Tesla delivery numbers for Q2/18 are going to be lower than expected. This is not because of problems in production, it is because Elon wants to extend the 200K threshold sales for maximum federal tax credit to December 31, 2018. Consequently, Tesla is preparing to unleash about 22K sales per month starting on July 1, the beginning of Q3/18. Read the story here.
Depends how you look at it. If Tesla delivered their 200,000th car the 4th week of June, the full rebates would end October 1st. If they deliver that 200,000th car in July all cars delivered until Jan 1st get the full credit. So the extra full credits will be however many cars they can deliver in the US in the 4th quarter. I would guess that is around 100,000 cars.
The fundamentals just aren't there. They are relying on federal credits, investor funding (speculation) and prepayments to fund current production. There is no cash flow without these inputs. The company will eventually collapse, because there is virtually no way they can achieve self sustaining profitability. No comment on the technology, the sales and service infrastructure, or the quality and reliability of the cars, which are also potential issues.
There are always naysayers for anyone/anything. Jim Chanos: Tesla investors are 'paying money to lose money' Tesla Looked Like the Future. Now Some Ask if It Has One. - The New York Times There are also leaks of information that indicate issues to cause concerns. Elon Musk says Model 3 production still needs 'radical improvements' to meet aggressive targets (TSLA) Tesla stock falls after Bernstein issues cautious note on services margins, automotive gross margins - MarketWatch Tesla factory becomes literal dumpster fire after recycling machinery goes up in flames Musk/Tesla is definitely under the magnifying glass these days.
The two arguments above are classic "short seller" arguments. Jim Chanos is an admitted short seller and will do everything including innuendo, misrepresentation, false narratives to spread FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) to destroy companies. He makes billions doing this. The oil industry and legacy automakers are also in on the game. The last I heard, Tesla was the most shorted (investors betting against its success) stock on the NYSE. The "shorts" will lose billions of dollars when Tesla proves them wrong, but they are not going down without a fight no matter how outrageously false their claims. The "analysts" posted above have very poor historical track records in predicting markets and company success. "Fundamentals" are only one of many factors that predict viability. For example, Amazon has very poor "fundamentals" but it is the fourth most valuable company..............in the world! Tesla is a diversified company that includes Tesla Motors, the Boring Company, Solar City, and the Gigafactory. In addition, Elon owns Space X which is a privately held company. Space X is a cash cow and worth billions and can be a source of cash flow for $TSLA if need be. Space X has been launching "Starband" low orbit communications satellites. Speculation is that Elon intends to disrupt established communications and satellite Internet companies with his competing brand, just as he is doing in personal transportation. I believe Elon when he says that $TSLA will record its first profit at the end of Q3/18. We'll see what excuse the naysayers above will have then (they'll think of something)
It's not about whether Tesla will succeed or survive. It's about the fundamentals of economics. I have experience in this realm. I was there, and involved when infospace.com, webvan.com, pets.com and a host of others disappeared overnight. Each and every one of those companies suffered from the same fundamental issues that Tesla faces. Tesla is a troubled company. And it is a drop in the bucket among auto manufacturers. We don't have long for the end of Q3/18.
Contrary to your first sentence, you are making it about Tesla's success and survival if you are comparing to some random companies that disappeared overnight for reasons other than "fundamentals." Despite your experience in this realm, I guarantee I have more education, experience and plain old longevity in Economics. "Fundamentals" is a black art that depends on personal subjective interpretation of esoteric economic data. It can be likened to voodoo economics. If Tesla should fail (I have no concern it will because of it's eccentric genius who leads the company) it will be for other reasons than "fundamentals." What other company, auto maker or otherwise, has had ~500K people stand in line overnight, some in the rain, or on the Internet to put down $1000 deposit for a product that they wouldn't receive for 2 years or more? Now that is an objective "fundamental." if you don't like $TSLA as a stock, don't buy it and stay on the sidelines. If you are "short" on $TSLA right now, that is a very risky and dangerous game. Come back in October after Tesla has released its Q3/18 financials and let's talk some more, when we know more.
