Oil Prices vs MPG

if it didn't happen under clinton or obama, it likely will never happen.

 

Since I've gone plug-in hybrid, I don't even follow the price of gasoline.

Bob Wilson

 

The major car companies in the US want some type of tax on fuel to keep it from being too low. They are tired of making efficient cars, and having to sell them at a discount in order to satisfy CAFE. CAFE has helped raise fuel efficiency, but it puts none of the burden on the consumer.

 

i'm 63. the market doesn't work to our personal desire, it works to the desire of the entire populace. it will ever go up and down.
when down, peoples true character comes out. when up, they begrudgingly change their ways.
it will never stay up or down, markets fluctuate.

 

Doesn't bother me. I only buy gas about every 6 weeks. And here in LA County, nobody, but nobody will ever give up their giant SUV or their gas-guzzling pickup trucks. Even if gas was 10 bucks a gallon.

 

Generally speaking, people drive what they can afford to drive.
Yeah.....there was a time when the eco-chic used to roll a Prius as a 'me too' car but they've now largely traded up to BEVs, and solar has reached a point of cost efficiency where power co-ops are starting to plant solar farms and pretty soon the industry will not have to rely on government kickbacks.

The fossil fuel subsidies....ah....."debate" is probably best fought out in the political sub-forum but suffice it to say that even in 2018 if our access to energy were threatened, then direct military action would not be off the table.
In fact.....Prius drivers would join the cacophony of screams that swift action be taken immediately.

History informs us that energy security is worth starting wars over.
Current events inform us that it's worth terra-forming "islands" and flouting UN mandates over.....

As far as using oil to make gas for people to drive crazy long distances just to go to work to pay for their cars and gas?
Markets are already responding, which is WHY Priuses are "yesterday's" eco-chic car.

 

You can say the price of gas doesn't bother you because you drive a Prime or full EV but you are still paying for it because everything you buy is delivered by fossil fuels, very few exceptions. Lets face it, we are stuck in a mouse wheel.

 

i actually see many, and know a few who drive what they cannot afford to drive, and they are usually very low mpg vehicles.

 

the bad guys currently have more energy than the good guys. see: russia, iran/iraq, mexico, the list is as long as your arm.

 

I'm not so sure about the 'good guys' versus 'bad guys' angle, and I'll leave that aside for the moment.


I'm not sure that I would characterize fossil fuel use reduction as being 'stagnant' but rather I'm seeing a lot of frenetic activity in renewable type stuff. IIRC the military is accepting the cost penalty and using a lot of bio-fuel and if you've ever been on any military base you'll see that they are rapidly adding wind and solar. Of course.....we've always been out on the tip of the spear in nuclear.....

Gasoline and diesel are efficient as heck.
THAT's why it is such an uphill battle to supplant them with electric, etc....

One hears lots of conspiracy theories about how big earl is trying to kill off electric cars, but that's mostly balloon juice, at least in 2018......IMHO.
Oil exploration is going to be just as relevant when the last of the automotive gasoline pumps are disconnected and discarded because we still have an electric grid to power (Natgas) planes to fly (Kerosene) and with a few exceptions ships and trains are still mostly diesel.
I'm just guessing here because I'm a twidget and not a petroleum engineer, but I'm guessing that it's not a heavy lift for oil refineries to switch from gasoline (summer or winter) to another flavor.

I can buy a brand new gasoline clown car, with all of the dot.DOT safety gear....and A/C for about $15,000.
If and when they start making electric cars with real-world range figures for about the same money.....and someday they WILL be able to, then the switch from hybrid to PHEV to BEV will accelerate dramatically.

AS IT IS NOW.....I checked last Friday.
I can buy a brand-new Volt for less than $30,000, which will put the real-world take-home price at < $25,000 after the tax kickbacks. That same car maker that everybody loves to hate has a BEV that has 2/3 of a Tesla's range for roughly 2/3s of a Tesla's price....and you can get one right NOW.

If you believe the fanboys, Tesla will be cranking out the $35,000 version of the 3 so fast that you'll be seeing them in every other driveway.

Change is constant.....and I'd say change for renewable is happening faster than you might appreciate.

 

CAFE doesn't influence the pricing model. It influences the incentives a manufacturer offers to dealers or the public on certain models.

