Bob goes to a casino

Discussion in 'Fred's House of Pancakes' started by bwilson4web, Jul 7, 2021.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I will soon share this posting with friends and family on Facebook. Technical, it entails significant financial and behavioral risks:
    upload_2021-7-6_23-15-32.png
    • $360 - amount drawn from ATM account without 'fees'
    • $320 - money put on craps (i.e., dice table)
    • $305 - excess money brought back and deposited
    BASIC STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

    The casino rules provide four, basic bets that have ~1.41% house advantage: PASS LINE; DON'T PASS BAR 12; COME, and; DON'T COME BAR 12. If you only put bets on these four areas, you will be taxed ~1.41% with each throw of the dice. This is how the casino makes money for the staff, lights, free beverages, and operating expenses. Similar house advantages exist with every casino 'game' but few (actually most) are higher but the craps, house advantage can be diluted.

    Craps (i.e., dice) allows addition of an ODDs bet that is paid at true value, no house advantage. For example, once a -1.41% house advantage bet exists, you can add an equal amount (often variable) ODDs bet to dilute the house advantage:

    -1.41% bet + one true odds side bet = (-1.41% + 0.0%) / 2 = -0.705% :: cut house advantage in half
    -1.41% bet + two true odds side bet = (-1.41% + 0.0% + 0.0%) / 3 = -0.4% :: house advantage 1/3d​

    The craps player has the ability to dilute the house advantage by adding an ODDs bet to the four basic bets: PASS LINE; DON'T PASS BAR 12; COME, and; DON'T COME BAR 12. There are house rules that limit how much the player can dilute this house advantage but the craps table crew will share them if you ask, "How much odds can I put on that bet?"

    One last tip, the basic bet and subsequent ODDs bets need to be a factor of "6". When paying off the ODDs bet, there are three fixed ratios and they all incorporate a factor of "6." So if the table minimum is say $15, bet $18 for the initial bet and add ODDs of "n" times that bet. This avoids the house 'rounding down' your payoff, a small casino 'tax.'

    TABLE STRATEGY

    There can be multiple, goals at the craps table:
    • Get it over with NOW
    • Stretch out the longest time to get more free beverages
    • Enjoy yourself
    To shorten the time, ask the table what the maximum ODDs bet is allowed. Divide your remaining funds by that number and place the largest factorial of "6" on one of the four bets. If a point is established, add ODDs bet to the maximum, a factor of "6" and watch the play. This is a Kamakazi bet as it will either work or fail ... time to go to bed.

    For longest table time, you want to make enough bets to let normal variability extend the play. Take the table minimum and round it up to the next factor of "6". Multiply that number by 10-20 for your 'kitty' approaching the table. This is how much money you should have approaching the table so you can survive the inevitable variability (i.e., luck!) at the table. Some bets will lose so you want to have enough to continue playing.

    Enjoy yourself means your craps table behavior should be positive to the table crew. So say "thank you" when getting a win. At the end, if you have some small $1 chips, put them on the "2" and "12" and announce, "A table bet." If it wins, GOOD. If not, they will appreciate your consideration for their underpaid, over worked, efforts.

    CONCLUSION

    It is called 'gambling', not 'winning.' You can make it a fairer game but ultimately, the casino will capture their -1.41% on the initial bet. For any casino visit, you may or may not be lucky. But it is entertainment, not a job.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #1 bwilson4web, Jul 7, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 7, 2021
  2. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I see many read my post but no feedback:
    • Too technical, I did not understand
    • Too simplified, I want details
    • I like pie
    Skinner identified random, variable feedback as leading to the most obsessive stimulus-response behavior bordering on addictive. Gambling meets that criteria. So avoidance is a safe and sane response to the temptation of gambling.

