Why gas engines are far from dead

I'm a fan too but he sometimes is inaccurate. After getting roasted in comments, he tried to correct the first video with:

The biggest problem in the first video was he did not include efficiency:

• ~25-33% of the gasoline energy goes to mechanical energy
• ~90% of the electrical energy goes to mechanical energy

This explains why an efficient Std Rng Plus Model 3 cost so much less in annual fuel costs (fueleconomy.gov) :

• $450 (1x) - 2020 Std Rng Plus Model 3
• $600 (1.3x) - 2020 Prius Prime (our last Prius traded in for Model 3)
• $1,300 (2.9x) - 2020 Jetta (the bane of Prius vs Jetta trolls)
• $1,400 (3.1x) - 2020 Camry (same sized to Model 3)

Add to that the maintenance savings: no oil changes, no engine air filters, no PVC valves, and no brake pad wear. The aggressive regeneration converts significant kinetic energy into battery charge.

Bob Wilson

 

I give them 10-15 years

 

One thing that puzzles me, is why in the tool flyers I get, the first third is devoted to battery tools. Month after month. It used to be you bought a corded power drill, done. Your kids might inherit it. Now there's this must-have plastic wonder with a proprietory battery, and a spare, and a charger base, and what's their "half-life". Judging from the flyers not so much.

 

Popularity, and not for undue reason.

Are you still using the cord?

 

Engine factory investment

Many years of amortization still needed

 

Or even grandkids.

Yes, because the Sears battery tool I bought (in the 20th Century) is now long past its half-life. As is Sears itself. But Grandpa's corded drill keeps on ticking, 35 years after his own ticker quit.

 

I snapped up one more corded Sears drill, just before they went belly-up up here.

 

This argument was also used against our Prius, the "hybrid premium." But it was as bogus 20 years ago as it is today. For example, no one ever explains the luxury or performance premium cost. Regardless, being a typically 20,000 mile/year owner, I belong to the capital vs operational accounting camp:

• capital - one time expense can include extra features, purchase is binary:
  • trade-in earlier capital goods - a 2017 Prius Prime, ~44% of Model 3 purchase cost
  • purchase complete - about three weeks ago, no more interest or inflated insurance costs paid in part by sale of some TSLA stock that had increased by 2-3x.
• operational - recurring expense that determines if the capital goods can afford to be used
  • Prius Prime was ~1.3x operational cost before maintenance
  • ordinary gas cars, Jetta or Camry, are ~3x operational cost before maintenance

I have no further capital costs, just significantly cheaper operational and maintenance costs.

Bob Wilson

ps. If you make hammers for a living, all problems look like a nail.

 

I personalized the data at fueleconomy.gov to my local price of gas ($2.29/gal) and electricity ($0.21/kWh) leaving everything else at the default. The default value used for your figure was gas ($2.47/gal) and electricity ($0.13/kWh). Within our locality, I save $50/year on PRIME compared to Model 3. BEV may be more efficient, but energy cost-saving is not universal.

 

My Prius (and your former Prime) claim 40% efficiency.

 

That is the engine efficiency AFTER warm-up which is missing from EVs. Yes, the Prius engines have been industry leaders but that still has to reach the tires and includes the warm-up costs. A better approach is to look at EPA projected fuel/electricy costs. This explains why an efficient Std Rng Plus Model 3 cost so much less in annual fuel costs (fueleconomy.gov) :

• $450 (1x) - 2020 Std Rng Plus Model 3
• $600 (1.3x) - 2020 Prius Prime (our last Prius traded in for Model 3)
• $1,300 (2.9x) - 2020 Jetta (the bane of Prius vs Jetta trolls)
• $1,400 (3.1x) - 2020 Camry (same sized to Model 3)

Add to that the maintenance savings: no oil changes, no engine air filters, no PVC valves, no spark plugs, and no brake pad wear. The more aggressive regeneration into an EV battery converts significantly more kinetic energy into battery charge.

Our Prius was good with gentle braking but our Model 3 and BMW i3 both decelerate impressively when the foot is off the accelerator. The term is "one pedal driving." In contrast, our Prius always had the "creep" which meant the mechanical brake had to be applied at a stop.

Bob Wilson

 

We had the same problem with our 2003 Prius when I drove to South Carolina under a dome of Arctic air, temperatures as low as 17 F (-8 C). There was a loss of MPG that tracked with air density. So I've been doing a similar set of benchmarks with my Model 3:

• 38 F (3.3 C) -> 240 kWh/mi
• 51 F (10.6 C) -> 234 kWh/mi
• 64 F (17.8 C) -> 224 kWh/mi

Living in Dixie and with global warming, I'm finding subfreezing weather rare. Regardless, there is a trick EV owners use, "pre-conditioning."

We turn on climate control while the car is plugged in about 30-60 minutes before leaving. The grid provides power not only to warm the cabin and seats but also the battery:

• Scheduled for 7:45 AM to complete around 8:00 AM, it starts at 7:25 AM based on temperature
• At 7:35 AM the battery was warm enough to trigger a short battery charge
• At 8:05 AM, preconditioning ended and the car was ready to go

Now if you have a modern gas car, you can also remotely start the engine to warm up the car. Of course the engine will still toss a significant amount of energy warming about 300 lb block of metal, coolant, and catalytic converter and dumped out the tail pipe. Never published, I remember seeing 0.05-0.10 gallons burned in our Prius but that was ages ago. You might do a similar study.

Bob Wilson

 

Again, please don't use the COST differences in order to explain the efficiency difference between EV and ICE cars. The cost of energy has nothing to do with the efficiency. If the gas price gets lower to $1/gal and electricity rate increases to $.30/kwh, which is not totally out of realm in this wild global economic environment, then no mater how efficient EVs are, the operation cost of gasser will be cheaper. In this scenario, most car buyers are going to buy 2020 VW Jetta or 2020 Toyota Camry over 2020 PRIME or Testla Model 3. Of course, if a PRIME buyer use absolutely no charging and drive PRIME as a pure HV, then the 2020 PRIME would be the most economical car of all.

 

A little 'long on the tooth', Bjørn Nyland does a lot of subfreezing weather . . . in Norway:

Bob Wilson

 

That is a fair criticism so let's start with the direct energy metrics from your chart. But there are two units, gasoline and kWh:

Fortunately, Wiki shows the conversion factors for either kWh or gas:

• 33.70 kWh per gallon of gas
• 0.029674 gallons of gas per kWh

So here are the four vehicles and their relative energy efficiency based on gas or kWh:

• 2020 Toyota Camry - 19.2% efficient
  • 3.7 gal/100 mi (gas)
  • 125 kWh/100 mi
• 2020 Volkswagen Jetts - 19.8% efficient
  • 3.6 gal/100 mi (gas)
  • 121 kWh/100 mi
• 2020 Toyota Prius Prime - 37.5% efficient gas, 96% efficient EV
  • 1.9 gal/100 mi (gas)
    • 64 kWh/100 mi (EV
  • 25 kWh/100 mi (EV)
    • 0.742 gal/100 mi
• 2020 Tesla Model 3 - 100% efficient gas or EV
  • 0.712 gal/100 mi
  • 24 kWh/100 mi

Understand that I support your proposed costs for gasoline and electricity. Mandating $1/gal would quickly run petroleum businesses into bankruptcy and significantly increase the resale value of our two EVs. Better still, getting electricity to $0.30/kWh would also be an instant boon for my TSLA stock that is selling solar roofs.

Bob Wilson

 

I would have guessed 0% efficient on gas since it cannot use that fuel by default.