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Featured Volvo predicts optimum battery size

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by bwilson4web, Jun 27, 2018.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Source: AD #2383 – Volvo Predicts Shorter Range EVs, Pratt & Miller Develops Extreme Suspension, Next-Gen Malibu Details – Autoline Daily

    VOLVO PREDICTS SHORTER RANGE EVs

    Volvo predicts that we’re soon going to see electric cars with shorter driving ranges, not longer ones. Volvo’s head of R&D, Henrik Green, says people have range anxiety today because there are not enough public fast-charging stations. That’s why they want EVs with longer range. He says once fast-charging stations become common, car buyers will wonder why they’re spending so much money on bigger batteries and lugging all that extra weight around all the time. He says a 50 kilowatt-hour battery will be ideal. That would provide around 200 miles of range. Henrik Green says EV owners do 95% of their charging at home so they start out every morning with their maximum range available.

    Strangely I can agree with this logic if not the values:
    • 200 mi / 3.5 mi / kWh ~= 57 kWh ## usable
    • 57 kWh / 90% ~= 64 kWh ## rated with 10% margin on the high and low side
    • 200 mi / 75 mph ~= 2:40 hh:mm ## first leg driving, need a break
    Subsequent legs assuming perfect fast charger location:
    • (57 kWh * 80%) / 0.333 hr ~= 135 kW ## fast charge to 80% in 20 minutes
    • 45.6 kWh * 3.5 mi / kWh ~= 160 miles ## second charge range
    • 160 mi / 75 mi / hr ~= 2:10 hh:mm ## driving duration
    Ideal placement would be ~20 miles apart (i.e., ~ 8 charging options per segment) with communications of active stations and the SOC of any connected cars. There should also be 'n + 1' parking stations and CCS connectors so cars waiting for a charge can be connected but only marginal power (enough for cooling, cabin, battery, and motors) until the current fast charging cars are done. The active charging car leaves and the waiting car gets the full 135 kW.

    Using Huntsville electrical rates, $0.10/kWh, subsequent charges would cost ~$4.60 per 80% charge, ~45.6 kWh. Call it roughly $2.50 / hour, not too shabby to get 75 miles.

    The Volvo estimate looks feasible.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #1 bwilson4web, Jun 27, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2018
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  2. orenji

    orenji Senior Member

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  3. Starship16

    Starship16 Senior Member

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    I see a few charging stations at Walmart. And a few at one of the shopping malls. I've always wondered if they will soon start charging a fee for that electricity? Swipe your credit card, and get an hour's worth of juice? How can all these upcoming charging stations be free? Does Tesla and Volvo pay for their installation, any maintenance, etc? Did Walmart pay for them? Maybe our gas tax money is funding them? Just curious.

    I still don't think full electric vehicles (BEV) will catch on in a huge way. At least not for many years. First, they need to make a model that is affordable for everyone. The average Joe or Jane is not going to shell out $50K to 100K for a Tesla... Do you really think the Model 3 will be 35K? They will accessorize them to death. And are all these BEV's going to add strain to an already strained power grid? We have rolling blackouts in LA. :LOL: Just some thoughts during the usual insomnia.
     
  4. Starship16

    Starship16 Senior Member

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    And what about all the millions of people whom live in apartment buildings? I've never seen plug-in stations at any apartment complexes. But I might be looking in the wrong part of town. (I'm not near the swanky buildings.) In the future, more employers should be required to add charging stations to their employee parking lots. And then watch as all the BEV drivers fight over the 5 plugs.

    Fast forward 50 years, and all the electric vehicles will have wireless recharging! ;) No more plugging in? I'll leave that up to you engineers. Beam me up, Scotty....
     
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  5. orenji

    orenji Senior Member

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    VW Dieselgate scandal is paying for all the new non-Tesla chargers. This was their fine/punishment.
     
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  6. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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  7. orenji

    orenji Senior Member

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    ICE vehicles as stand alone or Hybrid will still be around for a long time. Old habits are hard to change.
     
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  8. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I’m not doubting that ICE will remain dominate as much as their offering efficient cars is their first defense. They have not changed their stripes, yet. That will take at least a couple of decades.

    Oh well, we got ours.

    Bob Wilson
     
  9. Starship16

    Starship16 Senior Member

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    I really like the Hybrid. I would not be comfortable having to rely *completely* on an all-electric vehicle. And the cars like the Prius are almost pollution free? Pretty darn close. So I really don't mind buying some gas.

    Now, if they ever design a plug-in Prime Prius that can go 200-300 miles on a charge, PLUS have the ICE to fall back on, I'd feel much more encouraged to get one. And there would have to be a LOT more charging stations around. Not everybody can afford a house, especially here in crazy insane CA.
     
  10. orenji

    orenji Senior Member

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    Maybe Tesla will come out with an RV, they are already experimenting with a tent! :)
     
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  11. Starship16

    Starship16 Senior Member

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    I wish Tesla the best. The technology is very interesting. I hope they come out with all kinds of various electric vehicles.... affordable vehicles.

