While waiting for the formal announcement and specs, thought it would be fun to start guessing at what might be in store.
My theory.... - 200-250 kW - Will cost more, for every vehicle (no free Supercharging). Old vehicles won't be grandfathered into the V3 stations. - Model 3's may get a slight boost in power (maybe 150-160kW?) but will be warned that this may damage your battery if done a lot - redesigned S's and X's will fully be able to use it (basing this on the timing as well as rumors of redesigned packs for those vehicles) (also thinking we may see 120kWh packs for those soon, if not higher) - Model Y may get some of the full capability but not all
Based on comments by both JB and Elon, I highly doubt that (not counting the Megachargers for Semi's). They have said that anything much above where they are currently at will fry Lithium batteries. We would need to see some huge battery breakthroughs to get anywhere close to 350 IMO.
FWIW, V3 could have elements other than just power increases. We could see some automagic type plugs.
#1 Old vehicles (S & X) won't do more than 110kW's anyway - just because that's the limits of their thermal management anyway #2 Older 3's capabilities are capped (according to pro hackers) in the 120's too. #3 Newer build-out would mean either waiting until existing build-out is nearing completion, or it gets slowed. to date - existing Supercharge locations number in the 5 figures. If there are 10 stalls average, that puts the total # of chargers in the 6 figures, & this has taken a half decade. That'd mean if ever - a new format, based on completing the existing infrastructure is way way way out there. Besides ... if you drive between 3 to 4 hours on the open road, do the majority (or most) really need to get back on the road in under 45 minutes?
Definitely agree with you. The current charging rate is just about right for our ratio of driving to break time.
I agree with you. There has been a false equivalency to compare ICEV's to BEV's - "There are no Superchargers along the route I always use and I don't want to go a different way." and "I can gas up my car, use the facilities, and get the kids a hot dog in under 5 minutes. You can't do that in an all electric vehicle!" No you can't, at this time, or would I want to spend my life that way. BEV's are a paradigm shift from ICEV's. It will require a new way of living, thinking, and driving. This disruption of long held habits, expectations, and acceptations will cause considerable angst to conservative traditionalists. These traditionalists will either have to adapt or they will become extinct through evolution. The FUTURE is here. Just got a text from Tesla, "Congrats! We expect your Tesla to be ready between 12/20-12/31, before the federal tax credit ends. Please be available during this time frame to ensure on-time delivery." For me, the FUTURE is here.
will people change first, or batteries and chargers? barring a crisis, i think tech changes faster than humans
Perhaps you might read the Q3 2018 quarterly financial report? 0001564590-18-026353 | 10-Q | Tesla, Inc. I did and they are making a profit large enough to pay down debt and continue making capital improvements. Start with facts and data and we'll have something useful to discuss. Better still, cite your source ... I want to know who is spreading rectal financial reports about Tesla. The reason is we might be able to submit a complaint to the SEC. Bob Wilson
I'm OK with that. In my case, I pulled part of my 401k out this summer and bought TSLA stock. Once the purchase settled, I sold 28% and diversified into gold, KL, a 72% TSLA to 28% gold ratio. Since the first of November, both have seen a market price increase of 25%. Not bad for six weeks. My plan is to offer 14% TSLA for $420/share and convert that to gold when/if it sells. This will give a 57% TSLA to 43% gold ratio. I won't make any further changes until the Q1 2019 production and financials are released. In February 2019 after the Q1 financials come out, I'll pull another 401k tranche and make a new plan. You'll notice I put my money where my mouth is. Bob Wilson
i'm thinking autonomous cars will be here before 5 minute charging. jump out of one and hop into another with a full charge
Something new: Tesla Expands U.S. Store Network By 10% In Just One Week Tesla released a note that this week it’s opening 11 new stores in the U.S.! As we check the list – there are some 124 stores/galleries available, which means that the latest move increases the number by more or less 10%. No appointment needed and you can test drive the Tesla (we believe a Model 3 too, although there was no confirmation). . . . Shocking! Tesla continues to expand their sales outlets. Bob Wilson
Basically right on the first one. Wrong on the second, unclear about the second part of this statement. Was way wrong on which vehicles would get the biggest boost. This points to an even likelier S and X refresh within the next couple months IMO.
