Featured The coming electric vehicle transformation

I think you have that a bit backwards. The quantity of fuel processed now keeps the price down. Once it no longer has the high demand the price of crude will not fall in the long term it will increase, the cost of refining is spread over the total litres through put so that will go up as well as the transport costs.
Fuel emissions is what will force the ICE cars off the road, only the rich will be able to afford the pollution tax and carbon tax burning fossil fuel will incur, and that will probably be applied at the pump. then the same deal as is being implemented in in major cities across the world, a hefty tax for a sticker to allow smog producing vehicles into the city areas, where electric only vehicle will not require that tax sticker .... it doesn't take long for fossil fuelled vehicles to become too expensive to run as an every day car, then only the rich will have them as expensive toys .....

T1 Terry

 

As far as recharging the electric vehicles .... a silly argument that often gets thrown up by those who are anti EV. Do you see every ICE vehicle lined up at the bowser every afternoon? Of course you don't and we often see what happens when panic buying starts because of a threat to supply, the threat becomes real because the supply system can't keep up.
we recharge our plug in Prius every day, not because we need to but because it's parked beside our 7 mtr motorhome and we simply plug into the solar while we are at work.
About the only ones who might have to fully recharge every night are the same ones who have to refill the tank every night because they will be on the road before the fuel stations open ...... it's that silly an argument. There are times during the day and night when the grid is way below peak demand and the EV isn't being used, so why wouldn't an off peak switching system top the car up then rather than when the grid was under stress.
Let's look at the grid under stress thing for a minute, if you have 60 or 80 plus kWh storage in the EV parked in the garage, why couldn't you use that to support the grid during the peak times and then replace it when the grid load is lower? Not rocket science is it? Can the fleet of ICE cars do that at the moment?

T1 Terry

 

You are only partially correct there. Price reduction was the result of both increased production (both due to fracking and processing) and reduced demand - or I should say, an over-stated demand forecast which resulted in a surplus. The rest is conjecture. Currently states and commonwealths appear to be more inclined to increase taxation on hybrids and EV's to redress a perceived imbalance and re-coupe revenue that would have otherwise been collected with existing gasoline excise taxes. Considering how bureaucracies tend to become addicted to such taxes and view them as windfalls for increased spending, it is doubtful that they will withdraw them. Once established for hybrids and EV's, any increase in gasoline taxes will be dimly regarded by the public, since they are, and will be, still largely dependent upon ICE technology. As such, in contrast to your assertion, any increase in gasoline tax will be viewed upon as discriminatory against the less affluent.

I am not sure who you were addressing your second comment to, as I had nothing to say with regard to recharging EV's.

 

The recharging was in answer to this post. I have to read all the replies that appeared while we had a sleep over this side of the planet :lol:
In the very short term there would be a petrol glut and prices would drop to clear the excess from storage, but if the demand fell, so would production. The US has plenty of oil reserves, they just can't compete on price when the oil sheiks drop their prices to force the completion to either run at a loss or shut up shop. Once the demand drops, so will the oil income, no point in selling it cheaper because it isn't a case of over supply any more, it is a case of under demand.
When the travelling public went from horses to horseless cartages, the price for a good riding horse would have dropped for a short time, but is it cheap to buy and own a horse these days? A wagon or carriage to be built or repaired? The demand for service is so small now only a few service providers are left so they can demand a premium price for their services, what makes you thing things will be any different when it comes to fuel and parts and qualified people to do the repairs?
The film v digital change over, lead acid to lithium batteries is happening now and at the moment lead acid batteries are cheaper than they ever have been because they are yesterdays technology and worthless left on the shelf. Battery manufacturers were every where when I started in the automotive trade, so were mechanics, how much per hr to get a knowledgeable mechanic to actually diagnose and fix your car rather than just replace parts till the problem goes away or you run out of money? How much to get a battery builder to build you a battery these days, you know, one of those ones where you could melt the tar out of the top and replace the faulty plates ......
The ICE car won't disappear, the horse didn't, but how often do you see a horse being used as the main form of commuting and when was the last time you saw a stable that would look after the horse close to town when it was used as transport to work.

T1 Terry

 

Well, one thing I forgot to mention was that the gasoline situation in the states was not simply a supply and demand situation. Before fracking, we were just as dependent on the cartels as everyone else. After fracking, we became an exporter, and even though we really are not very competitive in that market, changing from a dependent consumer to an independent exporter had a huge effect on prices. Since then, it has become more supply and demand oriented, breaking the earlier political status quo.

The horse analogy was being used (by someone else) as an analog to the speculative demise of ICE which I thought was misplaced. I don't think you can make the 18th century comparison to a 20th/21st century technology that people still depend on today. Yes, the EV will eventually surpass the ICE, but it will not supplant it anytime soon.

 

Electrification of vehicles is a great thing in that it gives a consumer choices for powering their vehicle. We own a PHEV and love the electric option.

One hurdle with BEV and other electric vehicles vs ICE vehicles is this - An ICE vehicle can pull into a gas station fill up in 5 minutes and have instant power to traverse 600 miles, at the end of 600 miles spend 5 minutes filling up again and then travel another 600 miles and so on.

