrids. The new bipolar design along with some type of solid-state chemistry will make for quite a practical system where DC fast-charging is impractical.

It is easy to see a mix of technologies. Ironically, BEV enthusiasts dead-set against fuel-cells are starting to come to the realization that hydrogen has practical uses on the commercial side. Being able to store as much renewable energy as possible locally is an interesting twist when it is used to power DC fast-chargers. Think about how some claim our grid isn't capable of supporting total electric. It wouldn't have to be if we decentralize using off-grid storage via hydrogen & batteries.

 

Regardless of how many
good lord are they expensive

$9999 mid pandemic for high miles, now even higher mileage starts $16900

Wish there wasn’t the lockdown at the time a $9999 Bolt with a free battery on the way would have been the best deal

 

Your situation is about perfect for either a BEV or PHEV. The moderate driving means that you don't need any fancy charging infrastructure. A 3.5 kW source will recharge the battery pack pretty quick and a solar installation capable of providing 3.5 kW is pretty common. Even if you have a BEV with 250 mile range, with your short daily drives you can manage your battery by charging daily for only an hour or two.

 

Those are really different sorts of vehicles. With wildly different price tags.

I mean a camel and a parachute can each bring you safely to your destination, but you might benefit from different expectations on each journey.

 

Well, the Prius Prime out sold the Bolt last year. A year in which there was a well publicized fire issue with the Bolt's batteries. The cause has now been identified. The 2022 Bolt is the new redesign, now with little SUV sibling, that has a big price cut versus the old model.

Range extended EVs might become a big segment, but if the source of fuel isn't addressed, the ICE can't be carbon neutral. We can make carbon neutral gasoline; Porsche is building a plant down in Chile for it. It just can't compete against fossil gasoline on cost. Got to get the majority of car miles on electric before the price becomes acceptable.

Hydrogen might have a place as fuel, but BEVs already have a lead even on the commercial side. There is also a lot of fossil hydrogen use to be displaced by green hydrogen, which will be cheaper to do since that won't require building new distribution infrastructure.

Several companies are already working on recycling the batteries, and newer cell designs are taking recyclability into account. The nickel and cobalt are too valuable to simply throw away. Even if not usable for new batteries, the lithium can go to the other uses, like glass and ceramics. A critical mass of old packs will need to be reached before recycling becomes self supporting. Until then, Li-ion batteries are non-hazardous, so much safer to dispose off than lead-acid batteries and exhaust fumes.

LFP has been used in EV buses for years now. Even the failed Coda EV used them. Tesla uses them in the Model 3 SR for China, and started using them in that car here. If they haven't already, they'll likely soon have LFP in all the Model 3 SR's. There is several pluses to LFP in cost and safety, but they are less energy dense. They work in the Model 3 with minimal difference in range from the previous nickel-cobalt battery, because the car was designed for a bigger battery for the long range model; the LFP SR pack is the same size as the Li-ion LR one.

LFP will be used in less expensive BEVs. The shorter range will still be plenty for most people. They could even work for longer ranges with a robust fast charging network in place, which LFP can tolerate well. They simply take up too much space for long range BEVs, and the space requirements could be troublesome for PHEVs.

 

The EPA rating is 25, fwiw. Not "real world" range?

 

Well, if we are going to use "real world", you have to give equal weight to everyone's experience. My experience includes 28.7 miles per charge on the guess-o-meter for months at a time as well as an occasional 30 miles. My real world driving has included 31 miles on battery during rush hour traffic, 99% freeway. I've done that drive many times with similar results.

I don't know what my shortest range was, because I almost always recharge before the battery is exhausted or I continue driving for several hundred more miles as part of a 1000 mile round trip.

 

Ummm, just a factual check, I believe the Tesla Model 3 SR+ with Aero wheels *gained* range when it switched to the LFP battery, from 260 to 272 miles.

 

Toyota is not concerned about the EV range so much both on the PHEV and BEV. Their philosophy is to produce and sell enough cars that are affordable to many. The PP at least with the rebate and tax credit did accomplish that goal. We will see how the bZ4X is going to do without the tax credit.

 

The pack size (old chemistry) had increased, bumping range from 278 to 305 miles. Down to 272 isn't a big deal, but that is a drop nonetheless and it is no longer in the 300-400 category.

 

i would say that eve range is even more volatile than mpg's. YMMV