Tesla Shuts Down - Oh No Oh No

I’m just going off of what wiki info states about the vehicle program. All things subject to change of course. But if the the credit was $5000 per year and the vehicle lease payment was $499 mo. $6000 yr. Toyota practically gave the cars away to meet minimum quota.

 

Wish the would Give me a new Prius

 

It's 15 years from date of manufacturer; the tank's, not the car's. The tank is now a wear and tear item, and that will have a bearing on the used price.

Fuel cells working as they should means a gradual loss to output. In order to be accepted by the public, FCEVs need to be as durable as an ICE car. The goal for meeting that is an output loss of under 10% after 5000hrs of operation, which is roughly 150k miles in a car. Seven years ago, they were only averaging 1000hrs before hitting that limit. Improvements mean they might get to 90k miles before seeing a 10% loss. For commercial trucks, they'll need one good for a million miles.

https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/02/f8/fctt_roadmap_june2013.pdf

It was a fuel card that was good for three years or $15,000 of hydrogen. I don't think it was possible to spend the full $15k while staying in the lease terms. At $17/kg, $5000 would cover around 19k miles in a Mirai.

You can, or could, get the hydrogen card with a CPO Mirai, and some of those are advertised under $15k.

Toyota is giving the cars away. A new one has a $32k discount in subvention cash.
2020 Toyota Mirai Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle | The Future of Everyday

 

who was it - PT Barnum? that famously said there is a Mirai purchaser born every minute?
.

 

Far beyond?
The "average" age of a car on the road is ~12 years. Technically the median and average aren't the same thing, but with a large number of samples they are close. So (very roughly) for every 1 year old car there is a 23 year old car, for every 2 yo a 22 yo, etc. A 15 year life cap means that these cares give up 30-35% of their lifetime compared to traditional cars on the road, since 2nd and 3rd owners keep them running for many years.

Not a good selling point or truly environmental.

Mike

 

Thank you! I was winding up my keyboard to post something similar.

I still can't wrap my head around the idea of buying a certain kind of car for reasons of 'sustainability' when the car is still a disposable product with the same expected lifetime as what it replaces.

I'm not going to demand a lifetime warranty, but how about a pledge for 30 years software & parts support?

 

Source: Tesla To Shut Down Model S/X Production For 18 Days

"Subject: S/X Holiday Shutdown

Hi Team,

The SX lines will be shut down for the holidays starting Dec. 24th and returning Jan. 11th.

We would like you to take the opportunity to refresh or spend time with your family, so Tesla will be giving you a full week pay for the week of Jan. 4th. There will also be limited paid opportunities for you to support other shops or volunteer for deliveries during some of this time.

Dec. 23rd - last day of work before shutdown

Dec. 24th-25th - Paid holidays*

Dec. 28th-30th - Unpaid time off (may use PTO**), support deliveries or other shops.

Dec. 31st-Jan. 1st - Paid Holiday*

Jan. 4th - 8th - Paid time off (40 hours)

Jan. 11th - return to work

If you would like to volunteer for deliveries for Dec. 26th -- Dec. 31st, or support other shops from Dec. 28th - Dec. 30th, please use the survey below to let us know your preference. We will do our best to accommodate your requests, but preferences are not guaranteed and will be granted on a first come first serve basis."​

Nice detail. Now if Tesla used the time to move the Model S/X battery packs to 2170 or better yet, some 4680s, that would be awesome. Perhaps some injection molded parts to reduce parts count and costs.

Bob Wilson

 

An item to keep in mind- most all automobile manufacturers have a winter and summer shutdown week. This is not at all unusual. Much necessary work like factory deep cleaning in the Paint Booths - scheduled equipment refurbishment- large maintenance jobs- model refresh equipment design changes- production floor kaizen implementation all take place during this time. A shutdown like this during a pandemic is to be expected. It also gives the workers a chance to recharge and spend time with their families. Tesla is even giving them a weeks pay - quite a lot of money considering an autoworkers pay scale.

Frankly a bigger story would be if an automaker wasn't shutting down for at least a week in the winter around the Holidays.

TMMK along with every other Toyota Plant in the US has been shutting every 3rd week in July and at least every entire Christmas week for the last 33 years.

 

At least one article mentioned a week shut down is normal. The real news will be what is done to the lines. The S and X were suppose to get an interior update back in 2019 that was put on hold with the Model 3 production, and other technical improvements have been made since the S and X went into production. I believe they got permanent magnet motors, but are still using the batteries Tesla started with.

So can the fuel cell when its power loss becomes unacceptable. People do replace engines and transmissions, but fuel cells and carbon fiber tanks are higher cost. For a commercial truck, that may not matter, for a car, it will likely send it to the junk yard.

A week shut down around the holidays is also normal for Tesla.

 

Or it means that they are retooling for updates to manufacture the upcoming Model S Plaid version and other improvements. Such production shutdowns for a week or two to allow for tooling upgrades are common.

 

Making a statement does not make it a fact.

 

There is proof that that fuel cells do suffer from power output reduction with use, and this reduction is far more than what a conventional car engine will see. A goal set for fuel cell durability was that the average loss would be less than 10% after 5000hrs of use, which is about 150k miles on a car. By that 2013, FCEVs were only going 30k miles before hitting that 10% average. There was improvement before the Mirai, but the mileage was still way under 100k. Maybe the stack in the Mirai does better, but I haven't seen any data from Toyota saying so.

The 10% loss is an average. So FCEVs will see less, and a gradual power loss may not be noticed in their car by some drivers. Some will do far worse, and the only fix is to replace the stack. Something that costs as much as some cars.

Where is the proof that is why they shut down the lines? It is just speculation on the part of some reporters.

There is evidence that Tesla had delayed some planned refreshes for the S and X, and there is a project to retool lines for those cars. Then the three motor Plaid version is due out next year. That will require retooling on its own, and there is likely improvements Tesla wants to make to the models to incorporate other improvements before then.

You are right about about relying on the Model 3 for their end of year goal, but that was true before shutting down these lines. It is the big sellers at any car manufacturer that is the bulk of such goals.

 

Then SHORT the TSLA stock and make a mint.

Bob Wilson