Jalopnik: Prius Prime

That pack is at lest 50kWh and around $180/kWh making it a minimum of a $9000 pack (more for the longer range versions). That puts the savings at something like $6,750 minimum. A range extender is going to be a sub-$2,000 device, you don't need the Supercharger network, you might not need the gigafactory, and every car could get 300+ miles of range anywhere in a few minutes eliminating range issues.

 

From Wikipedia,

Musk has said the same.

I answered your earlier question by presuming $125 a kWh when the GF is operational and that 3/4rths of a Model 3 pack is 40 kWh. And remember -- that upcoming Model 3 at $35k has power metrics that people love and unparalleled safety and assisted driving attributes. It is already price competitive if not superior to other cars on the market for somewhat similar (albeit inferior) features even before one considers its green attributes. Then consider what should most worry ICE based manufacturers: battery prices show no sign of leveling off.

 

I don't see why ICE based vehicle manufacturers should be worried about a car with a ridiculously short range, an extremely slow refill rate, and so few places to recharge. It's a niche vehicle at best that won't amount to 1% of the light vehicle market.

Now, give me batteries that are 1000Wh/kg and $30/kWh and then you'd have something, mostly because you could give it a 600 mile range for a reasonable cost and weight. But I see few signs of that happening any time soon. Lithium metal anodes and Lithium-Sulfur chemistry combined, perhaps?

 

It's simple, really.

You are the corner case. For a huge segment of the family car market the home charging, range, and Supercharger network work great when packaged into a Tesla Model 3. That is already true today, even before advances in battery density occur and the upgrade of the SuperCharger network to over 350 kW that Musk has tweeted about is in place.

Compare the pace of innovation in BEV related technology to that of ICE. It took Toyota over 5 years to improve ICE efficiency by 5-7%. The CTO of Tesla expects battery tech to improve at that rate yearly. In the 5-10 year time frame it will feel like ICE technology is standing still while cells will cost $50 - $75 a kWh. The writing is on the wall, and I would like to help make it happen.

I think Toyota is a wonderful company; I hope they don't get wiped out by the BEV tide coming in.

 

Prove to me that I'm the corner case in the US. I don't believe it for a second.

 

i wouldn't say 'for a huge segment of the car market'. after all, it's only 1% or so. i would say, 'for a huge segment of the bev market.' but again, how huge? no way to know.

i would like a bev, but it wouldn't be for long distance travel.

 

Around 400k people placed $1000 deposits for the Model 3, unseen, un-tested, and unfinished at least TWO years before anticipated arrival.
Ask your dealership what their expected conversion rate to sales is when they take a deposit for half that amount.

Enough said

 

That's great but who besides Tesla is building a charging infrastructure? The auto industry sees the demand based on Model 3 reservations and all of these company's claim to be building different electric vehicles yet nobody is building places to charge them.

 

there is a flat tire repair kit as well as 3 year rtoad side assistant

 

VW, as part of their settlement is pumping a couple Billion dollars into charging infrastructure.
Many municipalities and other levels of government are also contributing.
And yes, many car manufacturers are building some infrastructure, although that is typically just at dealers.
And private companies are building out both DC and level 2 networks.

IMO, Tesla has the most useful strategy and the most convenient, best planned out network.
Others are working on it though.

 

Thats the problem here with the fast charging stations. They are all at dealerships. I don't want to park at a Nissan dealership or Cadillac dealer to charge my car.

 

Fair question. I surmise all of them, shortly after they see Tesla eating their lunch.

In the meantime see Zythryn's answer.

Perhaps I am just being optimistic but I expect a degree of convergence between CCS and Tesla. Almost certainly the public built and for profit charging stations will offer both Tesla and CCS plugs, as ChargePoint is now showing.

 

I wouldn't want people drooling on my car at the Caddy dealership either. Luckily almost all my charging is at home and the small remainder at Superchargers.

 

Over the roughly 3-year-period those cars will be produced, 120 million cars will be produced world wide. That means a Model 3 is 1/3 of 1% of the market. If they were really so vastly superior to conventional cars for the majority of use casses, they'd be more like tens of percent of the market.

 

If they were anywhere near as poor as you seem to think, you would not have to post nonsense.

/End

 

What I have posted is absolutely true.

Let me know when Tesla can produce a decent car that can go 400 miles on a charge for $18k, like a Corolla can. Or a more up-scale car that can go 600 miles on a charge for $30k like a Prime can. Oh, and can refuel at least half of those ranges in 8 minutes or less, in every metro area in the country with at least 30,000 people.

 

8 minutes ? Try 30 seconds to make it a bit of a challenge for people who find it slow going to walk 10 feet.

Plug in at home
Plug removed before driving.

 

I don't either, which is one of the reasons I drive a Tesla

 

It should have been obvious to anyone that I was talking about road trips. When you're on an out-of-town road trip, do you return home to charge?

Tesla's are tweeners. They have more range than they need to be in-town-only cars, and not enough range to be take-out-of-town cars.

I use Google Timeline. I checked last year. The longest I drove the entire year when I didn't leave the city was 70 miles in one day before returning home. The shortest drive I took when I did leave town was 240 miles before having the theoretical ability to charge, and that was just one trip. All the other ones were over 300 miles. This is consistent with my friends who own Leaf's. They all tell me that 80 miles is plenty of range, and that they take conventional cars when they leave town. None of them charge with anything other than 120V chargers at their houses or at work.

 

And because that is your driving pattern it must be everyone's?
Of course your friends who own Leafs find 80 miles is plenty of range, they wouldn't be Leaf owners if it weren't.