Dashboard summary: December 2015

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by bwilson4web, Jan 6, 2016.

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  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Summaries coming this evening for Jeff Cobb's excellent: December 2015 Dashboard
    model Dec_15 Nov_15 Oct_15 Sep_15
    1 Prius Liftback 10153 8287 9611 9952
    2 Ram Pickup Diesel 4531 3848 4283 3836
    3 Model S 3500 3100 2100 2400
    4 Prius c 2861 2601 3373 3367
    5 Volt 2114 1980 2035 949
    6 Prius v (lowercase v) 2040 1643 2128 2575
    7 Fusion Hybrid 1960 1388 2050 2002
    8 Camry Hybrid 1861 1964 2545 2629
    9 RX 400 / 450 h 1493 958 514 443
    10 CT200h 1464 984 1077 1131
    11 ES Hybrid 1443 833 895 907
    12 i3* 1422 723 986 1710
    13 Leaf 1347 1054 1238 1247
    14 Sonata 1138 931 1342 1185
    15 Fusion Energi 1058 944 849 808
    16 Avalon Hybrid 933 798 993 1064
    17 Optima Hybrid 870 844 1262 1136
    18 MKZ 867 676 646 596
    19 C-Max Hybrid 837 815 912 1247
    20 i8 656 118 149 182
    21 e-Golf 609 472 596 343
    22 C-Max Energi 579 639 695 719
    23 Highlander Hybrid 516 318 375 367
    24 XV Crosstrek Hybrid 425 319 211 370
    25 Grand Cherokee Diesel 420 341 321 315
    26 Range Rover Sport 417 270
    27 Range Rover 387 283
    28 NX Hybrid 364 196 188 170
    29 CR-Z 316 236 316 310
    30 GL-Class Diesel 284 258 245 214
    31 Q50 Hybrid 281 189 381 356
    32 500E 270 174 231 347
    33 Civic Hybrid 263 239 455 613
    34 QX60 Hybrid 249 149 220 231
    35 3-Series Diesel 247 188 225 241
    36 Accord Hybrid 223 289 442 854
    37 GLE-Class Diesel 215 185 179 132
    38 5-Series Diesel 215 85 72 239
    39 X5 Diesel 207 525 296 204
    40 X3 Diesel 186 103 105 124
    41 forTwo EV 179 178 75 94
    42 Model X 177 15 10
    43 Spark 152 166 177 157
    44 Lacrosse Hybrid 145 194 199 200
    45 Cayenne S E-Hybrid 137 121 126 70
    46 ELR 135 67 82 36
    47 B-Class Electric 97 41 81 147
    48 Focus EV 96 93 126 145
    49 Soul EV 96 83 109 105
    50 Pathfinder Hybrid 84 102 168 186
    51 E-Class Diesel 82 100 104 87
    52 Cayenne Diesel 76 176 356 276
    53 XC90 Plug In 74 7 1 0
    54 Cruze Diesel 69 218 202 222
    55 Jetta Hybrid 65 52 64 77
    56 Promaster Van Diesel 43 28 21 25
    57 S550 Plug In 35 21 25 17
    58 Civic 25 16 19 19
    59 GLK Class Diesel 24 33 46 108
    60 Prius Plug In 22 44 91 216
    61 Insight 22 30 53 64
    62 Panamera S E-Hybrid 16 33 28 41
    63 Q70 Hybrid 16 14 14 12
    64 RLX Hybrid 16 13 14 26
    65 ML Class Diesel 16 7 10 2
    66 7-Series Diesel 14 1 2
    67 Q5 Hybrid 13 7 5 3
    68 Impala Hybrid 12 1 11 5
    69 i 9 4 9 3
    70 Regal Hybrid 8 9 11 13
    71 ActiveHybrid 5 (535ih) 7 2 1 2
    72 GS 450h 3 5 7 7
    73 ActiveHybrid 3 (335ih) 3 2 3 0
    74 LS 600h 3 0 1 3
    75 Malibu Hybrid 1 0 1 1
    76 Accord Plug In 1 0 0 0
    77 7-Series ActiveHybrid 1 0 0 0
    78 ILX Hybrid 1 0 0 2
    79 Touareg Diesel 0 25 418 373
    80 Touareg Hybrid 0 1 0 0
    81 Q7 Diesel 0 0 497 326
    82 Q5 Diesel 0 0 455 406
    83 A6 Diesel 0 0 91 86
    84 A7 Diesel 0 0 53 44
    85 A8 Diesel 0 0 9 23
    86 E400H 0 0 1 0
    87 RAV4 EV 0 0 1 0
    88 Fit EV 0 0 1
    89 Passat Diesel 0 0 0 779
    90 Golf Sportwagon Diesel 0 0 0 834
    91 Jetta Diesel 0 0 0 674
    92 Golf Diesel 0 0 0 308
    93 Beetle Diesel 0 0 0 46
    94 A3 Diesel 0 0 0 30
    Source: Jeff Cobb's Hybrid Market Dashboard - HybridCars.comHybridCars.com (well worth reading!)
    • It is my practice to not post vehicles in the table that had no sales in the previous four months. Next month, a lot of diesels will no longer be listed. Of course, VW, EPA, and CARB could come to terms in the remaining three weeks of January.

