Featured March 2016 Dashboard

You bring up a good point. We know Toyota, possibly Ford, have no credits. We really need to understand who has or will have any credits remaining?

• Hyundai
• Kia
• Nissan
• e.t.c.

Anyone know a source of remaining Federal credits?

Bob Wilson

 

We agree with the goal embedded in the question. The challenge is how to accomplish it.

Subsidies are an easy target and limited. Then as they succeed, their costs go up until the limit . . . and then the subsidy crashes. We need a smoother, more stable system that continues over decades.

Another approach would be a manufacturer tax based upon vehicle MPG. Lower the MPG, higher the tax on the MSRP price. This tax brings purchase of cheap, inefficient vehicles to be price competitive with efficient vehicles. As the market moves towards more efficient vehicles, the tax automatically goes down. For example, let us accept the false but common 'hybrid premium', comparison:

• Corolla vs Prius -> $4,000 (the usual suspects claim)
• Load the Corolla with options found stock on base Prius -> $2,000 (alloy wheels, spoiler, e.t.c.)
• (Prius Eco 56 - Corolla Eco 35 MPG) / Prius Eco 56 = 21 / 56 = 37.5%
  
• Corolla Eco 'guzzler' tax = $2,000 * 37.5% = $750 -> $2,000 - $750 -> $1250 cheaper Corolla

I used simple math to demonstrate the principle. There are a family of functions that could be used to tailor the 'guzzler tax.' Regardless, the goal is to tax cheap, inefficient cars to bring them closer in purchase price to an efficient vehicle.

Yes, you could still buy a 35 MPG Corolla Eco but the tax will bring it up within spittin' distance of a midsize Prius. You can buy anything you want but after taxes, it will cost closer to the most efficient vehicle in that class.

The advantage of this scheme:

• No limit - it runs without a cut-off threshold
• Inflation effects built-in
  
• Still leaves cheap, inefficient vehicles on the market but not so cheap as before
• Reduces the number of tax participants to manufacturers and IRS

The only down side is it gives limited motivation to improve the peak-performing vehicles. To do so impacts the manufacturers down-scale vehicles. Of course it does provide a competitive advantage over the 'honorable competition.' It also accelerates moving fuel efficiency into the down-scale models.

Bob Wilson

 

Source: EV and Hybrid Loyalty Falls to All-Time Low, Even as Overall Fuel Economy Thrives, Says Edmunds.com

A detailed analysis of Edmunds' vehicle trade-in data tells a story of many hybrid and EV owners jumping from one extreme to another. In fact, Edmunds found that a hybrid or electric trade-in is more likely to go toward the purchase of a SUV (33.8 percent) than another hybrid or EV. The trend is even more apparent when looking only at EV trade-ins — 25.7 percent of EV trade-ins went toward the purchase of a SUV, compared to just 4.8 percent that went toward another EV.

Vehicles Purchased in Connection with a Hybrid or EV Trade-in

	Segment	2015	2016
1	Hybrid or EV	38.5%	27.5%
2	SUV	29.0%	33.8%
3	Truck	4.1%	5.3%
4	Compact/Subcompact Car	8.9%	12.1%
5	Luxury	11.1%	11.5%

*2016 data consists of 5,724 hybrid and EV trade-ins captured through the end of March

"The overwhelming popularity of SUVs trumps just about any other trend in today's market," says Caldwell. "SUV sales are up 22 percent in the last five years, and almost every other segment has suffered as a result. It's especially true for hybrids and EVs, which generally don't offer the size that today's shoppers crave."​

Last year sales: Hybridcars Dashboard Summary: March 2015 | PriusChat
This year sales: March 2016 Dashboard | PriusChat





Bob Wilson

 

We can compare the sales Q1_2015 and Q1_2016 matching models which omits new and discontinued models:

	Model	Q1_2015	Q1_2016	diff(%)
1	Volt	1181	2861	1680(142.3%)
2	Model S	3300	4300	1000(30.3%)
3	Fusion Energi	1263	1819	556(44.0%)
4	RX 400 / 450 h	1162	1676	514(44.2%)
5	Sonata	2465	2848	383(15.5%)
6	500e	283	590	307(108.5%)
7	Highlander Hybrid	563	867	304(54.0%)
8	Cayenne S E-Hybrid	155	390	235(151.6%)
9	Grand Cherokee Diesel	464	633	169(36.4%)
10	Spark	237	391	154(65.0%)
11	X3 Diesel	113	252	139(123.0%)
12	NX Hybrid	388	496	108(27.8%)
13	5-Series Diesel	158	203	45(28.5%)
14	e-Golf	376	414	38(10.1%)
15	Promaster Van Diesel	23	54	31(134.8%)
16	Soul EV	132	160	28(21.2%)
17	ActiveHybrid 5 535ih	3	2	-1(-33.3%)
18	Jetta Hybrid	95	93	-2(-2.1%)
19	7-Series ActiveHybrid	5	1	-4(-80.0%)
20	GS 450h	17	13	-4(-23.5%)
21	LS 600h	12	7	-5(-41.7%)
22	Q5 Hybrid	17	8	-9(-52.9%)
23	i	13	3	-10(-76.9%)
24	QX60 Hybrid	324	314	-10(-3.1%)
25	ML Class Diesel	16	5	-11(-68.8%)
26	Malibu Hybrid	14	2	-12(-85.7%)
27	ELR	184	171	-13(-7.1%)
28	RLX Hybrid	32	19	-13(-40.6%)
29	Q70 Hybrid	41	22	-19(-46.3%)
30	Regal Hybrid	33	10	-23(-69.7%)
31	Impala Hybrid	48	16	-32(-66.7%)
32	E400H	43	1	-42(-97.7%)
33	Focus EV	225	176	-49(-21.8%)
34	Panamera S E-Hybrid	105	50	-55(-52.4%)
35	MKZ	1185	1099	-86(-7.3%)
36	Civic CNG	88	1	-87(-98.9%)
37	C-Max Hybrid	1819	1729	-90(-4.9%)
38	CR-Z	451	355	-96(-21.3%)
39	i8	228	121	-107(-46.9%)
40	forTwo EV	250	118	-132(-52.8%)
41	C-Max Energi	1110	960	-150(-13.5%)
42	Q50 Hybrid	687	510	-177(-25.8%)
43	B-Class Electric	385	124	-261(-67.8%)
44	3-Series Diesel	511	229	-282(-55.2%)
45	Pathfinder Hybrid	442	152	-290(-65.6%)
46	ES Hybrid	1822	1516	-306(-16.8%)
47	Civic Hybrid	671	327	-344(-51.3%)
48	GL-Class Diesel	612	260	-352(-57.5%)
49	GLK Class Diesel	414	18	-396(-95.7%)
50	Insight	432	21	-411(-95.1%)
51	X5 Diesel	722	288	-434(-60.1%)
52	Avalon Hybrid	1814	1359	-455(-25.1%)
53	Cruze Diesel	573	94	-479(-83.6%)
54	XV Crosstrek Hybrid	1099	590	-509(-46.3%)
55	Lacrosse Hybrid	823	201	-622(-75.6%)
56	Optima Hybrid	1649	905	-744(-45.1%)
57	Cayenne Diesel	797	18	-779(-97.7%)
58	E-Class Diesel	916	121	-795(-86.8%)
59	CT200h	2421	1594	-827(-34.2%)
60	Prius Plug In	874	17	-857(-98.1%)
61	Fusion Hybrid	4316	3430	-886(-20.5%)
62	Leaf	2887	2001	-886(-30.7%)
63	i3	1592	514	-1078(-67.7%)
64	Accord Hybrid	1753	122	-1631(-93.0%)
65	Prius C	6178	4370	-1808(-29.3%)
66	Camry Hybrid	4882	3002	-1880(-38.5%)
67	Prius v	4429	2536	-1893(-42.7%)
68	Prius Liftback	16801	14463	-2338(-13.9%)

Ok, now we can see the trend for the 1st quarter between 2015 and 2016:

• Plug-in and SUV styles - biggest gains
• Prius Liftback- 'coughed' with model year change
  • Other Prius family hybrids got the flu

I have no illusions about the Edmunds timing to coincide with "Earth Day." The raw data was available two weeks ago. I've not yet found Edmunds 2nd-4th Quarter reports. However, that doesn't mean we can't.

The attached zip file has an Open Office spreadsheet with the data used to generate this table. Enjoy!

Bob Wilson

ps. I included both the absolute numbers and percentages. When I see percentages, I am reminded-'there are lies; damn lies, and; statistics'.

 

One of the reasons I added the source spreadsheet was to give folks who want to modify the list a chance to make changes. I knew the TDI diesels would fall off the list.

I am switching from Excel to OpenOffice and the vlookup() function does not always signal a missing row. Rather than spend a lot of time at 3 AM, I did a quick hack and tossed out non-matching entries. You're welcome to start with my spreadsheet which copied data from the original table posts (see links in earlier post.) But I also just woke up and will take another hack at it.

I found some names would not match until I took out the "(" or corrected other 'invisible' characters. Also, I'm only showing models that show up in both 2015 and 2016. This omits the new and discontinued.

Bob Wilson