SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jan 26, 2020.

  1. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

    Joined:
    Mar 30, 2008
    25,092
    16,360
    0
    Location:
    Indiana, USA
    Vehicle:
    2010 Prius
    Model:
    IV
    Fair point. I wonder if there is a threshold being used for 'infection' status, some recognizable bimodality between the number of particles you'll find there if you inhaled some and your immune system strongly suppressed their replication, and the number you'll find there if they are replicating avidly.
     
  2. GreenJuice

    GreenJuice Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 3, 2008
    195
    127
    3
    Location:
    London, UK
    Vehicle:
    2016 Prius
    Model:
    N/A
  3. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

    Joined:
    May 11, 2005
    110,452
    50,202
    0
    Location:
    boston
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    idk if it is so much political as cultural. it is really difficult to compare one country to another. so many variables.
    the article sounds political though.
     
    GreenJuice likes this.
  4. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    9,223
    3,594
    0
    Location:
    Kunming Yunnan China
    Vehicle:
    2001 Prius
    @ChapmanF offered a conceptual COVID equation earlier. It reminded me of Drake equation for galactic civilizations. Which is not entirely praise :D

    However, it seems to have two main parts - how many virus you encounter/inhale, and how successfully they further manufacture in you.

    Denmark article focused on trust of medical authorities, which can affect both parts. 'Encounters' can be reduced with mask, social distance, hand sanitizing. 'Success' as defined here can be reduced with vaccination. If you buy the medical message, you do the things.

    I found one small study suggesting 94% vax in Denmark (article states 86%). About 8 US states stats are above 94%, other states are below that. 86% may not be higher than US? It seems unknowable, how much other matters of compliance differ between US and DK. But worldometers stats indicate US has more than double cases per million, and more than 4 times deaths per million.

    Latter comparison must be nuanced because US had many deaths early, when medical severe care had less tools and sometimes used them wrongly. Unknown to me whether DK hospitals ever got heavily overwhelmed (which really messes things up).

    Many months ago, I thought it would be possible to demonstrate clear links between compliance and disease rates. Still possible to some degree, but the waters have become very muddied. Part of that is political. Overall a shame, because, again, this was supposed to serve as practice for a later disease that would have no problem killing 5 or 6 millions.

    ==
    If COVID has a 'good side', it is that now now, very well targeted mRNA vaccines can be made in remarkably short and wide pipelines. Human trials (efficacy and safety) are now the rate-limiting step. Perhaps that can be improved.
     
    #4845 tochatihu, Sep 25, 2021
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2021
    GreenJuice likes this.
  5. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2009
    17,557
    10,327
    90
    Location:
    Western Washington
    Vehicle:
    Other Hybrid
    Model:
    N/A
    This does match up with numerous other items I've been seeing.

    But as an alternative to getting the vaccines, it has several downsides:
    (*) it doesn't train the body to protect itself. It is just a treatment for an early stage active disease case, not a preventative against future disease. Its benefit fades in a few weeks, much more rapidly than the protection from the fading-faster-than-we-wished vaccines;
    (*) for the public health authorities paying for it, it is vastly more expensive;
    (*) supply is more limited, so it is more likely to be unavailable when one wants or needs it;
    (*) for people concerned about 'unproven' or 'too rapidly released to market' or any of the other common reasons that people are expressing to be wary of the vaccines, there is no good reason why this treatment is of any less concern.
     
    Trollbait likes this.
  6. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    9,223
    3,594
    0
    Location:
    Kunming Yunnan China
    Vehicle:
    2001 Prius
    To amplify the previous.

    'Buying' antibodies does not train your body to make their own (as stated) but neither does it inhibit that natural thing happening. Unless recipients are immuno compromised, they will still make antibodies on their own.

    Cost differential may be large - could be 100 x more to buy antibodies vs. vaccine? 10 x more? Can anyone narrow that range?

    US now seems to have more vaccine doses than called for but much less manufactured antibody doses than called for. Not a good look.

    Manufactured antibodies were indeed tested using cells from some aborted human fetus(es), from some time ago. There are times within memory that such a thing would have lit a large fire. But now, with folks of a particular political persuasion facing hardship, no fire.
     
  7. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2009
    17,557
    10,327
    90
    Location:
    Western Washington
    Vehicle:
    Other Hybrid
    Model:
    N/A
    Over 100x cost differential is what I heard, or slightly over 2-kilobucks for the antibody dose.
     
    bwilson4web likes this.
  8. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    9,223
    3,594
    0
    Location:
    Kunming Yunnan China
    Vehicle:
    2001 Prius
    There is an old expression "A stitch in time saves nine". Well, it ain't nine, for these stitches.
     
  9. GreenJuice

    GreenJuice Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 3, 2008
    195
    127
    3
    Location:
    London, UK
    Vehicle:
    2016 Prius
    Model:
    N/A
    There is also an additional aspect of ‘opportunity cost’, which is the cost of depriving a hospital bed and other medical resources from someone requiring another type of urgent medical treatment (e.g. cancer therapy).

    For those of us with nationalised healthcare systems this is a very real metric as a backlog of this work has built up during our peak surges. For those with insurance backed healthcare, such costs are still there but more hidden from inspection. These might typically appear as a ‘higher than background’ increases in morbidity/mortality figures for non-Covid conditions.
     
    bwilson4web likes this.
  10. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

    Joined:
    Oct 28, 2010
    7,902
    6,692
    0
    Location:
    Redneck Riviera (Gulf South)
    Vehicle:
    Other Non-Hybrid
    Model:
    N/A
    The "street price" for Monoclonal antibody infusions are about $2k in the US according to the bill a family member got.
    The real-world cost is anybody's guess.
    Ask somebody like Senator Sinema.....

