Prime destined to be doa?

We need that many gas stations because you don't have gasoline piped to your house.

 

Maybe he & I should have our own refineries - but then, maybe we LIKE the carcinogenic toxic explosive filthy accidents happening elsewhere - because after all - that way, we don't have to give a rip about the rest of ya ... jyst us .... numero uno.
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True, but we need 100 times as many Supercharger locations as there are now (around 20,000). There's exactly one in the entire Kansas City metro area, and it was 30 miles from where I was staying. A 60 mile round trip to "fill up" is not a practical thing when you're on vacation and would rather be doing vacation things rather than wasting two hours babysitting your car so you can drive it for the next three days.

 

Do you think I'm some sort of coal-rolling fossil-loving redneck who, um, hangs out on PriusChat looking to upgrade his '04 Prius to a plug in hybrid?

I'm of the strong opinion that Elon took the wrong path, and that resulted in cars that are extremely heavy (nearly 5,000 pounds for a car the size of a Prius), expensive (moer than half the cost of my house) and not able to do the things that a bottom-of-the-line Yaris can do. The right path would have been to go for a plug in hybrid with all-electric propulsion and an APU. That would have eliminated the need for Supercharger stations entirely (just need the ChargePoint network or similar) and made the car far lighter and far cheaper, while still getting 60-80% of all vehicle miles traveled on electricity alone. As battery technology continues to improve, slowly migrate that design to more and more electric miles, and change the APU as fuels change or eliminate it entirely if batteries ever get good enough.

 

i don't know if folk will believe our spin, if we say a 7 seater hatch w/ front trunk is prius sized - but let's give it a try! maybe they ARE that dumb. But then again - they may aleady know it's the lack of an engine block (giving rise to a huge crumple zone) in addition to that weight - that has enabled those damn Tesla's to have such a huge safety rating ... such that after BILLIONS of miles driven - idiots you could count on just one hand, have been able to kill themself. Let's hope they don't throw that back in our face. Keep up the great opposition ... maybe we can still win 'em over
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I'm trying to figure out if he is Trump or Baghdad Bob...

 

Stuff like this makes my day!

Poster is second guessing Elon Musk. Leaving out all Elon did before Tesla, he has built a $30,000,000,000 company literally from scratch. So at a minimum the market disagrees with your take on the situation. Every car company is now pulling out all the stops to get a 200+ mile EV on the road. Never would have happened if Tesla didn't show that there was a demand for long range EV's. And 400,000 Model 3 reservation holders seem to indicate that a less expensive Tesla will sell pretty well too.

Actually, not every car maker is pulling out all the stops to build 200+ mile EV's. There is Toyota after all...

How many Hydrogen stations are there on your National Park circuit?

RT

 

Elon is wrong on many things. He said Falcon 9 would fly by June of 2009. He thought cork and parachutes would be sufficient for recovery. He has splashed four customer payloads at SpaceX.

You realize, I hope, that nearly 75 million cars are sold every year. Tesla has less than half a percent of the market.

 

Re:Focus: Are You Willing To Strike Out?

Stupid Babe Ruth .... STUPID Musk ... They need a big dose of our "can't-do" attitude - thats what they Need. We're gona have to step it up ... find some more dirt on Musk!
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Pretty static thinking. Progress is not linear.

 

Gotcha, back on topic. Topic is "Prime destined to be DOA?".

Here is someone who doesn't think so:

Toyota Prius Chief Engineer Hoping to See Prime Hit One Million Sales

"Toyota chief engineer Koji Toyoshima would like to see the Prius Prime plug-in hybrid hit the one million units sold mark over its product lifecycle... In order to do that, it would need to go up to 200,000 units sold per year to hit the one million target over the model cycle..."

Ok, the line in the sand has been drawn. We can now see how well the Prime sells versus the stated goal of 200,000 per year. There was also this somewhat less ambitious goal from back in June:

Toyota Aims For 60,000 Toyota Prius Prime Sales Per Year | CleanTechnica

"Toyota is targeting 60,000 sales a year for the upcoming Prius Prime plug-in hybrid, nearly as many as the previous-generation Prius PHV sold cumulatively since its 2012 launch. About half that volume will come from North America, while Japan chips in roughly the other half."

There you have a couple stated goals, we will check back periodically to see whether the Toyota management can beat Elon the slacker with their plug in vehicle. Pay special attention to the part in Italics, there is a big clue there WRT whether the stated goal(s) can be met.

RT

 

This isn't progress, it's regress.

Think about the transition from internal combustion prop driven airplanes to jet airplanes. Think that would have worked on the idea that "we're not using gasoline anymore but the new planes are slower and have shorter range than the old ones"? We made the transition because they areally faster and have longer range.

BEVs areally slower to refuel and have shorter range than that which they seek to replace. That argument wouldn't have worked with airplanes and I don't see why it will work here.

If BEVs want to replace conventional cars, they need to be better, not worse.

 

BEVs are better, for many people, right now.
No, not for everyone, but that isn't needed. To get 20% market share, BEVs need to be better for 20% of the car buyers.
You don't need to be one of those 20%, that's fine.

 

Why is Europe always left out of equation? Toyota Hybrids are booming in EU and are surpassing US sales with projected 300,000 units sold per year.
Hybrids Playing Big Role for Toyota in Europe | Engines content from WardsAuto

With recent diesel scandals and all the manufacturers talking about EVs, customers are seriously looking for alternatives and Toyota has the the histroy of bulletproof hybrids that are now priced competitive against diesel competitors.

 

I think later comments have tried to downplay the 60k quote.
I don't see the Prime doing significantly better than the Volt; at about where the PiP might have reached if available nationwide. That is about 20k a year. If it does do better, it will be at the expense of Prius sales.

 

Note though, that is about 30k for the U.S. market. \
That should be pretty easy IF Toyota makes it available nationwide. Even if only the CARB states, as long as they ship enough to dealers they can probably hit that as long as dealers push them.

Some of those sales will come from other Prius models. How large a percentage, I don't know. I am hoping there is a net gain of the market share.

 

Of course, the 60k quote mention the market split.
From a leaked price, the Prime and Volt are going to be very close in after credit price, which has a bearing on lease rates.
I always said the PiP could have beaten the Volt on sales if available nationwide. The Prime has a fair chance of doing the same, but beating the Volt isn't reaching 30k a year. Unless we are lucky enough that the Volt goes that high.

Which market share, plug in, hybrid, or both? A nationally available Toyota should grow plug in share, but reaching that 30k might be at the expense of hybrid share.

 

In my state, given the leaked pricing, a Prime Advanced will be substantially cheaper than a Three HB.