SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

The surge in travel can't possibly be good . . . planes are back in the air, carrying virus all over. Early December is looking very bleak.

 

they were interviewing people at the airport. the sentiment was 'family is more important than health'

 

It will bring exactly what other "super spreader" events should have taught us to expect......only worse.
ALL the "real" experts are fearful.
Unfortunately all of the population in general isn't.
Remember that half of the population is profoundly stupid.

 

The problem is that 80% of those who get COVID-19 do fine. If people think the 2% case mortality rate is low, and you or your loved one is not one in the 2% group, it is hard to control the behavior of 98% based on the 2%.

In my household, our usual in-person Thanksgiving Day gathering is now canceled. Will do the virtual Zoom get together later, but celebrate today just within our small household bubble. The thing is that my wife got our usual 20 lbs turkey. The turkey is in the smoker. Now it's just a waiting game. Once cooked, I will be eating turkey for the next 10 days.

Happy Thanksgiving Day. Stay safe everyone.

 

In most years people gather and give thanks for things like having good health.

Mike

 

and ere i thought they usually gave thanks for their teslas

 

Well, we are getting pretty close to the herd immunity threshold. If the estimation of 8-10 times of confirmed cases is indeed the real infected numbers, then that means over 100 mil US population have already been infected. That's almost 1/3 of the population. Some estimates of the threshold for the herd immunity against COVID-19 suggested the number could be as low as 35-45%. This means we may be approaching the threshold even before the first vaccine is deployed.

Government Model Suggests U.S. COVID-19 Cases Could Be Approaching 100 Million : Coronavirus Updates : NPR

The original ref is this: Estimated incidence of COVID-19 illness and hospitalization — United States, February–September, 2020 | Clinical Infectious Diseases | Oxford Academic

 

There are other countries that offer for sticker rules and penalties for not hunker down/sheltering in-place and you are more than welcome to got to them.

What is really hard for me to understand is how the libtards what population control/reduction because of this and that and then freakout when something comes along like covid and does what they want. Is it because they fear to contract it themselves and not people of say a third-world country? hmm enlighten me ones of the dark-side?

 

By and large, this is a useful, informative thread that should not be fhopoled.

 

"Some estimates" said it would be over by now too.

Most epidemiologists put the figure somewhere between 60 and 80 % depending on several factors.
I don't remember seeing any estimates that low.

I don't think that making statements like that is a responsible thing to do.
Those who will believe anything now have another source to encourage them in spreading BAD information.

 

You are quoting the wrong person for my comment. In any case, if you read leading scientific journals more often, you would have come across a lower than usual estimation for the herd immunity threshold for the COVID-19 many times. Here is one such example.

A mathematical model reveals the influence of population heterogeneity on herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 | Science

Britton et al. show that by introducing age and activity heterogeneities into population models for SARS-CoV-2, herd immunity can be achieved at a population-wide infection rate of ∼40%, considerably lower than previous estimates. ​

 

Yes, I have come across these before and there is an element of truth in them. The lower estimates are based in the concept ‘heterogeneity’ which results from a lack of mixing between high risk and low risk groups.

This was pertinent is the days of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, where original estimates of the spread were much too high, because (at the time) the modellers hadn’t accounted for the non-uniform mixing of risk groups.

However, for this pandemic we are trying to estimate the degree of intergenerational mixing with would be expected to vary between cultural group, but possibly remain fairly high across the board in Western societies. In this situation, and with a known contribution now from airborne transmission, the modelling might remain more similar to seasonal ‘flu and therefore higher than these lower and more optimistic estimates.

 

Sorry about the mis-directed quote. Don't know how/why that happened.

"A mathematical model" is just another term for an educated guess.
It starts out with some assumptions.
Sometimes the assumptions are: wrong or poorly selected.

The result of a mathematical model isn't always fact.

 

You are quite correct. It is not a fact and it was never presented as a fact, not in my comment nor in any of the articles I have cited. Furthermore, scientific models do not always make correct predictions. In fact, good scientific models do not even try to make predictions, instead, they generate projections or “scenarios”.

As far as herd immunity is concerned, "the definition of classical herd immunity originates from mathematical models for the impact of vaccination." You can not talk about herd immunity without considering some mathematical models. The example I pointed is just one such model that shows the scenario of a lower than usual percentage of immunity in the heterogeneous population. If that scenario turns out to be true, it is better than waiting for the effective vaccination to reach a higher percentage, I would think.

 

That makes no sense to me.
How can any "senerio" that indeed has a "lower than usual percentage of immunity" be better than any alternative that accomplishes a HIGHER percentage of immunity ???

 

is there a takeaway of people' s motives? .... iduno

Stats - based on comparing 2018 vs 2020 (only) US death rates/ ALL causes;

(sourced from cdc U.S. death stats)
2018 - 365 days = 2, 839,205

(sourced from cdc U.S. deaths incl covid19)
2020 - (as of Nov 13) 2,465,323

Likely, the last 6 weeks will pass 2018 .... but ....
is there a takeaway?
.

 

only if you work in health care

 

CDC links please?

Speaking of motives -- don't pull the same scam on us that DJTJr attempted when he hid this very important note on the CDC's provisional and very incomplete death counts:

"*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death."

In this CDC link, Table 1 shows a preliminary count of 2,567,064 deaths for the period Jan 26 - Nov 14, 2020, considerably more than you claimed for the longer period from Jan 1. (NB: that total is not displayed, one must download the CSV file and compute the total themselves. Spreadsheets make it very easy.) And it is still clearly incomplete, as illustrated in the "percent of expected deaths" column for the most recent weeks:

Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

That partial count works out to (2,567,064 deaths / 294 days) = 8,731 all-cause deaths/day during this pandemic. Continued for a full year, that would be 3,187,000 deaths in a year (through January 25, 2021), many more that the 7,778/day or 2,839,205/year you listed for 2018.

Here is another CDC link clearly showing this year's increased deaths:
State and National Provisional Counts

12 Month-ending Number of Deaths, June 2020: 3,038,000 (latest month listed)
12 Month-ending Number of Deaths, June 2019: 2,823,000

Excess deaths, June 2020 vs 2019: 215,000.
By then, the CDC was showing only 128,000 deaths labeled as Covid-19.

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The takeaway is that 2020 is showing hundreds of thousands more deaths than recent prior years, but certain scammers and fraudsters are taking advantage of ignorance of that highlighted warning note above to try to hide this year's excess deaths.