    They DID get a bill.
    No Gov'mint cheese in these here parts at the time.

    People are smart.
    Crowds are stupid.

    Compliance IS key, which is why forced vaccinations and a dawn-to-dawn curfew figure prominently in success stories.
    I believe we used the phrase "go ugly early" about a year and a half ago.

    Not so easy to do in the "land of the free" but it is doable with one pen and one piece of paper.

    You forgot the PITA factor.
    Pretty soon they're going to figure out HOW WE MAKE the stuff.
     
    #4851 ETC(SS), Sep 26, 2021
    Last edited: Sep 26, 2021
  11. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

    Joined:
    Mar 30, 2008
    25,092
    16,360
    0
    Location:
    Indiana, USA
    Vehicle:
    2010 Prius
    Model:
    IV
    If so, dot.gov isn't being offered much of a discount.

    https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/regeneron-lilly-get-new-covid-drug-deals-from-government-2021-09-16

     
  12. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2005
    27,740
    15,701
    0
    Location:
    Huntsville AL
    Vehicle:
    2018 Tesla Model 3
    Model:
    Prime Plus
    Interesting claims: Protein found on infected cells protects virus from immune system; remdesivir helps prevent hospitalization | Reuters

    A protein called CD47 that helps damaged cells avoid destruction by the immune system may be contributing to severe cases of COVID-19, researchers believe. Drugs in development targeting CD47 may result in improved COVID-19 therapies, they suggested in a report published in Current Issues in Molecular Biology.
    . . .
    SARS-CoV-2 infection also increases levels of another protein, SIRPalpha, that partners with CD47 to trick the immune system into ignoring the sick cells.
    . . .
    The 562 patients in the study all had conditions that increased their risk for becoming critically ill. Half received three days of treatment with remdesivir - sold under the brand name Veklury - while the rest received a placebo. Four weeks later, 5.3% of patients in the placebo group had been hospitalized or died, compared to 0.7% of those who received remdesivir.
    . . .
    The COVID-19 pandemic has reduced life expectancy in 2020 by the largest amount since World War II, with the life expectancy of American men dropping by more than two years, according to new data. In the 29 countries studied - the United States, Chile, and 27 in Europe - all but two showed reductions in life expectancy.
    . . .

    Access to full article may require a free registration.

    Bob Wilson
     
  13. privilege

    privilege Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2021
    659
    169
    0
    Location:
    Birmingham
    Vehicle:
    2011 Prius
    Model:
    Three
    you know, there are places on Earth that you can move to... that don't have all these pesky problems with rights... the govt just says "do as I say"and the people have no choice.

    it's weird, no one wants to go to those places, they all want to come here.

    head scratcher, I wonder why ?
     
  14. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

    Joined:
    Oct 28, 2010
    7,902
    6,692
    0
    Location:
    Redneck Riviera (Gulf South)
    Vehicle:
    Other Non-Hybrid
    Model:
    N/A
    I've found that most people who begin a conversation with this (or similar) thoughts really haven't BEEN many other places.

    If you're going to cherry-pick snippets of conversation and post them out of context then perhaps you should consider a career as a journalist, or perhaps as a White House spokesperson.

    What you're quoting is a comment about the relationship between compliance and outcome, and if you look at the data, there IS a clear, real-world, straight-line association with governments that go ugly early, and those with the fewest deaths per 100,000 from a deadly communicable disease.
    The best modern example of this came from a commie country in 1972, which is in NO WAY an endorsement of that form of government!

    In fact....the fatal flaw of Commie countries (intolerance of bad news) is probably what got this bug kicked off in the first place.
     
    Zythryn likes this.
  15. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2005
    27,740
    15,701
    0
    Location:
    Huntsville AL
    Vehicle:
    2018 Tesla Model 3
    Model:
    Prime Plus
    They want to catch COVID-19.

    Bob Wilson
     
  16. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2005
    27,740
    15,701
    0
    Location:
    Huntsville AL
    Vehicle:
    2018 Tesla Model 3
    Model:
    Prime Plus
    So booster shots were approved for those over 65 and I am 71. I went to the pharmacy expecting to find a line of smart Alabamians. No line.

    Alabama has one of the lowest vaccination rates and fewest available ICU beds. No waiting and done. Better to be the brightest fish in the dummy pool. Everyone else is my meat.

    Bob Wilson
     
  17. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

    Joined:
    May 11, 2005
    110,452
    50,202
    0
    Location:
    boston
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    a lot of clamoring here. just like the first shot, more takers than availability. it will calm down after the initial surge.
    nationwide, it looks like cases are running about half of a few weeks ago.
     
  18. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    9,223
    3,594
    0
    Location:
    Kunming Yunnan China
    Vehicle:
    2001 Prius
    "Everyone else is my meat." Referring to Cloud Atlas or cannibalism in general?
     
  19. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2005
    27,740
    15,701
    0
    Location:
    Huntsville AL
    Vehicle:
    2018 Tesla Model 3
    Model:
    Prime Plus
    Got mine:
    upload_2021-9-28_22-11-25.png
    Booster shot.

    Bob Wilson
     
    Zythryn likes this.