" We have Tesla in the far corner, building its battery gigafactory in Nevada, for which it needs tons of lithium at a reasonable price, and just last week Tesla announced its plans for the Model 3, which has already hit over 300,000 pre-orders. To give you an idea of just how meaningful this is, Tesla produced less than 50,000 cars last year. Elon himself mentioned during the unveiling that Tesla will be gobbling up much of the world’s lithium supply with plans to produce 500,000 EVs per year. “In order to produce a half million cars per year…we would basically need to absorb the entire world’s lithium-ion production.” Remember – this is one man, one company. Tesla’s soon-to-be-completed gigafactory will produce more lithium-ion batteries than the rest of the world combined. And opposite Tesla, we have some other major players shifting gears that will affect the lithium space. Chinese billionaire Jia Yueting is stepping onto Tesla’s playing field with its own electric car start-up, Faraday Future, and Apple is planning one too, by 2019. Through its Alphabet holding company, Google is also getting into the game with plans for a self-driving car." Tesla And Other Tech Giants Scramble For Lithium As Prices Double - Yahoo Finance
will cause an increase in lithium mining, but at what cost? i'm sure they have foreseen the challenge and planned for it.
Brings up the question of recycling the Li from older batts, which up to now has been more of a question of socially responsible disposal, but if you just need Lithium maybe that's a different story. Don't cry for me Argentina
Don't forget there are other battery technologies in the wings as well. I heard somewhere that there has been more battery research in the past 5 (or was it 10) years than in the past 180 yrs of batteries. Just this week I was reading about an aluminium-graphite - which may not eventuate, but both of which are much more available than lithium or even nickel. But it may explain why TOYOTA are using NiMH in many markets still.
Whatever battery chemistries are used for EVs, all of the key elements will need to be obtained at vastly greater rates. The real concern is how much environmental damage will result, not any shortage. Price fluctuations will always be present, but so will the competition to exploit the money made. It's regulating the damage that matters, not the availability of the material. If it is in the earth's crust, we have the technology to get it in volume.
Funny thing to me about the dreaded fear of the end of lithium supply sourcing . . . . um, crude? How Much Oil Does the World Consume a Day? This Much Ancient middle east expression (seems appropriate) says something like this; "You're straining out the flies, while you try & swallow a camel" Priorities? Just saying, maybe best to rein in toxic aftermath of crude's many products, it's destruction of the air, wars, explosions, etc, before we start swinging at the flies. and in case anyone is counting - those barrels amount to over a TRILLION gallons/year .
The "green" narrative in the USA is that costs for Li batts, solar, and wind are decreasing exponentially daily according to Moore's Law of computer chips. If the Li shortage is true, this is a chink in the armor, but media these days thrives on alarmist reports, so it might just be B.S.
It's hard to believe that Gigafactory is coming online without the Li supply fully understood and worked out by Tesla. Setting up those supply lines takes well over a year to prepare for, so the media claims that there is a shortage is only true to the extent the shortage is for a given price. Price fluctuation might be the result of the Gigafactory supply getting started, not something unplanned for by the world's largest battery factory.
But it would be incredible everything went right, right? Look at the Li price chart...when they start callin' it White Petroleum, you know we're potentially in trouble.
I'm not ready to say that. The availability and price of something extracted always oscillates as demand conditions change. Oil, coal, natural gas, etc. all follow that pattern. Demand goes up, them price goes up....till new sources come on line to harvest the profits. Just looking at the near doubling of price clearly incentivizes expanding and opening mines that formerly were under the margin of profitability. That includes the Li mines in the US. While Li may be at the high end, oil is at the low end. I expect both situations to shift.
even with the giga factory, musk won't make more batteries than demand. it's going to be a long, slow smooth ramp up, not a straight vertical leap.
..it's a myth, right? No matter, let's start the Web Blog now! Let's call it Lithium Drum...no I do not know let's think on it
It can be 100% recycled, just not cost effective yet. It's much cheaper to produce from brine currently. That could change in the future as supply/demand changes and recycling technology improves. No lithium is used up as the battery ages.
that's great news. it eliminates the concern about running out of lithium, even if it means higher battery prices, they'll find other way to cut costs.
Lithium is an element. The only elements this planet is losing are Hydrogen, Helium, and some Radioactives. Dispersal is another issue, and a more real problem. Thank you kindly.
