Thanks for using the word 'skeptic' instead of 'denier.' I won't tell anybody. Speaking of skepticism, I was scanning the headlines this morning and saw this on CNN.... https://money.cnn.com/2018/07/19/technology/business/tesla-downgrade/index.html The headline on CNN Mobile was: Tesla is finally making enough cars. It just can't sell them. (It's a little softer on the web version of the story....) OUCH.... Talk about friendly fire! Yes. I checked. It really WAS CNN and not Fox.
24% of Tesla Model 3 orders have been canceled, analyst says Cancellations for Model 3 orders have picked up in recent weeks. Refunds now outpace deposits for Tesla's new mass-market electric car, according to Needham & Co. analyst Rajvindra Gill. . . . So 25% of 400,000 would leave 300,000 orders. Take away the 40,000 Model 3 manufactured, we're looking at 260,000 orders remaining. Oh the horror! Bob Wilson
Hope you're right. VERY curious article in terms of source, title, and timing. The one good thing about having [insert notional number here] electric cars on the road today is that the game is well and truly afoot!!! Gonna be awfully hard to squeeze that genie back into the bottle!!!
Third party analyst vs statement from Tesla? I’ll take the statement from Tesla. That said, a 75% retention rate, considering the delays and all the FUD flying around, is pretty good. At the end of June Tesla had about 420,000 reservations Tesla Q2 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries | Tesla, Inc. Soon after that, they stopped taking new reservations. The only take orders now, which this analyst has no way to track. Heck, I don’t believe they have a way to track new reservations while reservations were being accepted. But even if we assume they are correct, a backlog of 315,000 is a nice problem to have. Hehe, then there is this gem: Sounds like he has a short position and is not basing this on reality. If Tesla can average 4000 Model 3s a week in the last six months of the year, that is 100,000 Model 3s in just the final 6 months. That would put the year at about 130,000. As for the requirement to ship 27% more in the second half of the year? Well no kidding. That is exactly what companies do when they are ramping up production!
Not worth it since data and research can easily be manipulated to fit an agenda, no matter the angle you're arguing, especially on a topic as complex as this one. I trust no one who claims the science is settled. I only posted the previous comment here because of the browbeating/guilt-tripping being engaged, which is common among alarmism.
I trust no one who says the science isn't settled. For example, do you think that smoking is a carcinogen or not? Alarmism is justified as a counter to complacency and denial.
My guess that model 3 deliveries would hit 100K by the end of September appears to be pretty close to accurate. My SIL is going to take delivery of his model 3 next Tuesday. His VIN is close to 71xxx. So delivering 30K cars in the next 6 weeks appears doable. He waited a total of 6 weeks from placing order to delivery. Long wait lines appear to be over for current production, at least for the time being.
