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Featured Toyota is planning to invest more in fcv and expand production

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by austingreen, Jul 30, 2018.

  1. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-toyota-hydrogen/toyota-plans-to-expand-production-shrink-cost-of-hydrogen-fuel-cell-vehicles-idUSKBN1KG

    Key figures -
    Perhaps toyota can do these 30K fcv/year 5 years from now (factory should be ready in about 2 years). Other sources have said the hydrogen tanks cost $5K/vehicle and maybe they can get them down to $2K/vehicle. This says fuel cell stack is $11K and they can get it down to $8K, which would be $10K for fuel cell stack plus hydrogen tanks. Scaling epa from japan distance they are hoping to increase range from 312 miles to 470 miles. Toyota has sold just under 6000 fcv so far if we don't include fork lifts only road going vehicles (cars, trucks, and busses).

    For comparison tesla says the 310 mile, 80.5 kwh battery pack in the long range model 3 costs less than $200/kwh, and DOE and other analyst say they should be able to bring it down to $100/kwh by 2025. That makes today's pack cost around $15,000 with costs sliding down to $8000 or $2K bellow what the stack plus hydrogen tanks in the mirai will cost if toyota can actually pull of volume production. The model 3 also weighs less, while accelerating and handling better. Tesla's government subsidies will end in 2020 in the US though while the mirai will likely continue to get high subsidies in the US and Japan, making it look like a no brainer if fuel situation can be resolved in the next 5 years that toyota can sell the 30K vehicles/per.

    Now lets look out to that 2025 timeframe. If a 35 kwh battery pack costs $3.5K and a ice like 2L dynamic force for the 2019 corrola hactchback + simple hybrid system costs $6K (mg2 and its connection is not counted in cost as its part of a bev or fcv), then toyota should be able to produce a 100 mile on battery phev for about the same price as a similar sized fcv. Quick charging hardware costs extra, but will likely be less expensive than 10,000 psi fueling hardware. In the US, Europe, and China, I can't see many picking a fcv over this phev. If you can make hydrogen, you can use it plus CO2 in the air to make methanol, and fueling would likely be cheaper than 10,000 psi hydrogen unsubsidized. In only 7 short years we should be able to see how toyota's experiment is going.
     
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  2. 4est

    4est Active Member

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    Wasted money
     
  3. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    whatever. maybe it works for them in japan, and they get american tax dollars to fund it.
     
  4. 3PriusMike

    3PriusMike Prius owner since 2000, Tesla M3 2018

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    The problem is that the cost per mile for H2 will always be much higher than for an EV. For sure this is true if you use electricity to make H2 via electrolysis. Other methods might be better but cost large amounts to install infrastructure. By comparison, almost anyone can put an EV charger at their homes, work, shopping centers etc.
    We don't "need" filling stations for EVs most of the time. So most can go away.

    Picked up my Model 3 a couple of days ago. I will now need to carefully plan the two gas fillups for my PIP every year since it will now get driven less and less. The Model 3 is almost as efficient as the PIP on my short commute --- Just two days of data....but it is ~180 whr/mile compare to ~160 whr/mile in the PIP.

    Mike
     
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  5. El Dobro

    El Dobro A Member

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    So buying an FCV allows me to travel to the "gas" station for fill-ups again. Um, no thanks.
     
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  6. markabele

    markabele owner of PiP, then Leaf, then Model 3

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    Yep, I agree. Very best part of driving electric is never having to go to those gas stations. I always forget how dirty they are (even the cleaner ones) when I haven't gone in a while.
     
  7. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    And pay 3-5x as much as charging . . . approaching the cost per mile of a gas car. . . . and wait for the hydrogen truck to arrive.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  8. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    I don't know if it flies in USA, but EU is different story. They tax the bejesus out of gaso/diesel and historically do give breaks to alternate fuels, so there is more diversity of approach. USA we want to pick winners and losers and we have cheap elec and gaso.
     
  9. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Using propane or CNG allowed the bypassing of US road taxes that are tacked onto gas and diesel. I expect it is the same for hydrogen in California.

    Parts of Europe tax petrol and diesel at different rates. Diesels are popular because of the better fuel economy with the high taxes on all fuels, and then some regions tax diesel less. Combined with lax emission regulations, this has lead to their current pollution issues.
     