    There are other gambling games like blackjack, poker, and slots. Each has their advocates but I prefer the mathematically pure craps. In most casinos, the craps tables attract the loudest, most animated players. My late wife would come over to enjoy the show. Her game of choice was video poker.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #2 bwilson4web, Jul 7, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 7, 2021
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  3. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    when i was working, there was usually a once a year vegas convention. i never enjoyed gambling, but one take away is that most people are there for a set time. i preferred to leave if ahead, but where to go?
    my mom enjoyed vegas so much she made my dad buy a condo for winters
     
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  4. Raytheeagle

    Raytheeagle Senior Member

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    I stay by the penny slots for the free drinks ;).

    But these days the penny slots are more than some other slots given the number of rows being played:cool:.

    The wife does craps though :).

    She and her family are the animated players when at the table(y).
     
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  5. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i like bobs method, too complicated for me, but as close to legal card counting as you can get probably
     
  6. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    Bob goes to a casino

    Too bad.
    I always thought Bob was smarter than that. ;)

    It's not as stupid as playing the lottery, which, is essentially a tax on morons......BUT...

    Bob's a big boy and he clearly knows the odds.

    We lost an employee to the poker tables a few years back (offshore gaming.)
    Seems Big Bell was interfering with his addiction, and for SOME PEOPLE it's a thing.

    If the human animal were good at long-term risk assessment then big tobacco would be little, and credit card companies would not mostly be based in a county-sized state where they can pay for friendly legislation.

    I do not have a particular problem with casinos.
    They have cheap grub, it's decent entertainment if you can put up with the noise and smoke (in some) AND they've allowed my beloved home state of Indiana to lower taxes for car plates.

    Also....I know the odds.
    The last time I placed a bet in one, the New York skyline looked a little different.....

    Win-Win!
     
    #6 ETC(SS), Jul 7, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 7, 2021
  7. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Hardway bomb.
     
  8. mmmodem

    mmmodem Senior Taste Tester

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    Just got back from Vegas over the holiday weekend. This is the first time the house didn't get any money from us. I didn't understand what you wrote, Bob as we do not play craps. Usually wifey or I donate $40-$100 to the slot machines. We just had no motivation but this is the first time I've come since they started charging for parking. I'm sure sure the house still won. :LOL:
     
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  9. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I'll try to simplify:
    • Bets and odds should be a factor of 6 to avoid rounding errors.
    • The house takes 1.41% from the initial bets.
    • Adding odds to the initial bets reduces the house advantage closer to a fair game.
    The math is the same but for fun, my initial bets are "DONT" followed by one "COME". Regardless, practice with a craps video game before going to the casino.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  10. mmmodem

    mmmodem Senior Taste Tester

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    Personally, I don't consider gambling a game of chance. It's giving money away. My fantastically good luck is God's gift to me as I will never be addicted to gambling as I never experience winning. I always lose ... and quickly. I just don't play beyond getting free drinks at the penny slots.

    A long time ago, a friend taught me how to play Pai Gow in our hotel room because he didn't want to go to the tables alone. I didn't calculate the odds but the majority of games ends in a push. In other words, Pai gow is an easy game to play where your money lasts a long time because no one wins. Someone more knowledgeable about gambling will have to vouch for me... (or tell me how truly wrong I am). We figured if we got 2 drinks and entertainment, we would have gotten our money's worth. Thus, we each put down $40 and I lost it all in 5 minutes. The minimum bet was $5 and I lasted about 6 or so hands. I don't remember if I even got a drink. He lasted 45 minutes and got his 2 drinks. I didn't make any moves on my own, every call made was what he would've done.

    I wonder how long I will last on a craps table.
     
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  11. jdenenberg

    jdenenberg EE Professor

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    t's not quite the same, but my spouse and I were at a "Las Vegas night" event. After reviewing the "Games", we took our two bags of chips, put them in my pocket and danced to the music. At the end of the evening we were the second highest winner which got me a new Router (the woodworking kind, not the Internet kind).

    JeffD
     
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  12. Raytheeagle

    Raytheeagle Senior Member

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    We got married in a casino in Las Vegas :).

    That gamble has paid off :love:.

    Definitely a different type of gambling (y).