Featured The coming electric vehicle transformation

i'm already transformed, just waiting for that battery tech

 

you got that right!

 

Science? or advocacy

 

Scroll down to Commentary => Perspectives ... that's the category it was published under, and the author guidelines will show what the expectations are in that category.

 

It's not hard to do the math. Most plug-in hybrid driver's first had regular hybrids because that's all that was available. After that? The largest volume of folks jumping ship from the Prius went to the model 3. The history speaks for itself.
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but keep following the math, and you'll find that the transformation won't be complete until the year 3000

 

At which point they will be driven by rats.

 

good use of rats too

 

It almost seems inevitable at this point that in coming years once most of the transition to electric happens there's going to be a requirement that any new ICE vehicles that depend on fossil fools will be required by law to have an electric motor and battery pack in it. I mostly want something like that because of all the idiots that sit in their car staring at their phone for hours with their engine running going nowhere. If you had hybrid technology in all those cars they wouldn't be such poisonous planet destroying idiots. Of course they'd probably find another way to be idiots real quick.

 

Just read an article about Mazda finally seeing it had no choice but to follow the electric vehicle future path. Also, next yr.'s Nissan will have an 85kWh battery, the Kona already comes with a 64kWh battery, so it appears the battery tech is already here.
Anyone see that TED Talk about the change to electric cars? It starts off with a photo of a busy city street with horses every where and a close look reveals one or two cars. A few yrs later, the same scene but one or two horses, the rest horseless carriages. The change happens much faster than people realise, will the whole fuel station industry be ready? There are solar and charging station upgrade kits for sale to Australian fuel stations with pay as you go finance included, is that sort of thing available in the US?

T1 Terry

 

I'll buy an electric car when they come with standardized, swappable battery packs. When I can "fill my tank" in the same amount of time it takes to actually fill my tank, I'm there. Otherwise, I'm among the 10s of millions of Americans who have no way to charge at home, and I don't want to sit at some random charging station for the 4-8 hours it will take to "fill" a current electric car.

 

The problem with rats is they'd all have to be female. One female in heat and all the males would be headed in one direction. Remembering the recent Boeing 737 problem, triflex makes more sense.

Bob Wilson

 

IMHO crossover is 15 years away not around 5 and that includes phevs. It is likely that phevs can crossover in the luxury and sports car market mostly in one design cycle around 5 years. The only advantage a well designed full hybrid over a well designed phev is cost and those costs are going to be very low soon (12 kwh lithium pack versus a 1.5 kwh nimh will likely be less than $1500, then only chargers and inverter costs matter and they are coming down). The advantages of a phev versus a ice is more immediate power (acceleration), better weight distribution (handling), no idling. 48 V mild hybrids will take over those vehicles that are not going plug-in in cars costing more than $20K. I don't think anyone other than toyota will be making non-plug-in full hybrids in 7 years.

For BEVs the big things are mental and infrastructure. Once costs are competitive its a matter of getting the charging or swap infrastructure, and to get people to not have range anxiety. Currently if you run out of gas its pretty easy to get some, run out of charge and you need a tow to a plug (some service vehicles may be able to charge).

 

Hyundai-Kia and Honda are making full hybrids, and Renault will also start with the Clio (subcompact) very soon.
Toyota is not alone in pushing full hybrids, AG, it has to do with the concept of lowest emissions possible without a plug, 'cause not everybody can effectively plug the car overnight.

 

Given that the best selling car in America today is “Whatever you’ve got under $10k and still has a few years left,” I would tend to agree.

 

I doubt it. There will always be a market for muscle cars... ...especially if the rest of us buy EVs and force the price of gasoline down even further.

 

Ford also has two full hybrids coming, but full hybrids can easily become a PHEV. Ford has more mild hybrids and plug ins planned than full hybrids in the coming years.