    A few months ago, I talked to a new Tesla owner at the beach, he was sitting there in his big beautiful Model X. A 2017? And it had a For Sale sign in the back window. He told me he just can't deal any longer with all the "'electrical problems." He said he paid close to 100K for it, and he's really angry. It sure was a beautiful vehicle! (I told him my plain little Prius has been trouble free... He was not amused. :ROFLMAO:)

    Take care, gentlemen. I'm going back to the poor man's forum. Tesla is WAY over my pay grade.
     
    #11 Starship16, Jun 27, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2018
  12. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Tesla is a 'clue by four' smacking some sense into the other car companies.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  13. Leadfoot J. McCoalroller

    Leadfoot J. McCoalroller Senior Member

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    I'm curious about the context on this one (couldn't get video to play)

    Volvo sells in many markets, and they are quite different from each other. "Good range" in Europe is not the same as "good range" in the USA.
     
  14. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    My analysis is based on typical cross-country I've followed for years:
    • ~3 hours first leg - take a pee, stretch, and coffee break
    • ~2 hours for each subsequent leg - take a pee, stretch, and coffee break
    • typically good for 10-12 hours when it is time for a meal
    • ~16-18 hours in ~2 hour segments until arrive or get a room
    • avoid driving 1 AM until dawn and breakfast
    When I did my version of the Volvo numbers, it came in 'horse shoes' close. I agree that in the EU the generally slower speeds would support a 50 kWh battery. In the USA, adding ~20% capacity, 60-65 kWh total, would match my driving practice. The big takeaway is how much power, 135 kW, would be needed in the fast charger and vehicle battery controller design.

    Bob Wilson
     
  15. GasperG

    GasperG Senior Member

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    50 kWh is a number Volvo came up today with current Technology, I wouldn't be surprised if they - in something like 5 years - come up with their new ideal battery size of something like 80 kWh.

    From where do you conclude that Europe has slower speeds? Speed limit on the highway is generally 130 kmh (81 mph) all over Europe, there are some exceptions (Norway) and actual speed may depend on traffic, but driving 160 kmh on a 130 speed limit is not so uncommon nor is the fine that big.
     
  16. telmo744

    telmo744 HSD fanatic

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    I agree with GasperG, in Europe we have higher speeds instead, although less average commuting distances.
     
  17. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Sorry! It comes from tall tales read over decades:
    • If the posted speed limit is too low, German drivers will follow it and vote out the politicians in next election.
    • Italy has very fast cars but impossible city traffic resembling a free-for-all.
    • Many EU roads follow ancient ox cart routes with too many twists and turns for high speed.
    • The UK is trying to add enough cameras to make a movie called 'a day in everyone's life.'
    • The French are somewhat traffic casual with a love-hate of the gendarmes.
    Something along the lines of:
    [​IMG]
    (Meant in good fun.)

    I suspect EU and USA speeds are more alike because in the USA we typically exceed the speed limit unless in an area where the local government is funded by traffic tickets. Just stay with the 'herd' and it usually works OK. One USA driving habit, as the number of lanes increase, the painted lane markers become invisible to the typical USA driver. Beyond three lanes, they might as well save the paint.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #17 bwilson4web, Jun 27, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2018
  18. GasperG

    GasperG Senior Member

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    Just for kicks, try Google maps, I would think they use real world data from android phones, from Munich to Berlin just a little under 5 h and 550 km, Venice to Rome similar, how about from LA to SF? I tried some destinations and I can only conclude that there is no meaningful long distance travel speed diference between US and EU.
     
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  19. fotomoto

    fotomoto Senior Member

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    Yes but not a long break; 5 minutes (or less) for bio needs works for me. Most of our long highway travels are time critical (destination is the goal not the trip). If trip is longer, then a longer break may occur but no guarantee.

    This just might work but would be very, very expensive to cover the USA in 20 mile increments on major arteries with less frequency on byways (alternate routes). Will each have a restroom? Food? Every town no matter how small that has a gas station would need a large multi-slot fast charge facility. This would be a major infrastructure rollout that would need complete agreement, public and private, from the fed level down. GLWT

    Interesting idea..... but I think it's a show-stopper concept for folks on the fence (or especially the folks who won't even climb on the fence to take a look-see). This is something proponents don't typically address: the precept that the charge stall is always empty so no waiting is ever involved. Even modern large fueling stations on interstates that can handle 100's of vehicles per hour can have lines at peak travel times (Fri and Sun evenings). Imagine the backlog when quick means 30 minutes for partial charges and that's assuming EVERY vehicle has superfast charge capability and there's never the occasional slow-poke needing 2+ hours.

    After price and performance are met, the only way I see for mass EV adoption to work is real quick fill capability that matches liquid fuel. Currently (pun intended) that means huge mega-watt stations and yet to be released solid state batteries. Toyota also thinks fuel cells might be the answer.

    Agreed. Denmark is not Texas and Texas is not Denmark.
     
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  20. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Truck stops along Interstates works for me.

    Bob Wilson