    [​IMG]
    • I changed the graph format to keep the top selling model on the left scale and the others on the right.
    • In this case, there is a 1-to-2/3 ratio but I understand fractions could be a problem. In the future, I may keep it to integer ratios like 2-to-1, 3-to-1, 4-to-1, e.t.c. I see numbers and wanted the graph to show the lines but realize irrational fractions may be not so easily understood.

    [​IMG]
    • In your face 'cheap gas'
    • Way to go Tesla!
    There is a lot of good news for hybrid fan-boys and even more for Tesla.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #1 bwilson4web, Jan 6, 2016
    Last edited: Jan 7, 2016
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  2. fotomoto

    fotomoto Senior Member

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    Increase due to more models (YAY!) but overall sales of each are mostly down. Cheap gas.

    Also, PIP RIP. :cry:
     
    #2 fotomoto, Jan 6, 2016
  3. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Other than the prius liftback hybrids seem deep in the dumps. I expect this to get worse next year, with the liftback and possibly the ioniq garnering good numbers, but cheap gas pushing down on the rest.

    Interesting that 2 plug-ins turn in the top 5

    Prius liftback
    Ram Pick-up diesel
    Tesla model S
    prius c
    volt

    The ram diesel is a throw away, pick-ups sell much better than cars, so it doesn't represent a big percentage of the ram population of trucks. It may grow next year, but with cheap gas, people may not want to pay the diesel premium.

    Next year the model S is not supply constrained, but tesla's own model X will be competing with it for some of those customers that bought an S but wanted an X, so I don't expect much growth. The prius c may be hurt by the new gen IV prius depending on price of the new car. The volt should do much better next year as the 2016 and 2017 models are much better than the 2015.

    The next 5 are
    prius v
    fussion
    camry
    Lexus Rx
    Lexus CT

    The prius v and lexus ct will probably suffer from the gen IV liftback until they make it onto the new platform. Better pricing could pick up sales of the fusion and camry hybrids though.

    2016 looks like a good year for plug-ins, but for non-plug-in hybrids other than the prius liftback I anticipate bad sales.
     
    #3 austingreen, Jan 6, 2016
  4. Sergiospl

    Sergiospl Senior Member

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    Rank Best-Selling Car 2015 / 2014% Change

