Lumen stability will still depend on good thermal design. Cheap designs that run the LED die too hot will still suffer lumen loss with age.
Here's another tidbit re LED's vs CFL's. All CFL's and almost all LED's generate unwanted EMF's so that if you use 'em in your garage door opener - they can easily interfere with your remote opener' s signal. There are a couple brands that don't and i'm having good success with one of 'em. .
Many bad ones are likely to do that. But I'm also drawing on prior experience, before LEDs reached the home lighting market. There was a window where poor thermal design, coupled with adequately robust drive electronics, led to rapid aging and degradation of the raw LEDs. But for mass consumer markets, the lowest cost producers are likely to cut multiple corners and put in poor drivers too.
I found the online list showing which LED's don't spew RFI on garage door applications. I went with the phillips brand tho they're a bit pricey; .
Interesting issue. I haven't found an LED that plays nice with the circuit in my garage. They all want to flicker because they are on the same curcuit as my motion detectors. So until I find one that can buffer the power enough to not flicker I won't have to worry about the RFI issue.
I finally found a LED worth getting that plays nice with my motion detectors and looks nice in other areas of the house. smile.amazon.com Hyperikon-Dimmable-9-5-Watt-Equivalent-Omnidirectional/dp/B00Y9BHS4W at just under $5 a bulb they look way better than the old CFLs I replaced. Better color temp (K) - available in 3000K and 4000K (also 2700K and 5000K but I think those look worse) Better color index (90+ CRI) more lumens per watt better start up time I just noticed the lumens per watt curve on these 2700K 800 lumens 88.8 l/w 3000K 820 lumens 91.1 l/w 4000K 840 lumens 93.3 l/w 5000K 860 lumens 95.5 l/w Pretty nice, the only thing I'd change is to have 3500K bulb option and kill off the 2700K. I have cheaper non dimmable bulbs from Lowes that are utilitech branded that are 3000K and cheaper but these hyperikon bulbs are nicer. I'm not at home so I don't have the utilitech numbers heere but the partial table of bulbs in my house is. ~50 lm/watt spec, 13W spec CFL 2700K ~50 lm/watt spec, 10W spec CFL 2700K ~69 lm/watt spec, 6.5W 3000K 450 lm Utilitech ~74 lm/watt spec, 6.5W 3000K 480 lm SunSun ~83 lm/watt spec, 3W 3000K 150 lm G7 ~85 lm/watt spec, 7W 3000K 600 lm SimpleEnergyWorks ~88 lm/watt spec, 7W 4x00K* 615 lm SimpleEnergyWorks ~89 lm/watt spec, 6.5W 5000K 580 lm SunSun ~93 lm/watt spec 4000K 840 lumens Hyperikon 9W (dimmable) and the new hyperikon bulbs I don't have in that format (including the one I do). ~67 lm/watt spec 3000K 470 lumens Hyperikon 7W (dimmable) ~70 lm/watt spec 3000K 490 lumens Hyperikon 7W (dimmable) ~72 lm/watt spec 3000K 510 lumens Hyperikon 7W (dimmable) ~91 lm/watt spec 3000K 820 lumens Hyperikon 9W (dimmable) ~93 lm/watt spec 4000K 840 lumens Hyperikon 9W (dimmable) ~95 lm/watt spec 5000K 860 lumens Hyperikon 9W (dimmable) because of the much lower lm/watt on the 7W version I can't see any reason to buy it instead of the 9W version unless it were 1/4 the cost per bulb. At $4 - $5 a bulb I'll just buy the 9W. I'll buy the cheaper 6W utilitechs if the 9W is too bright for a specific location. I can get those about $1 to $2 a piece but only in 3000K and non dimmable.
I'm not sure what URL you got presented the forum software hijacked my URL and put an ad in there. I've edited the post to show the product URL minus the http and one of the slashes. The correct listing will say " Hyperikon LED A19 Dimmable Bulb, 9.5-Watt (60-Watt Equivalent), 4000K (Daylight Glow), CRI90+, 800 Lumens, Medium Screw Base (E26), 340° Omnidirectional, UL - (Pack of 4)" but you can get there by going to amazon and searching for B00Y9BHS4W Also beware that Amazon listings will show the same lumens for all for color temps of a bulb, you have to look carefully to see the correct stats.