Like Enron? LOL. I once worked with a firm that was gobbled up by Enron called NEPCO, which is now owned by Zurn. Enron and the other bubble-bust firms went down nearly overnight. My company was doing electrical design for Webvan.com. Lot's of money left on (under) the table overnight in that deal ... Good times! Just remember, "When EF Hutton talks, people listen." They were too big to fail, as well.
I look at Elon Musk as a modern day Henry Ford leading us out of the dark ages. Well it's electric, maybe Thomas Edison.
Henry Ford did not have the threat of major automotive powerhouses with unlimited funds to go up against. Tesla does. 2019 will be the start of car wars between Europeans and Japanese against Tesla.
I understand that TSLA is a religion to The Faithful and The Fanboys and that there is little point to posting the link to Tesla's latest Form 10-Q. SEC Filing | Tesla, Inc. Current assets $6.3 billion Current liabilities $8.6 billion Accumulated deficit $5.0 billion (This is where profitable companies would report Retained Earnings) cash flow from operations -$398 million Elon said Tesla will be cash flow and net income positive for Q3 and Q4 2018. We'll see. If so the record for profitable quarters in a row will be set at 2 and the total number of profitable quarters will (dare I say it?) climb exponentially to 4. (The exponent is 2.) All of this without a capital raise. I don't see how Deepak will be able to pull it off. Those who want Tesla to survive will have to dig deep and snap up this year's secondary (new shares and/or bonds). The first $5 billion covers prior losses. Anything raised beyond that can go toward future projects. My estimates for what they are worth: Model S & Model X production is capped at 100,000 units and sales are lower than that. (Elon's own words. Read or listen to the earnings calls.) Tesla can't get more than 5000 Model 3 out of their assembly line per week and aren't even close to that now. (Again, Elon's own words from earnings calls.) And probably still won't be close to it at the end of this December. Automotive demand will plummet when the FIT credit is cut and then eliminated. Reservations will evaporate. The number is commingled in Customer Deposits so without access to Tesla's accounting system there is no way to know how many paid reservations and deposits are on the books. Has cash been refunded and the reservation kept on the books? I believe Deepak & Elon can still pull off the 2018 secondary but it will be at a very high cost. I don't see them getting through 2019 without a trip to Bankruptcy Court and a reorg. If they were smart they would reorg as a religion with the charitable mission to provide EVs to The Masses below cost. TSLA is a bomb with a lit fuse. When it goes off the shock wave will run through half of the investing community much like the announcement of Trump's electoral victory ran through the Democrats.
That's why you (and I) don't have Deepak's (Tesla CFO) job. I know, you don't want his job and neither do I. Refreshment of the Model S is due out in the next few months. This will spur further growth in sales. New, inexpensive tent production lines will accommodate further growth. This is old information from months ago. Model 3 production will hit 5000 units per week in the next couple of weeks. This is the brilliant strategy with the tented model 3 production line. Additional production facilities are planned in Germany, China, and maybe India. Disagree. Elon wanted the Federal tax credit eliminated by Congress last year. Sales will expand with the production of the $35K base model 3 concurrently as the $7500 full tax credit is eliminated. Actually new reservations are exceeding any cancellations (and many of those cancellations are a result of purchasing a Model S/X). Demand remains strong and will grow as the Semi, Model Y, and Pickup are introduced. Are you accusing Elon of fraud? That is a serious charge and although that fits into the game plan of short sellers and FUDsters, tthose accusations have consequences. (I know, you aren't accusing anyone of anything, just asking a simple accusatory question) If your facts are faulty, then resort to sarcasm. FUD! intermingled with arrogant political rhetoric. When the "bomb" doesn't go off, there will be some billionaires who will lose billions.
