With a lower limit of magnitude 2.5, 112 out of 136 global earthquakes in last 24 hrs have happened right around there. It's a pretty jiggly place.
After a few hours above metric increased to 151 out of 172 global earthquakes. All this could very well be about a gentle repositioning. Much unwanted would be another '1924' when top of magma got below ground-water level there, and sploosh. An energetic display of getting on the wrong side of 'steam tables'. Kilauea in intervening decades has been more gentle in magma repositioning, several times. We've nothing saying this one will be more energetic. But dang, with so many current sensors, earthquakes are almost allowing tomography of rough edges of this magma.
For an imagined replay of 1924, now-evacuated areas are much too small and shelters are much too close.
Small earthquakes there increase; now 162/184. I wonder if their increase on south side of East Rift Zone means something. HVO and Civil Defense are not expressing excitement. Our null hypothesis of course is 'no big deal' just like post-1924 activity. Were I on scene I would look for a road granting 50 kilometers to north or west. Being a wimp as of course it must be said.
fortunately, no one would ever consider building too close to a volcano/earthquake line/mudslide/flood/tornado or fire prone areas.
Ground zero this time has so far been Leilani Estates and nearby. This is said to be among the least expensive housing anywhere in Hawaiian Islands. Govt could make home building illegal in some areas I guess... In the long run, all of west south west Hawaii (that island) will be repeatedly 'repaved'. So in the long run, none of that area is entirely suitable for residences. But we cannot predict when and where. Oh another Island will pop up also, to the southwest. Pele just has leaky plumbing. == Currently, earthquakes are down from a peak of ~250/24 hr to ~200/24 hr. Have not checked to see of more lava is coming out.
There are 8 lava release points in Leilani, not all currently active. Earthquakes are down to 159/24 hours. One might suspect that things are cooling off.
When I say "calm" in relation to Kilauea I mean there is less chance of a large explosive eruption such as happened there several times on millennial scale. Lava leakage continues in East Rift Zone (an even more frequent event) and has destroyed ~30 residences so far.
If the Hilina Slump lets loose, there won't be any rescue ships coming to help: "The Hilina Slump is a 5,000 cubic mile (20,000 kilometre³) section of the Big Island of Hawaii on the south flank of the Kilauea volcano. Between 1990 and 1993, Global Positioning System measurements showed a southward displacement of the south flank of Kilauea up to approximately 10 centimeters per year.[1] The slump has the potential of breaking away at a faster pace in the form of an underwater landslide. In Hawaii, landslides of this nature are called debris avalanches. If the entire Hilina Slump were to slide into the ocean at once, it could cause an earthquake in excess of a 9 in magnitude, and a megatsunami. Previous megatsunamis in Hawaii 110,000 years ago caused by similar geological phenomena may have created waves 1,600 feet (500 m) tall.[2]" Hilina Slump - Wikipedia See also: Last Catastrophic Landslide Protects Kilauea From Next -- ScienceDaily The first image here is a map of many previous landslides off the Hawaiian Islands GEOL205: Giant Landslides of the Hawaiian Islands: One of the Cape Verde islands did this 73,000 years ago. La Palma, in the Canary Islands, is also thought to be at risk.
Submarine landslides are very important remodelers, especially though tsunamis. Out of the (human) public eye and examined closely only in recent decades. Steep landforms are pretty much required. Hawaii checks that box mostly because of depth of sea floor there. Mtns are tall above sea level but much more so below.
Steam-driven ash flights moved things to code red a few days ago. 'Repaving' continues in Leilani and nearby. See video below for nope nope nope view into crater. Looks like a bunch of gold rings are being thrown in. But just not the right one... https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/multimedia_uploads/multimediaFile-1973.mp4