Currently a BEV can not nor any other electric vehicle can not match this instant power and range. BEV will be a niche alternative until they solve the need for instant power rather than a 3 to 12 hour hold over for recharge.

For the niche of a commuter car that can be used during the day within its range and then charged at night to repeat the cycle the BEV is a perfect match- If the gas price to electric price ratio is the right mix to save money.

For many common people economics and practicality is the deciding factor to buy an electric vehicle.

We will be driving from the Central US to remote parts of Wyoming and South Dakota next year for a 2 week camping and hiking outing- a BEV can not even be a consideration for taking this trip. ( I doubt Custer State Park, The Black Hills or the Badlands have readily available chargers in their remote locations)

BEV are wonderful vehicles in their niche but need improvements especially in refueling/charging to meet everyone's needs.

 

by 3000, all those objections will be overcome

 

In 2016 we bought an end-of-lease, 2014 BMW i3-REx with a 72 mile EV and 78 mile gas range (aka., ~1:15 hh:mm.) We drove ~650 miles between Huntsville AL and Stillwater OK filling the 2 gallon tank in 2/11.5 ~= 17% of your '5 minutes' or ~50 seconds of gas pump time. But my wife and her three dogs took a longer biology break which was more like 20-30 minutes.

I recommend using http://www.plugshare.com to check on chargers. It is not tied to any given charging network or architecture and includes a trip planner. The 2014 BMW i3-REx taught us valuable lessons about long distance EV driving with the security of the range extender. In practice, the roles are reversed: (1) start in EV to 75% SOC; (2) drive on REx, and; (3) use EV if there is a gas station problem.

BTW, most RV camp sites allow ordinary tents and have NEMA 14-50 outlets that can fully charge my Tesla overnight. A lot of hotels/motels have found free, overnight charging brings in us well-off, clever, EV owners.

Bob Wilson

 

Excellent point about availability of power in RV parks - this never crossed my mind. This shows the value of others experience and ideas. I am an experience outdoors man and camper and unbelievably this didn't cross my mind

I think that still dances around the current main advantage of gasoline- instant portable power for long ranges.

As a PHEV owner I am an advocate of electric power but it still has a way to go to match the convenience of gas for timely long distance traveling.
.
We have all electric power tools- mower, weed eater and blower. I would not consider going back to gas units. These tools fit their niche perfectly with portable exchangeable lithium batteries.

A funny thought occurred to me while writing this post. On our trip to remote areas once in the area we will be using a renewable , ecological and energy responsible mode of traveling that enhances the earth with its byproduct - horses.

 

Been there. That's one of my favorite states to visit. Spent a month rock climbing in Wyoming back in '76. Tetons, Big Horn, Devil's Tower. Amazing scenery. I think of it every time I listen to Dvorak or Ugly Casanova's (Modest Mouse - Isaac Brock's) "So Long To The Holidays".

 

You have been watching to many Toyota/Lexus commercials
Misinformation is the only hope ICE manufacturers have of slowing the tidal wave that is coming.

 

ice9 we were in that area 3 years ago and are going back this year. The memories you shared remind me of how exciting these areas really are. Devils Tower area was one of the most inspiring sights I ever been too. When we were there last there was a group of Native Americans putting on prayer ribbons on bushes around the Devils Tower. I never feel more alive or in touch with the world than when we are at some of these remote areas and sights.

 

Yeah, it does that to you - and I can't find an emoticon that expresses it adequately.

Mystical.

 

If you find enough change under the couch cushions, the Porsche Taycan is a muscle car that happens to be electric. Over 600 HP, 0 to 60 in 2.7 seconds and nice looking. It has one motor driving the front wheels and a second motor driving the rear wheels.

I used to be into the muscle cars and trying to extract every horsepower but now I am content to get in the Prius and watch the MPG gauge.

 

There have, in fact, been a few electric "muscle cars" built recently. Impressive too, but they don't really fit the genre - being more of a novelty item than anything else. Aesthetically, they are short one critical ingredient.

Like vintage piston engine aircraft, aesthetically, the traditional muscle car must have engine noise.

 

and the Model S does the 0-60 even faster, 2.2 seconds - seats up to 7, & charging off your PV panels? you don't even HAVE to watch mpg because fuel can be free.
& unlike Porsche - you get a nation wide charge infrastructure

.

 

This summer my wife and I did a ton of traveling in our BEV. We traveled the length of South Dakota several times and went all through Badlands, Custer, Black Hills area, and Devil's Tower. Then on a separate trip we went to Yellowstone, Tetons, and Glacier. Much of that second trip we did by charging in campground overnight. For the rest we used DCFC. We never once felt like we were holding the group up (the rest had ICE vehicles) due to our BEV. We just scheduled charging during meal and bathroom breaks. In fact, it was the other way around. We found ourselves waiting for them at the gas station quite a bit.

 

Direct Current Fast Charge, otherwise known as level 3 charging.

 

I thought it was a DC QC
You say potato ....

.