Climate predictions

In engineering, we have a term called "managing customer expectations." In this case, more precision may be demanded than the should be expected from any one model or even some arbitrary collection of models:
Berkeley Earth

We also have a concept of 'integration and test.' We design using heuristics or models of how things are supposed to work. Then we build a prototype and debug it on the bench. Finally, we make early production systems and hand them over to the integration and test team, a set of independent engineers and technologists who use the product to find the remaining problems. But we never put the model over the observation. In fact, we use observations to update the model(s) for the next project.

In the early 1970s, Hansen knew from orbital mechanics the earth should be getting cooler until he factored in greenhouse gas warming. That in turn led to more work in climate studies that pretty well show greenhouse gasses are making our planet warmer. Now the exact amount at each finite place on or above earth or in the seas, this is where the models can and will disagree. But that simply means we need observations to refine and correct the models. On the big scale, greenhouse gas warming is pretty much the case as even the skeptics have all but given up.

So it is March 15 and the trees have decided 'freeze time is over.' I'm thinking about a small, early garden this year with okra and stuff. Something to enjoy later this summer. Sweet corn would be nice too but it is a single crop while okra, tomatoes, and peppers are harvested until the first freeze. A nice long growing season.

Bob Wilson

 

... people don't change. They believe what they believe. Period. That's that. Our cause is lost. We can hope to make no impression, whatsoever, upon anyone (present company excepted). The more theoretically impeccable we may be only serves to strengthen their resolve, otherwise.

But, there is good news! Planet Earth's going to be just fine! Though, by then, we'll long since have vanished, carbon cycle interference with Earth's hydrologic cycle will inevitably self-correct in, give or take, about a thousand years.

Rule of thumb, for Earth's carbon cycle to self-correct, 100 years for every 10 years we've liberated fossil petroleum into the atmosphere, given a 110 year product life-cycle of the internal combustion engine, jet and rocket propulsion, positive case scenario, we're looking at the year, 3131, thereabout. That is, if we pull the plug, this instant (e.g., no more NASCAR; no more Princess Cruise Lines; no more F35s; no more jet setting; no more NASA freak show).

Back to Pogo sticks and unicycles? 50 years ex post facto, relevance of studying the problem, talk of carbon holidays, it's too late. We'd breached planet Earth's tipping point, circa 1968.

How do you boil a frog? Give them more Mustangs, and more Camaros. Trusty recipe for mass extinction, dialing up the burner slowly makes boiling to death an otherwise pleasant experience -- Samuel, '04 Ruthiemobile.

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I've never tried black plastic sheet, but I prefer thick, translucent painters dropcloth.
It's cheap, durable (not the ultra-thin stuff), and allows light in, which I believe is important once seeds begin to germinate.

Any thoughts? Good thread!

 

You do not think there will be small habitable zones around the Arctic Ocean which would support a population of possibly 100,000-400,000? Last I read, populations as small as 1,000 individuals would be viable to preserve human species although propagation of certain mutations could be a probem(or an advantage, depends). You do not think that is possible?

 

they change when the basement fills up with water.

 

Recalling Biology 101, it really depends on the carrying capacity of the land and how much viable land is available. I don't know the specifics regarding genetic diversity but I can say there is a lot of truth to the old jokes about inbreeding. If you were going to have only 1,000 individuals and hope to continue to benefit from natural selection, you'd need to have a pretty diverse group of 1,000 people to begin with.

Environmental politics is never a black and white issue in my opinion.

 

At one time, there were reports that based on sun spot analysis and a baffling solar model, the sun would cool down over the next three cycles. When I say baffling, I couldn't understand what was published: Sunspot Cycle appears broken at 24-cycles | PriusChat



If accurate, this is bad news for those who would deny man-made, global warming. It implies the sun is cooler YET terrestrial measurements are increasing. In effect, greenhouse gases are 'terra forming' a warmer planet even as our sun may be getting cooler.

I was thinking of some Russian/Ukranian papers about solar activity but this thread instead. Mr Google found: Russian scientist predicts 100 years of cooling - Ice Age Now



Here is a reference to the paper: Heartbeat of the Sun from Principal Component Analysis and prediction of solar activity on a millenium timescale : Scientific Reports



Bob Wilson

 

No because thermometers have no names.

Bob Wilson

 

No need since the sketch reveals the problem:


Without study of his methodology, the chart suggests he is using a series of straight line, approximations (or the text is criticizing this poor approach.) To me, "I estimate global temperature by 2030 will be somewhat below the value of today's global temperature" is not supported by the chart for the previous two sentences. Regardless, we also need to understand his data source. I prefer Berkeley:

Source: Berkeley Earth

So doing the best I could with PowerPoint to scale the two graphs:

I don't see even the straight-line approximations matching between Berkeley and the original chart.

Bob Wilson

 

All i know is over the past few years our dwarf nectarine tree starts blooming in january

But I kind of like boating in January anyways - with the unseasonably warm weather. Anybody want some nectarines come March?


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They have a German website.I havent read the book but as far as I know they are merely presenting the studies of several Solar physicists.

 

yep - no bees flying around in January/February, but I use Q-tips in lieu of bugs.
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