    #1 Toyota Camry 429,355 / 428,606 0.2%
    #2 Toyota Corolla 363,332 / 339,498 7.0%
    #3 Honda Accord 355,557 / 388,374 -8.4%
    #4 Honda Civic 335,384 / 325,981 2.9%
    #5 Nissan Altima 333,398 / 335,644 -0.7%
    #6 Ford Fusion 300,170 / 306,860 -2.2%
    #7 Hyundai Elantra 241,706 / 222,023 8.9%
    #8 Chevrolet Cruze 226,602 / 273,060 -17.0%
    #9 Hyundai Sonata 213,303 / 216,936 -1.7%
    #10 Nissan Sentra 203,509 / 183,268 11.0%
    #11 Ford Focus 202,478 / 219,634 -7.8%
    #12 Chevrolet Malibu 194,854 / 188,519 3.4%
    #13 Chrysler 200 177,889 / 117,363 51.6%
    #14 Kia Optima 159,414 / 159,020 0.2%
    #15 Subaru Outback 152,294 / 138,790 9.7%
    #16 Nissan Versa 144,528 / 139,781 3.4%
    #17 Kia Soul 147,133 / 145,316 1.3%
    #18 Volkswagen Jetta 131,109 / 160,873 -18.5%
    #19 Ford Mustang 122,349 / 82,635 48.1%
    #20 Toyota Prius 118,020 / 136,040 -13.2%
    ------Toyota Prius ^ 113,829 / 122,776 -7.3%
    ------Toyota Prius Plug-In ^ 4191 / 13,264 -68.4%
    #21 Chevrolet Impala 116,825 / 140,280 -16.7%
    #22 Mazda 3 107,885 / 104,985 2.8%
    #23 Subaru Impreza 100,519 / 83,488 20.4%
    #24 Dodge Charger 94,725 / 94,099 0.7%
    #25 BMW 3-Series 94,527 / 100,790 -6.2%
    Source: Automakers & ANDC
     
    #4 Sergiospl, Jan 6, 2016
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  5. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    discontinued?
     
    #5 bisco, Jan 6, 2016
  6. fotomoto

    fotomoto Senior Member

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    From the link: For the year, sales were down based on a decline in the Volt and the Prius Plug-in hybrid which ceased production in June.
     
    #6 fotomoto, Jan 6, 2016
  7. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    both have new models coming out.
     
    #7 bisco, Jan 6, 2016
  8. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    yoy plug-in sales were down a disappointing 6501 units. Figures are inside ev which seem more accurate than hybrid cars.

    leaf fell 13,254
    prius phv fell 9063
    volt fell 2912

    These were made up for mostly by the tesla model S, bmw i3 and i8, and vw e-golf. With the prius phv on hiatus for over a year, that story is most disappointing, this is the biggest percentage drop. The gen II is not due until the end of this year at the earlliest so it won't contribute until 2017. The leaf sales were affected by the slow roll out of the 30 kwh and wait for the gen II, and bolt, had the biggest quantity drop, there is hope for some recovery this year depending on the gen II and the bolt. Volt didn't drop much at all, and with healthy december sales and a 2017 update due in spring, looks like it will race to number 2 behind the model S.
     
    #8 austingreen, Jan 6, 2016
  9. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    Cayenne Diesel - with the VW diesel FUBAR, I'd enquired about whether or not that product would get caught up in the stopped sales mess. I think someone raised the question whether or not a diesel version even existed. Well according to Bob's chart - there it is. and sales are up. From that, I'll presume they're giving them the green light on their diesel.
    The Lexus SUV is sure taking it in the shorts - down 50% each subsequent month.
     
    #9 hill, Jan 7, 2016
    Last edited: Jan 7, 2016
  10. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    That's not a bad showing for Prius Hybrid under the circumstances.

    I am thinking Plug_in Hybrids have a tough year in 2016 unless Ca. extents green HOV stickers. My guess is Ca. will extend green stickers to help out PHEV sales. PHEV falling in Ca. vs. BEV

    In Va. we have HOV plates so as long as you keep buying a new green car you can transfer HOV plates. In that way we (unintentionally) keep new green car sales up for those lucky grandfathered green car owners. We are going to HOT-3 lanes without green car access so we'll lose our little green car "re-buy" bonus in a few years.
     
