Featured 6 year lead on EV Computers

You may well be right about Tesla always being able to move faster without the baggage the legacy makers have even if they have billions more. If the shift to EVs happens as some suspect, and I hope (actually my daily driver is an EV but I still have my prius) it will be very interesting to see how these large companies like Toyota, VW, and GM adapt. it is certainly a great thing Tesla came along and kicked everyone else in the rear, I do want others to catch up so we can have a variety of compelling choices. VW at least appears to be putting some effort into it with more offerings and building out EA stations, albeit a lot of that is due to dieselgate and may be short lived.

 

One of my YouTube channels is Fully Charged that recently showed the Mach-E reveal in the UK. A brilliant decision because the EU is sympathetic to EVs whereas the USA dealers are EV hostile.

Bob Wilson

 

"Always" is a long time. Industrial history is littered with companies that once dominated then were overtaken. Why, I'm old enough to remember when IBM dominated computers and it was obvious nobody would ever surpass them.

In 10, 15 or 20 years, will Tesla be the dominant maker of BEVs? Maybe. Maybe not.

 

IBM still does OK in big computers but how about Sears? Sears dominated mail order, now they are closing stores like crazy they should have been Amazon. K-Mart was a so common, Montgomery Wards, Radio Shack. Remember Gateway PCs? Packard Bell? One thing though the big automakers like GM, Toyota and VW (just to name a few) also need to adapt if the future goes the way of EVs or they will end up like Sears, K-mart and Montgomery Ward. I am very pro BEV but I also need to entertain the possibility I am wrong about the future, will everyone actually switch or want to? I think BEVs are going to seriously take off but we are still in only a couple percent of actual sales.

 

Please clarify, did you miss the word "favorite" in this comment, or is Fully Charged really your YouTube channel?

 

My predication:
- 2/4 may seriously try to catch up
- Only 1/4 will actually succeed
- They will still not surpass Tesla, just reach a level of semi-parity

 

The problem traditional car makers have is their expensive sales channel. All those dealers dependent on changing oil every 5 or 10k. All that floor space. All that real estate. All those cars made somewhat future proof with OTA updates thus delaying the buying of a newer car. As sales decline and maintenance revenues decline, are traditional car manufacturers going to be prepared to go to a lean sales channel?

 

I used to Patron support Fully Charged but their Euro advocacy over an engineering approach turned me off. The same occurred with Transport Evolved although their problem is something else.

Physics, math, and chemistry and you’ll have my interest.

Bob Wilson

 

Stealerships need to go! We need to put state and federal prosecutors on their tail and go after them for racketeering, fraud, and overcharging. The Prius owner's group on Facebook just had a new post from someone who was quoted $980 to replace a flipping PCV valve. This is insane!!! How many people are being ripped off every day by this racket? We need to shut 'em all down as a way to fight disorganized crime! It would be the best thing you could do to help small local mechanics who run an honest businesses with reasonable prices.

 

I love the small local mechanics and use one for my prius. We need a way for them to be compensated for warranty repairs on new cars. Not sure why people would keep going to the dealerships for oil and repairs. I too see little value in dealers the best I can come up with is being able to buy a brand new car today without waiting for an order (stock on a lot) but really I have never required that. Another is those warranty repairs. Another is supposed exerptice in the cars they support, I have been pretty impressed by some small mechanics though. Thanks to Tesla we may eventually see the end of the dealership model, do even the automakers get much out of dealerships? Dealerships are privately owned and hard to hold to a consistent standard so that can hurt your brand, if I was Toyota or whomever I would not be comfortable with that.

 

Unfortunately, there's more to a warranty repair than just fixing the car. You have to use factory parts and then retain the parts for a certain amount of time just in case the manufacturer wants them back for examination, etc.. It gets pretty complicated.

 

'bill gates buys porcshe taycan bev'

about a hundred years ago, legacy airlines said they couldn't compete with start ups like jet blue because they weren't saddled with bad routes and the like.

 

This is mostly a problem for the US/North America. In other markets, the car companies already have direct stores.

 

Do you watch the YouTube channel Engineering Explained? He has a car focus and more of an EV one lately. Love how he is impartial and just lets the math speak for themselves.

 

He does a good job but occasionally, screws up. For example, he did a video comparing relative energy of gasoline and batteries BUT failed to include energy conversion efficiency. An ICE will typically provide only 1/3d of the gasoline energy while a battery drivetrain will typically have better than 90% efficiency. His follow-up video was a little 'long on the tooth' and could be edited down. Regardless, all the basics were covered.

Bob Wilson

 

And apparently Tesla is switching from 2170 cylindrical to Prismatic battery cells and they are not Lithium Ion: CATL-Built Tesla Model 3 Battery Pack Will Use Prismatic Cells | CleanTechnica

 

horrors!

 

We may get more facts and data: "Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the company is preparing to host a Battery Day for shareholders sometime after the first quarter, possibly in April."

There is some applicable history:

• 1997 Prius - used available "D" size NiMH cells
• 2001 Prius - used prismatic cell assemblies, six cells per module
• 2019 Prius aftermarket - a "D" size NiMH cell assembly, 12 cells per double module

In the beginning, necessity forced Tesla to use 'laptop' cells, 18650. So Tesla designed and built their own battery packs and all but wiped out their competition. Now Tesla is large enough that CATL may offer an affordable, prismatic battery assembly. Then there is the problem of energy density.

To achieve high performance, the EV needs a lot of energy per pound or kg. Historically, the lithium iron phosphate batteries have seen less energy dense than the 18650 and 21700 cells. So the risk is the Chinese Teslas will have shorter range and more modest performance. The weight savings of going cell-to-pack would need to compensate for the poor chemistry, energy density.

Bob Wilson

 

I am very bad at chemistry, but I think LFP battery cells are also a sort of Lithium ion battery cell, but with a different electrode material.
Also, from what I have read elsewhere, "switching from" is a somewhat imprecise wording. I would say: adding a new prismatic cell short range battery pack option to the further available cylindrical cell standard and long range battery pack options.

If my understanding that the CATL batteries are only for an additional, cheaper, short range, low performance version is true, then there should be no problem or risk with lower energy and power density. In fact I suspect that the battery casing will even have some empty space left over inside.

What I find remarkable is that other auto manufacturers are reportedly being forced to limit production due to a shortage of batteries from their suppliers, but Tesla can seemingly just call up one of the leading automotive battery suppliers and secure a battery supply on short notice.