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Featured MIT Study on EVs

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by bwilson4web, Aug 17, 2016.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Source: Can today’s EVs make a dent in climate change? | MIT News

    The study, which found that a wholesale replacement of conventional vehicles with electric ones is possible today and could play a significant role in meeting climate change mitigation goals, was published today in the journal Nature Energy by Jessika Trancik, the Atlantic Richfield Career Development Associate Professor in Energy Studies at MIT’s Institute for Data, Systems, and Society (IDSS), along with graduate student Zachary Needell, postdoc James McNerney, and recent graduate Michael Chang SM ’15.


    “Roughly 90 percent of the personal vehicles on the road daily could be replaced by a low-cost electric vehicle available on the market today, even if the cars can only charge overnight,” Trancik says, “which would more than meet near-term U.S. climate targets for personal vehicle travel.” Overall, when accounting for the emissions today from the power plants that provide the electricity, this would lead to an approximately 30 percent reduction in emissions from transportation. Deeper emissions cuts would be realized if power plants decarbonize over time.
    . . .    ​

    Source: http://www.nature.com/articles/nenergy2016112

    Abstract: Electric vehicles can contribute to climate change mitigation if coupled with decarbonized electricity, but only if vehicle range matches travellers’ needs. Evaluating electric vehicle range against a population’s needs is challenging because detailed driving behaviour must be taken into account. Here we develop a model to combine information from coarse-grained but expansive travel surveys with high-resolution GPS data to estimate the energy requirements of personal vehicle trips across the US. We find that the energy requirements of 87% of vehicle-days could be met by an existing, affordable electric vehicle. This percentage is markedly similar across diverse cities, even when per capita gasoline consumption differs significantly. We also find that for the highest-energy days, other vehicle technologies are likely to be needed even as batteries improve and charging infrastructure expands. Car sharing or other means to serve this small number of high-energy days could play an important role in the electrification and decarbonization of transportation.​

    Bob Wilson
     
    #1 bwilson4web, Aug 17, 2016
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  2. mikefocke

    mikefocke Prius v Three 2012, Avalon 2011

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    My neighborhood has been in 95+F heat and high humidity with 80 degrees as we wake up... for weeks And we have coal fired plants with coal ash disposal issues and resulting stream and ground water contamination. Not to mention the political corruption that attends.

    So how would a huge jump in cars that need to be charged help the planet? Could we keep all the A/C running at night as the cars need to be recharged? Our current peak energy use times are about 9AM to 9PM judging by the rates but, in either extreme cold or heat, could the grid handle the night time surge of all the charging without bringing on line every mothballed dirty power plant?

    Decarbonization and grid buildout first.

    How about a hurricane zone where winds knock out the grid for days on end? Floods? Tornadoes? In each of those cases today, most have hundreds of miles in the tank to escape. They aren't waiting for a charge or, if lucky, trying to flee with half a charge.

    Yea, on the average and 87% of the time. It is those exceptions that will kill you ...
     
    #2 mikefocke, Aug 18, 2016
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  3. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    you look at the glass as half empty, i look at it as 3/4 empty.
     
    #3 bisco, Aug 18, 2016
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  4. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    location latitude longitude
    1 Sanford NC 35.4799 N 79.10803 W 354 ft
    2 Huntsville AL 34.7304 N 86.5861 W 600 ft

    You're about 246 ft lower and the wrong side of the Smokies but otherwise we're both in Dixie and our Southern climate. The last two nights have been the first we've been able to turn off the AC.
    I can only answer what it has been since we've gotten our BMW i3-REx and 'parked' our 2010 Prius:
    [​IMG]
    • June - first month we owned BMW i3-REx; 10 days in dealership getting caught up on previous recalls.
    • July - started using the 12A, portable EVSE at home until house wiring completed middle of the month. Started practice of visiting 'free', Level 2 EVSEs (30A) to top the car before heading home. This becomes an EV driving style just like there is a Prius style of driving.
    • Aug - using home, Level 2 (30A), charger. There was one week when I did not charge the car at home at all but used just 'free' chargers. Only four days of this bill included the 'free' charger testing.
    I can't find an effect on our electrical bill that says this is a significant, new load. But I think we should look at comparative, night-time loads such as street lights and offices.

    Street lights should move to LED. My office building turns off the AC around 4:30-5:00 PM and turns them on around 6:30-7:00 AM. I work 6 AM to 2 PM and know first hand what is going on. But our BMW i3-REx and the Level 2 charger at home have 'time of day' built in. Just Huntsville utilities provides no off-peak, reduced rates.