For the past few years, Ford has sold over 700k F series trucks per year. Some engine options on the F150 are among the most efficient available, and they do sell, but they still aren't efficient enough for the truck sales to drag their CAFE value down enough to invoke fines. Selling their efficient cars at a loss can be cheaper than paying those fines. These aren't just small cars getting such discounts, but also included the Fusion; saw 2018 Fusion hybrid listing in January that was $9000 below MSRP.

GM is in the same boat as Ford in regards to trucks, and had 20% off MSRP sales multiple times last year for their cars. Now the public has also shifted to SUVs and crossovers, so it is hard to untangle the how much effect each variable has on the incentives these companies offer. Ford and GM had among the lowest CAFE figures for their light truck fleet back in 2016.
Corporate Average Fuel Economy: How Automakers Rank | News | Cars.com

 

Four door trucks and SUV's are the new family sedans. Most Americans don't want small vehicles it's obvious.

 

That describes about 80% of the people I know, and worked with. Their whole life is "material things." $450 car payments on a vehicle that gets 10 mpg--payments for 6 years; And buying homes with adjustable mortgages they cant afford.
Sorry, that's off topic.

Believe me, I am very grateful and thankful that I can afford a new Prius, and do my tiny miniscule part to conserve energy and save some fuel. I count my blessings daily! I wish Americans could/would bike more and walk more, and use trains more. No easy answers to all this stuff, I just try my best to control what little things I am able to control. World economics, and global politics... all that is way above my humble pay grade and intelligence level.

 

With our first Prius, the annual gas savings were one car payment. These savings continued after the car was paid off.

With our plug-in hybrids, the savings are about three car payments. The cost per EV mile is half that of gas and we get free, public charging.

Bob Wilson

 

I think this is a spot-on statement, and it does generally describe the consumer behavior.

When someone wants to buy a product, they necessarily weight the satisfaction from the product against its costs. If they see that the satisfaction outweighs the costs, they see it as a good bargain; when it doesn't, the product isn't seen as worth its cost. In terms of a car purchase, it means that the person should see the car as worth its original price + maintenance costs + repair costs + fuel costs - resale value (when applicable).

Now, when the fuel costs go down, then the total car cost goes down - and it goes down more significantly for lower-MPG vehicles, than for higher-MPG vehicles. Hence lower-MPG vehicles experience a better worth/cost ratio growth than higher-MPH vehicles, hence the probability of the decision to buy a lower-MPG vehicle increases more - and more lower-MPG vehicles are bought. And when the fuel costs go down, the reverse occurs.

Personally, I love hybrid cars - but would I love them as much if the fuel costs were significantly lower? I don't think so. With nearly $3 per gallon, fuel costs become a significant part of the total car ownership cost, and buying a hybrid significantly reduces that cost. But what if gasoline costed, say, $0.1 per gallon? I would mostly consider 4WD SUVs then, in particular RAV4 which is my dream car. In the current situation, however, I can't justify buying an SUV, as even such economical SUVs as Crosstrek Hybrid and RAV4 Hybrid still make a huge difference in the total cost of ownership throughout a decade of driving, compared to something like the Prius.

If my net income wasn't $2,100 monthly, but, say, $3,100 monthly instead, then I would seriously look into getting an SUV - because I would be able to easily afford the fuel costs of compact SUVs such as the Crosstrek, the RAV4 or even the Rogue. Many American families have household income far above these numbers, so they definitely can mostly ignore the MPG ratings and instead simply buy what they like driving the most.

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I'd say that the goal of increasing average MPG on the road is best achieved by providing strong financial incentives for people to buy high-MPG vehicles. The current governmental tax rebates on plug-in vehicles are hardly enough to sway many buyers. On the other hand, if, say, people buying 40+ MPG cars also had some of their fuel expenses covered by the state (say, 3 gallons daily for free), then it could have a strong impact - people generally jump on "free stuff" when they see it. The Prius wouldn't have a reputation of a weird car driven by hippies, but that of a solid vehicle for mature adults.

Otherwise, something like the 2008-crisis is needed for people's mind to change noticeably. When it is hard to afford a gas guzzler and buying an economical vehicle becomes a necessity, then people simply don't have any other choice. When, however, one can afford a car with any MPG, then the high MPG stops being a major selling point in their eyes.

And few people buy cars just to make an ideological point. You will see some people who always "buy American" to support the US economy, or those who buy hybrids because they want to save the planet - but the majority of people simply buy cars they like for the money, and appealing to their ideological consciousness isn't a great marketing idea.

 

Yes.