Featured Model 3 has 310 mile range

where you gonna get that? not at home, that's for sure.

 

I'm not rich enough for a horse. Hell on my 4500 sq ft lot, the city said I couldn't even have a 2 car garage. I barely have enough time to exercise the dog, definitely would have to hire someone else to take care of the horse. I can't imagine what it would cost me to park downtown. Then their is the matter of the waste, its not the old days. I'd have to stop trafic and pick up those horse apples.

A BEV I can easily afford. It will probably cost me less over a decade than a pick up truck. I'll probably switch from wind to solar in 2019, and with a home equity loan, and the cities subsidies that will be a lot cheaper than fueling the prius ;-)

200 miles? I rarely drive that far, and if I do its often in someone else's vehicle. There look to be even enough quick chargers to make the trip to new orleans. Dallas and Houston, pretty easy. I do those trips so rarely I'll probably spend less time at on road chargers than I do now at gas stations, and that isn't much time at all.

Let's use the term plug in. The volt does spend most of its time as an electric vehicle, but it probably spends a lot of time driven as a hybrid. Comparing the Charge Patterns of the LEAF and Volt
Its moldy data based on the last generation, but the data gm used and realized with the current generation volt, drivers will probably put on as many electric miles as a leaf. My guess is the bulk of those hybrid miles (3,126 on the old 35 mile aer volt versus today's 53 aer model) where at higher speed so that is even a lower percent time than percent miles.

Most people should ride bikes instead of driving cars. Oh sorry, repeating the judgement of a bumper sticker I saw this evening. The fact is now in the US the top 20% by income or wealth households buy the bulk of new cars. If the country is going to change the buying habits of the nation to be less dependent on the least plentiful bulk fossil fuel - something that is probably important for national security and national economic health than many things the government wastes money on. For example California's high speed rail was originally supposed to cost $40B in 2008. Now in 2017 it is 7 years behind schedule and realistic estimates is it will cost at least $70B. Now some say this is an investment, but to compete with air fairs they are talking about charging only $0.20/mile, this is far bellow the operating costs of high speed rail systems in japan or France. Which means after tax payers put up the huge money to build, they will likely need to subsidize tickets every year.

Now consider this plug-in project. Federal and state incentives will probably hit around $15 billion, and we already have some fairly attractive cars in the market. Oh, and as a bonus it will probably save a lot more fuel than that california high speed rail. Sure the bulk of plug-in purchasers make more than $100,000 or have wealth stashed away. A tesla model 3 or a bolt, even without the government incentives is only a little more than the average cost of a vehicle. Does it matter that the top 20% are driving this experiment? Oil prices are low now, but in a decade they will be much higher unless we move some transporation off of oil. The marginal 5% plug-in market in 10 years will probably do a lot to reduce gas prices for those that don't buy a plug-in. Plug-ins world wide have already grown much faster than hybrids did. With all the pollution in European and Chinese cities, plug-ins are probably the most cost effective way to reduce urban pollution in population centers.

 

The styling caught my eye. I think the upcoming Nissan Leaf looks similar too?

IMG_8849 by CoolPrius posted Aug 7, 2017 at 8:57 PM

 

I see the similarities in terms of overall aerodynamics, but the Model 3 still looks much better than the Prius, in my opinion.

 

you pasted a picture of a Prius and a Tesla, not a picture of a Nissan Leaf. I am confused.
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i was confused as well, but too embarrassed to admit firstly.

 

Supposedly, the next Leaf looks like a smaller Murano.

 

linked a recent picture ....
looks like a Tesla ? ... not seeing it ... maybe more like a prius ... the Marvel/ani/transformer/air scoop thing goin' on. Still a vast uptick over rev1
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i like it, more like a niro.

 

lol. IMHO the side profile of the leaf (not pictured) similarity to the gen III prius and tesla model 3 stems from form following function. All of these cars use the kammback design to lower drag while providing a good balance of space for people and their stuff. The design originated in the 1930s and first graced the 1940 bmw 328. Lets not talk about concept to first design, or why it took so long to refine the kammback, as that history will move us away from engineering for both function and beauty. Both the gen I and II insights also had Kammback designs - although gen I looked much smaller and sportier than the gen III prius. Even though the tesla has a larger frontal area than the prius, the lower coeficient of drag (partially made possible because it doesn't need to have as much cooling air or a tailpip) makes drag 5% lower than a gen III prius going the same speed. The wedge front of the gen II and III prius is a slight stylistic difference from the kammback. Toyota kept this for 2 generations because it looked unique, and made the cars easily identified. It is not functional though. It does not improve aerodynamics, and it results in a larger more sloped windshield and larger area of unusable dash top. Toyota redesigned in the Gen IV and tesla model 3 like the model S is more of a traditional kammback. The other main difference is the wheels on the tesla (18" standard, 19" optional) versus prius (15" standard, 17" optional) is a lot about a different design philosophy. Telsa has gone for in modern automotive, better looking wheel tire combinations. This also allows for more sporty handling, larger brakes, and more communicative steering. The trade off is money. They cost more up front, and more to replace tires. They require a more expensive suspension to provide as comfortable a ride. Tesla also opted for a bigger contact patch than toyota, which provides better handling at the expense of rolling resistance. This probably shows the difference in the too cars. Tesla is made to be hyper efficient on long faster trips, but traded some efficiency in city driving for better handling and looks, while toyota optimized for city efficiency at low cost production. Gen IV prius opted for a more expensive suspension, moving in the direction that the tesla model III takes ;-) IMHO the gen III, which I own is better looking than the gen IV, but that has nothing to do with positive functional changes.

