Featured Toyota Won’t Make A Proper EV Because Dealers Say It Won’t Sell

Was watching Autoline today. Interesting stats.

EV sales out sell PHEV. But if you look closer like the program said.... it is because of Tesla. The other EVs sale numbers stink.

What is the difference between Tesla and the other automakers? Oh right, those dealers don't want you to buy an EV.

 

As of this year, Tesla/the Model 3 has certainly been the sole driving force of BEV segment growth and is sucking the air out of the room for competitors. (N.B., the competition has also done this well enough to themselves)

There remain the many (all of the) unfilled $35k MSRP Model 3 orders that should start getting delivered sometime next year. Once those get caught up and the likes of Kia Niro EV and Hyundai Kona EV are being delivered and no longer supply constrained, the non-Tesla BEV segment will resume double digit growth.

In the meantime Tesla will single-handedly lead BEV segment growth.

 

Considering that's the only applicable vehicles they sell...I hope so.

 

I hope after the BEV in just an average car someone will come up with kits to convert existing cars to electric. I think it will be done but maybe not at a high volume.

 

Again, how can you be so stubborn? I know the current situation and it's got nothing to do with what is possible with a little more money and engineering. Transaxle is composed of two electric motors and some gears, gears don't have a problem with cooling, el. motors do, and as I said earlier, just add a little more cooling or make the appropriate el. motors to deal with more power or make the cooling with something else than ATF oil (just seperate MGs from gears).

And a hybrid pickup can still have a low transfer case in case of "rock crawling".

 

Already happening.

Reversible EV Conversion | PriusChat

 

Yep - it's the outlier - minority within the minority that will ever want to pull this much weight with a plugin.

It's even a minority of gassers - that ever hook up a hitch.
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The Supercharger network is also a big draw. If someone really wanted a 200+ mile BEV, they can get a Bolt right now, with full federal credit, instead of waiting for the Model 3. Some are doing so, but not in a meaningful amount.

There were a few companies doing conversions before the Leaf arrived. I think the cost won't support an actual conversion industry unless there are things like ICE bans in effect.

Now, the cost of custom conversions will drop, and there is plenty of info already out there for DIY converters.

Plenty of truck buyers will look at what a truck is capable of without even planning to tow.

Then there are the RVers, farmers, and others that actually tow a fifth wheel trailer. Many of the pick ups I see used by landscape and construction companies are towing double axle trailers. These aren't the majority of pick up buyers, but their needs require burning more fuel. Plus, there are the chassis trucks used for box vans and other commercial rigs. Don't we want to see a hybrid option that works and accepted for these co, or are we okay with diesel for those uses?

If it was merely a case of just a little more money and engineering, why did Toyota form a partnership with Ford in order to develop a hybrid system for a truck?

Gears may not have a problem with cooling, but their lubricants do, which is why ATF for the PSD is a fail. ATF has to perform two main jobs, lubricate and act as hydraulic fluid for shifting the transmission. This results in the fluid not being very heat tolerant. Conventional ATF starts breaking down at 200F. That isn't very hot considering what the engine and other components are reaching. Synthetics are better, but still not as heat tolerant as the motor or gear oil many manual transmissions use. When the ATF breaks down from heat, it can't do its two jobs.

I pointed out that the Highlander hybrid does add more cooling for the ATF, but it still requires AWD to receive a tow rating 1500 pounds lower than the V6 ICE model. The Prius has ATF cooling, and can finally tow 750kg, but the Aveo with the 1.4L turbo can tow 1100kg.

 

@Trollbait Regarding that Highlander and its reduced tow rating...

I would expect braking to be a bigger challenge than acceleration, because the driver can suddenly demand all of it for safety.

How much of that de-rating might be related to dynamic braking? In a Prius, the difference between "wet empty" and max gross is around 950lbs. So the overall mass changes maybe 25% between empty and full. It's going to be a bigger swing than that for a truck, especially for the braking load when towing.

How do you plan your gear ratios and regeneration math with regards to braking when the vehicle mass starts high and can change by 50% from one trip to the next? They've got to be ready for weird cases. What if you drag an empty trailer to the top of a mountain, load it with 4000lbs and then drive back down to the bottom? Those gears are going to get worked over hot on a run like that.

I'm sure it can be done, just pointing out what I think is a less-than-obvious problem with PSD in a truck.

 

InsideEV reveals that Tesla has sold 159,028 EV's through November.
Prius Prime has sold 24, 836; Volt 18,648 and Bolt 16,907.

It appears Toyota and GM are abdicating the market to Tesla.

 

no question. even a great toyota bev would only take so many tesla sales, not enough to interest them until the overall numbers grow.
disappointing, but nature of the beast.

 

And how many Teslas have sold at Toyota & GM prices?

Not fair to claim that Toyota & GM have abdicated something that nobody else is participating in either.

It's Audi, BMW, Cadillac & Mercedes that have lost these sales to Tesla.

 

and lexus

 

As reported in August (it would be interesting to see an update), the top non-Tesla trade-in vehicles were:

1. Prius
2. BMW-3 series
3. Honda Accord
4. Honda Civic
5. Nissan Leaf

Here are the top 5 cars Tesla Model 3 buyers are trading in - Electrek

Toyota & GM HAVE participated in sedans. GM is pulling back, while Tesla gains market share. That is pretty much the definition of abdicating.

It doesn’t matter what the prices are, if people are choosing Tesla even though they are priced higher.

 

following used teslas on car guru & ebay? all of 'em sell.

that's only true IF Toyota & GM were not participating .... but they are. Their participation is like the little Dutch kid sticking 3 fingers in the dyke to stop leaks. That's how Toyota & GM participate .... by doing too little too late. Their neglect to do their best - years earlier - proactively - may very well, like the Little Dutch kid (or his entire community) put today's situation in much greater peril.

Them too ... & Porsche/VW

He who fights but runs away ~
Lives to fight another day

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The new Rav4 Adventure has a tow rating equal to the Highlander hybrid. It has torque vectoring AWD and, probably more importantly, assisted descent control.

There is more nuance to the market. If the Model Y was available, the Model 3 would be selling in lower numbers. People just prefer the SUV; all sedan sales are down besides Tesla. The Model 3's success could easily be the same as the Prius' back in 2008, that of there simply not being another option.

 

Yes, I forgot to put that in my post #115. The adage is that just because you DO purchase way less than what you can afford, doesn't mean that you always vote that way with your transportation dollars. If anything, it says that be cheaper purchase is a stopgap to what you really want. This will prove itself true if/when Toyota GM finally get around to manufacturing pickup truck hybrids & then a full sized full-on EV pickup & /or SUVtakes away their lunch as well.
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Fair enough, #3 and 4 are a surprise to me. #1 & 5 aren't, there's a fair number of people who can afford to drive anything but just wanted to buy some greenwashing and now it's time to trade up.

In the boolean sense... you are correct. But if the quantity of those choosing electric remains so low compared to those choosing fossil power is ever going to mean anything, then price still matters very, very much.

 

Currently, EVs are basically production limited, not demand.
GM is selling every Bolt they are making. They are ramping up, but slowly.
Tesla is expanding as fast as they possibly can. They could make lower priced versions, but would not be able to produce any more units than they currently are. In addition, doing so would lower the odds of them being in business long.

The public is starting to see all the advantages EVs provide, and are adopting the technology as quickly as manufacturers build them.
You can't go from 0% to 100% overnight, but EVs are growing rapidly and yes, at some point price will be an issue. But by the time that happens, EVs will cost less to produce than ICE vehicles.

 

The Kona EV just announced price just under $36.5k.