Featured Does the Toyota Mirai tease a sportier direction for the next Prius?

With a low miles 3rd gen garage queen, I'll probably just sit tight, lol.

 

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maybe because you can refuel your very long range hydrogen car in minutes just like a gas one rather than hour for shorter "long" range EV ?

 

but where would one find a refueling station?

and how could one start each day with a full tank, like plugging in at home or work?

 

Which is why I think an extended range EV that uses a hydrocarbon fuel will win out. You get the EV for most of your trips, with faster refueling for long ones. With people using less liquid fuel overall, you can start mandating higher renewable content as the increased cost will be easier to sell when people are buying less. A renewable methane to liquid fuel is better than ethanol in terms of existing infrastructure. Ethanol requires upgrading pipelines, but that would be cheaper than building hydrogen ones.

 

will win out in the end?

i think in the end (at least before a major discovery in energy tech) batteries will win the day with low cost, long range, and fast charging

 

That is not an ECO point. Its comfort only, at a ECO price. Loosing 2/3 of energy purly for comfort is a ECO killer. You have that comfort in ICE car. Fill up in minute. Do if you would try to replace ICE with HYDR from ECO point, it has no sense couse its not ECO to loose 2/3 of energy you allready have.

Now onother point. I would trade any time comfort od ROAD TRIPS over 400miles (fill up fast) for comfort of filling up my EV at home for 95% of the year, and having only 5% discomfort of waiting an hour on a road trip.

SM-G973F ?

 

Fast charging is abusive to today's batteries. Tesla is dealing with lawsuits over capacity loss, their used car warranty, and service methods in older cars now. The updated warranty also has an out for battery capacity reduction by OTA.

Before that, I didn't see BEVs working for everyone on long trips. I see the appeal of taking some extended breaks on a long road trip, but I also want to get where I'm going and over with. The really fast chargers for near fuel fill up speeds, will need more upgrades on the grid side, which will raise the cost and slow roll out.

BEVs may win out in the end for private cars, but it requires changes in the public's idea of the personal car. Along with political changes to get the chargers out there for those that can't change home or work now. I think PHEVs will have a long life because of that.

 

that's why i call it the end, and i do believe we are talking about private cars. (albeit, not the correct thread for it, some may think that a sportier looking prius will solve all of the worlds transportation issues)

i have no idea how long it will take to get to the end, or if the end is really the end, or just another bridge to newer and better technology.

 

Mirais that have come off lease we’re extremely cheap last month when we went to see them at Longo Toyota. Almost free if you consider the $15k hydrogen card offer. Too bad the rear seats do not fold down, I guess because the hydrogen tank is somewhere around there.

Tesla should have continued with the battery swap idea.....

 

It makes all the sense in the world, if you can pull it off, but with the charge station investment, that ship has sailed

 

Yes on the hydrogen tank placement. it is also why the Clarity FCEV seats don't fold down, and why it has less trunk space than the PHEV.

CARB changed the rules after Tesla brought it out, so battery swapping wouldn't count for the fast refueling ZEV credits. It was also during the time when all Tesla's had free Supercharger access, and most chose to wait and charge than swap the battery.

 

So:

• I should ignore a 1,980 mile trip costing $60 during the recent winter storms?
• I should ignore the 19,197 miles on my 10 month old, Model 3?
• I should ignore the 711 mile trip to the Sandy Munro EV conference last June that cost $25?
• Should I also ignore the $760 current price of my TSLA stock bought in the $220-320 range?

You may want to reconsider your claim or add the source(s) so we can address them one-by-one. In the meanwhile, I'll go by my 'lying eyes.'

Bob Wilson

 

No.
I'm saying real world reliability of BEVs is not yet proven to make calling them the 'winner' in the end a safe bet. Tesla has been selling mass production cars for just over 7 and a half years. The Leaf has been available for longer, but I don't think we need to rehash its problems. The data looks promising for the Teslas over distance, but time is still a factor for service life.

 

This is an article from a year ago, so take it with a grain of salt.

Toyota struggles to save breakthrough Prius hybrid

"Still, Toyota officials concede that the 2019 updates aren’t going to be enough to keep Prius a viable player going into a future where, as Brinley points out, virtually all products will use some form of electric drive. General Motors and Volkswagen are planning to eliminate gas and diesel drive technology entirely.

"“Toyota has to be ready to respond to these trends” reshaping the automotive market and might even have to consider the possibility of either shifting to a crossover body style or adding a CUV to the broader Prius family that today also includes the small Prius C and bigger Prius V.

"“I don’t think Prius can be the same as before,” said Kaneko, looking forward to the gen-5 model that is just now beginning to enter the development process. “Our role is to figure out what we can do with it. We need to find a new direction.”"