The front and rear of these cars are quite different though. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, and I'm sure some love the look of the front and back of the leaf, although many of think its fugly. Let's not really talk about it, as nissan is trying to give the next generation a prettier face. IMHO both the prius and model III look good on the front end, but not nearly as good as luxury sports sedans. The front of the model 3 looks a lot like the mazda 3, an inexpensive but IMHO fairly good looking car. The rear end of the prius versus the tesla model 3 really are a different story. IMHO the model 3 looks much better. Part of the look and function, that back glass with much better rear visibility than the gen III prius, caused tesla to give the car a trunk instead of a hatch back. Now the frunk and trunk combined, along with the folding rear seat provide plenty of cargo room, and probably make it quieter than a hatch back. The prius though can swallow more stuff with its strange split glass hatch design, and the prius design probably cost much less than the pretty tesla rear end.

 

probably the easiest challenge ever presented to nissan design staff.

 

Absolutely everything in the post above it mostly or entirely false.

I have driven places where you'd need a 450 mile range Ev to get there and back (or a plug-in hybrid like I have). I have driven places where you can't charge along your route which would result in a multi-hour detour because of the lack of range (and charging infrastructure). It has nothing do with not stopping for 500 miles, it has to do with places to charge. What good does a stop do in a town where there's no place to charge? This isn't psychological, the car will stop moving along the route, leaving you stranded. I haven't (and won't) buy an Ev with a range less than 450 miles until charging infrastructure exists in virtually every town in the country bigger than about 10,000 people, simply because the lack of range (or charging infrastructure) means I can't drive where I want to and/or get where I'm going when I want to. Simple, really.

Oh, and I think the Hummer is the dumbest street vehicle in history. It would have been worthwhile with the TOW missile launcher option, but without it, it's just a big, slow, dumb vehicle!

I see the current "long range" Ev's as "tweeners" - they have way, way more range than I need for staying in town, and not enough range with current charging infrastructure for going out-of-town unless you stay carefully along the well-beaten path or resign yourself to dozens of hours wasted charging at out-of-the-way L2 stations. I've has my ~30 mile range Prime for less than 4 months but I've already driven all over the city Ev-only and gone on three trips where a 100D Model S couldn't have followed me and kept up, with one more soon.

 

Lee Jay - I agree with Zythryn here. Definitely if you are doing these trips often and don't have access to another car, then a BEV is not for you. When you look at driving patterns of most US, European, Chinese, and Japanese citizens (I haven't looked at ROW ;-)) Your requirements aren't ever used. Of course they are your requirements, and having them, you should not buy a BEV, but you already knew that. That doesn't mean they are not appropriate for 20% of the US households to have at least one BEV.

Again some thought they had these requirements for a hummer. I remember talking to people who wanted one, but didn't think it was worth the money.

Remember Tesla charging infrastructure is rapidly growing. But even when its there, I'm sure you won't want one. That's fine.

I don't see much of a market for a 500 mile BEV. After a point someone will say I want to go 1000 miles. At some point the engine and little gas or other liquid fuel people will use a year is much less expensive than the extra batteries needed.

Maybe in a decade we will have lots of battery swap stations, but I doubt anyone will sell high volumes of bevs that have more than 400 miles of range. Even at $75/kwh that weight will make the cost too high except in low volume vehicles.

 

So - the manufacturers will continue building for everybody else. That's not meant to be, nor do I hope that that dynamic is troubling.
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If charging infrastructure was everywhere and fast (200 miles in 8 minutes), 300 miles would be fine. As of now, there are so many places you simply can't go in such a car that it's basically relegated to the city or the main highways. And that's why I see 20 Leafs for every Tesla - they cost a tenth as much and have plenty of range for the city. And everyone I know who has one has a gas car for leaving the city - including the one 90D owner I know. What's the point of hauling around over a thousand pounds of battery when you aren't going to take the car out of the city?

I'm going on a trip through very rural Wyoming to see the eclipse - 485 miles (SD, through WY, to CO) between L2 chargers and the only other option is about four 120V outlets along the route. Would you do that in any available Ev? Heck, I wouldn't do it in a 500 mile Ev because of the risk of traffic snarling the roads and stranding us for a while. Now, put two 350kW charging stations along the way and I'd do it in a 300 mile car. But can you see that happening in a place like Medicine Bow Wyoming? That's the size town I'll primarily be passing through until I get within 50 miles of home.

 

Everybody else is looking like 1% of car owners.

I was at work today where we have 32 L2 charging stations. About a third were occupied by plug in Hybrids, mostly older Volts. The other two thirds were Leafs except for one I3. There was a single Tesla in the parking garage, and I walked through about half of it, which was about 500 cars.

I'm in the VAST, VAST majority. People for whom a 300 mile Ev can do all jobs are the vast minority. It will be that way until charging infrastructure improves by a factor of ten or more.

 

A decade or two in the future I see "charging corridors" where you can charge wirelessly while driving (or rather riding since most vehicles at that point are autonomous). They are already testing this in Europe. This will minimize how large of battery packs we will need for long distance travel.

 

i don't know who the 'average buyer' is, but i suspect with only 1% of the total total market in the u.s., bev sales will continue to increase market share. nothing else really matters.