    As you pointed out, your peak is 9AM to 9PM. The mothballed coal fired plants do not come on in 12 hour cycles. Rather peak loads come from other sources, not coal fired.
    That is an impossible requirement, often called a poison pill. I don't feel any such requirement exists as much as looking at adding renewable, wind and solar, to handle peak loads. The base can easily handle the additional EV car load ... or it does for my daily 10 mile distance commute to work and various around town errands. FYI, I'm running a little over 300-350 miles per week.
    In April 2011, tornadoes ripped up the TVA transmission lines in North Alabama and we 'camped out at home' using a 1 kW inverter from our 2003 Prius. I was planning to go that way with our 2010 Prius until I decided to add a 16kW, utility gas fed, generator. The natural gas supplies are relatively immune to natural disasters in our area.
    I agree which is why we went with the Range Extended, BMW i3-REx. With a small engine able to sustain 70 mph on flat or 65 mph in ordinary highway driving, we are planning a 700 mile trip to Oklahoma. I already did a 462 miles trip: Why the BMW i3-REx | Page 2 | PriusChat

    Now there are a wide range of EV-to-gas capabilities. I chose the highest ratio of EV-to-gas and am glad I did. It means I can drive more than 72 miles (EPA metric) without having to recharge. Yet for some of my benchmarks, I did because I needed to investigate the Range Extender at higher speeds, 75 mph (DON'T DO IT!)

    I disagree with all-EV today possibly advocated by this MIT paper, even into the next decade. The cost of remote charging is too expensive, i.e. a 10 minutes BLINK chargecosts as much as whole day charging at home; too slow using 30A Level 2 chargers, and; makes no economic sense for standalone charger companies. Around town, 'free' chargers are like samples at a grocery store, a small cost that like parking lot lights, attracts customers.

    A range extender engine capable of sustaining 70-75 mph works. On my 'to do' list is expanding the high-speed range of the BMW i3-REx.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #4 bwilson4web, Aug 18, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 18, 2016
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  5. inferno

    inferno Senior Member

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    So... Are you liking the i3 compared to the prius? The future is plugin vehicles to buy time for better and faster charging batteries composed differently to be denser and maybe "fueled" like hydrogen cars. Hybrids play a huge role but I do believe plugins are what Hybrids were in 2001
     
    #5 inferno, Aug 18, 2016
  6. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I don't see it as either/or but rather overlapping requirements:
    • Extreme commuting - typical DC or large urban commuting of +50 to +100 mile commutes, Prius
    • Occasional long distance - BMW i3-REx, plug-in with range extender
    • Huntsville commuting - 10 miles each way and local trips within a 20 mile radius, BMW i3
    Bob Wilson
     
    #6 bwilson4web, Aug 19, 2016
  7. cycledrum

    cycledrum PSOCSOASP

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    Did they spend any time addressing HOW an electric car could recharge overnight when parked on the street?

    I don't have data, but I will estimate there are as many cars parked on the street as in driveways and garages combined in our home tract.
     
    #7 cycledrum, Aug 19, 2016
  8. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    That isn't part of the conclusion or discussion.
    The precept is, "if you can charge overnight". It doesn't matter if it is in a garage, on the street, in a condo/apartment garage.

    Of course, the infrastructure isn't there yet, as many apartments/street parking doesn't have charging infrastructure yet, although some does.
    Likewise, the entire market isn't going to switch to electrics this month.

    Once the EV market reaches 30-50%...then that may be a valid point about the limit of the possible market for EVs.

    As for NC and it's coal burning ways, the article isn't saying an EV is the most low Carbon solution for every single person. It is saying IF everyone were driving EVs, CO2 from transportation would drop 30%. It is an average and doesn't apply equally to everyone. For example, for me, an EV drops my CO2 by about 100% :cool:
    In no way, should I conclude or argue that the paper is wrong because my personal results are far different than the paper's conclusion.
     
    #8 Zythryn, Aug 19, 2016
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  9. El Dobro

    El Dobro A Member

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    Wouldn't burning one fossil fuel be better than two fossil fuels in coal country? Just asking.
     
    #9 El Dobro, Aug 21, 2016
  10. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    Far too simple a question.
    What if the first vehicle got 20 MPG and the second got 40MPGe? Even though it used two types of fuels, it used much less of both to drive the same distance.
    Even in "coal country" the grid isn't 100% coal generated electricity. And, it gets cleaner year after year, while oil gets dirtier year after year.
    And then there is a question of how you define "better".
    Many would say local resources are far "better" than imported resources.

    Now, if you are looking at the Prius vs typical EV, the Prius is "worse" from a local resources standpoint, better for 35% of the populace from a GHG (much of that likely in "coal country"), worse for most people in terms of fuel cost (much of that in "coal country"), worse in terms of performance and drive quality.

    The above numbers are all from 2012 data.

    So how one defines "Better" and what time frame you are looking are needed to answer your question.
     
    #10 Zythryn, Aug 21, 2016
  11. El Dobro

    El Dobro A Member

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    Since the coal plant is generating electricity anyway, until it's moth balled wouldn't it be better to use the power generated in the evening, since you can't shut it down, to charge up an EV instead of using a gasser?
     
    #11 El Dobro, Aug 21, 2016
  12. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    From an economical risk and ghg point of view, having more wind and natural gas in coal country would be better. More evs may be a way to help pay for that infrastructure. There is a lot of politics involved though.

    Coal states are all in heavily regulated markets otherwise they might have transitioned more already. Here the coal utilities and government have set up a system to keep coal high.

    Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Missouri are the states that burn over 60% coal for their electricity and burn the most coal in terms of volume. None of them are likely to be high on the list of plug-in adopters. Texas, Illinois, and Pennsylvania are top coal burning states but the percentage of their electricity from coal is much lower than those top 5.
     
    #12 austingreen, Aug 22, 2016
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