A new direction. Can't be the same as before. Responding to marketplace trends. A Prius "family." Keep those things in mind as I engage in some pure speculation, and show my hand on what would get me to buy another Prius.

Let's look at some holes/niches/problem areas in Toyota's lineup. No BEV, when the Tesla Model 3 is killing it, the upcoming Tesla Model Y is likely to as well, and the Chevy Bolt is showing that a mainstream BEV can be competitively priced. Hyundai/Kia with the Ioniq and Niro have shown that you can make a hybrid, a PHEV, and a BEV, all on one platform, without sacrificing any cargo space or passenger room, with lower ride height for efficiency and a higher ride height for a more CUV look and feel. The Corolla Hybrid is just as efficient as the Prius, but in a more conventional-looking sedan package. The Camry Hybrid is nearly as efficient as the Prius, but in a conventional sedan package. The RAV4 Hybrid is very efficient, picking up where the Prius v left off.

In my opinion, there's space in the Toyota lineup for something more car-like than the RAV4, but with the great space utilization of a CUV, that's roomier than the current Prius, puts the hip point of the driver higher than the current Prius, and could be offered in a Hybrid, PHEV, and a BEV, especially if Toyota is able to bring the solid-state batteries to market. Imagine...similar or better mpg as the current Prius in a hybrid model, more cargo space & better packaging in a Prius Prime replacement with a 40-50 mile electric range, and a BEV with a Tesla-like 300+ mile range. All that is very possible (even without the solid-state batteries), and honestly necessary if Toyota wants to remain competitive in this segment that they created.

If Toyota brought out a PHEV Prius with a 40-50 mile electric range, with better cargo space than the current Prime, all in a killer-styled package, I'd have a serious "shut up and take my money" moment with my local Toyota dealer.

EDIT: Toyota, if you're reading this, PLEASE take a page from Hyundai/Kia in your car designs in terms of front-seat legroom and kneeroom. My 6'6" husband with a 36 inch inseam fits great in almost all Hyundai/Kia products, but doesn't fit in a RAV4, Sequoia, Tundra, Tacoma, Camry, or Avalon, and barely fits in the current gen Prius. His knees make contact with the dash on all but the Prius, and in that he has just a little clearance. Americans are taller than they used to be, and the limitations on legroom & kneeroom in most of today's offerings are pushing us towards Hyundai/Kia.

 

it is unlikely that toyota could build a profitable bev in the near future. they don't need carb credits, so there's no point to building a compliance car like everyone but tesla, and it's too late to try to compete with tesla, they are already 5 years behind.

 

How's the Lexus division profit? A big-battery BEV is going to need a Lexus pricetag for the foreseeable future. On the other hand if gas & hybrid Lexuseses are selling profitably to targets, there's little pressure.

 

I disagree that it's too late to compete with Tesla. Right now in the US, electric car sales make up somewhere around 2% of all auto sales. California has a goal of 5 million electric cars on the road by 2030, and right now it's at about 11 percent of that goal. There is definitely room for growth in the electric car market.

On profitability: right now, a BEV can't compete with a similarly-sized gasser on cost. And depending on where one lives, electricity rates might not make "refueling" a BEV much cheaper than filling a tank with gas. The charging infrastructure in the US is improving all the time, but there are still a lot of limitations to it, and the time it takes to "refuel" a BEV is FAR longer than with a conventional gasser, although that's improving too. Those who live in apartments/condos or who rent their house might have no option to be able to charge at home. That positions electric vehicles as an option for those who WANT to run on electricity, can install a charging station at home, AND can afford to do so...electrics are not a viable option for a significant chunk of the US market. Something (I'm not sure what) needs to change so that electric cars are more comparable in price with their gas counterparts, and charging is faster and more widely available.

I'm not convinced that a plug-in BEV is the long-term "right answer" for the US market, although Tesla (and its competitors) are making me question that, with charge times shortening and the ever-expanding charge network. I love the idea of the Murai, but the hydrogen infrastructure isn't in place yet to make it a viable option unless you live in silicon valley and have another vehicle for travel outside that area. I hope that manufacturers keep trying to push boundaries and keep improving vehicles and technology to use less fuel, and that they don't give up on an entire market segment. Giving up or ignoring an entire market segment when the market is heading that direction...we see what that did to Kodak, Blockbuster, etc.

 

Which is why Toyota is making their first BEV, a Lexus. They’ll recoup some of the costs via a higher expected price tag because it is a Lexus. So they are taking a page from Tesla’s playbook. And in a market (geographically as well as politically) far more friendly to BEV requirements.


Unsupervised!

 

Over 12 years too late. Tesla's Roadster came out in 2008.