  10. padroo

    padroo Senior Member

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    Yea but you will still need to go to the gas station for lottery tickets and cigarettes. :)

    Diesel is taxed higher than gasoline in the US, if it wasn't there would be more diesel cars on the road.
     
  11. markabele

    markabele owner of PiP, then Leaf, then Model 3

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    haha, cigarettes...people still do that?
     
  12. El Dobro

    El Dobro A Member

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    And in NJ, we also get to wait for the gas jockey to stroll over after he's done with his cigarette and texting.
     
  13. El Dobro

    El Dobro A Member

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    And if the hydrogen truck doesn't show, I'll just drive to the next hydrogen, oh wait, hmmm.....
     
  14. Kenrico

    Kenrico Member

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    I heard on a youtube video , that Japan is going full blown Hydrogen . They want to transform now not decades away . Stations cars trucks the works.

    As stated above it does not 'eliminate' the gas station ..but it will eliminate the dependence on crude oil as they can self produce hydrogen .

    The only other real plus was the FC density compared to lithium & that said fillup was 3 mins not an half hour plus with super charger .

    I have a plugin and it is not often that I charge anyplace but home. There is almost always another car charging in a free mall style charger or it is broken/vandelized ..and the pay stuff is expensive . My friend has a Model S and we have gone computer component shopping in Tustin, CA about 110 miles one way a few times..we always have to stop once for half hour and then usually he wants to top off when returning so another half hour ..plus the wait line for Super Charger . It works but that trip would cost me just over 4 gals of gas .

    Will be interesting to see how it plays out ..it is a worthy endeavor .

    Kenny
     
  15. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    It was once going to be self produced in Japan with nuclear power, but now it is just shifting petroleum as the sole source for car fuel to other fossil fuels. Australian brown coal is now one source Japan is using for hydrogen.

    If we really wanted to, we can make methane, diesel, methanol, and gasoline from CO2, water, and electricity.
    The SAE standard that makes filling up 5kg of hydrogen possible in 3 minutes, allows for the fill to take as long as 15 minutes. Moving compressed gases around will never be as quick an easy as pumping a liquid, and I think hydrogen proponents are setting the public up for disappointment by portraying it as such.

    Yeah, 15 min is still quicker than DC fast charging, but I'm free to do other stuff while waiting for a charge vs. babysitting a fuel pump.
    That said, hydrogen might be a solution for Japan. Among the details in the Prime release threads, is the state of Japan's electric supply. For half the residences there, a Prime will take twice as long to charge at home as it does in the US and elsewhere, and Level 2 isn't an option. So long range BEVs would require infrastructure for charging away from home, or a major investment in upgrading grid.

    The issue I and others have with Toyota over this is in their pushing hydrogen in other markets where it wouldn't be a good solution. The required hydrogen infrastructure for the US will cost way much more than it does for Japan, and many households here have the means of charging a long range BEV. On top of that, Toyota and other car companies supporting hydrogen took the stance that they are car companies, not energy companies, and only put their own funds into hydrogen infrastructure as a last recourse. They wanted tax dollars to pay for it all.[/QUOTE]
     
  16. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    Ok - but you DO realize how many tens of thousands of people there are, working in the fossil fuel industry. The very LEAST obscenely expensive way to reform the cars' fuel is to reform it from non-renewables - if this sucker ever takes off, think of all the jobs that it will save from going away !!
    Go hydrogen!

    .
     
  17. Ashlem

    Ashlem Senior Member

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    I wonder how Toyota plans to make hydrogen fuel cheaper than gas or electricity. It's cheaper if they use natural gas, but you're stuck using fossil fuels and that completely negates the hydrogen "green" status.

    Renewable avoids that via electrolysis. But it's very energy intensive, with the amount of electricity needed to drive the hydrogen car 1 mile, you could have driven a plug-in car about 4 miles if that electricity was instead put into a car battery.

    Bottom line is that hydrogen fuel will likely always cost more, unless Toyota discovers some new laws of physics, and is completely dependent on hydrogen stations being available. I can't buy a Mirai in the Midwest, and I can't fuel it up either if I smuggled one there.

    But I can charge a plug-in inside my garage. Which is now also powered by solar panels. Sure, it's slow, but I'm not driving my Volt around either when I'm at home doing other things.

    Hydrogen-vs-EV.png