    #10 wjtracy, Jan 7, 2016
    Last edited: Jan 7, 2016
  11. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    You have to understand this year was bad for phevs, as the prius went on hiatus and gm practically told people to wait for the next volt Remember california is less than half of phev sales, and the sticker move may lower its percentage, but the volt gen II should easily outsell this year, the fusion energi and bmw i3 should also sell well, and we have anouther delay but probable entry of the outlander phev, and the just released a3 phev, and likely ioniq phev introduction. I expect rebound off these low 2015 levels inspite of cheap gasoline. My guess is 2017 is the year for the phev with bmw, mercedes, hyundai, and ford releaseing new or updated models this year and early next year. 43,000 this year is a low base, I would expect at least 65,000 sold in 2017 without more stickers. If california gets its head out of its you know what, the numbers could be much higher.

    Lesf sales may continue to be low compared to 2014 until the gen II comes out. That bolt kind of blows away the gen I leaf in terms of range and may have many prospective leaf customers waiting. Model X, and S should continue the strong growth in the bev sector. 72,000 last year shold be at least 90,000 this year, and 110,000 in 2017

    All in all plug-ins should grow substantially in 2016 in the US, Europe, and China.
     
    #11 austingreen, Jan 7, 2016
  12. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    The only reason I see Volt2 could have a good year is Volt1/PiP1 buyers at end of 3-yr lease, unless of course Ca. extends the green HOV sticker program.
     
    #12 wjtracy, Jan 7, 2016
  13. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I still see three sales clusters:
    • Prius hatchback - ~10,000 per month
    • Secondary group - 2,000-4,000 per month, Ram, Model S, Prius c, Volt, Prius v, Fusion, Camry
    • Everyone else - ~500 per month below the secondary group
    Although the gross numbers vary and the membership in the Secondary group changes, it remains fairly constant. Transitions from one group to the other is somewhat rare.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #13 bwilson4web, Jan 7, 2016
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  14. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    You don't see camry, cruze, corrola, focus, owners stepping up? This summer the 2017 is out, and with the tax credit looks like a good value. I don't think there are many pip owners compared to the market. I think a total of less than 43,000 prius phvs sold, with very few coming off lease. They were the most likely to say car pool stickers were very important to buying, so that isn't a good market. On the other hand high end high tech compact should be much bigger. With only 15,393 volts sold in 2015, I can't imagine that they don't blow the number away. Its up to dealers of course, but it should not be that much of a sales challenge. 2013 they sold 23,000, and I expect they sell at least that many with the better value proposition inspite of cheap gasoline.
     
    #14 austingreen, Jan 7, 2016
  15. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I may have misunderstood, gasser or existing fuel efficient owners:
    • Camry hybrid - long on the tooth and needs a technology update. It may also benefit from the new, standard body (or design rules.) The sales numbers also show a slipping. However, the upscale Camry, the Avalon is showing some life.
    • Cruze diesel - seems to have picked up customer who might have gone VW TDI.
    • Corolla - no opinion but the sportier handling might pull in a few, very few, gassers. The new standard body might keep them with the gassers.
    • Focus - I like what Ford has done but I'm not a Ford guy. To me, they seem like 90% there . . . good enough but not perfect.
    Bob Wilson
     
    #15 bwilson4web, Jan 7, 2016
  16. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Oh that was in response to wjtracy on his prediction of slow sales of the 2016 and 2017 volt because of lack of car pool stickers. The price of the base is $25,700 after federal tax credit (if you don't qualify its rolled into leases;)) That puts it in the price range of the camry, especially in states like california that put an extra $1500 tax credit. I mentioned camry and corolla because those were popular cars to trade in on the volt when it started shipping. Its not too surprising, the camry and corrola were the two best selling cars last year. Between those two toyota sold 790,000 units (unfortunately only 30,640 were hybrids). If someone doesn't need the back seat, and will make do with a hatchback(liftback/fastback don't know the correct termonology it used to be fast back when done for aero, and hatch when done for space like in the prius c) instead of a 4 door sedan. The front seats are quite nice. Its plain vanilla on the outside like the camry and corrola, but nice on the inside for driver and front passenger. I've got to belive with some good dealer training they can avearge over 2000/month, once the 2017 and nationwide roll out happens. Cruze included because it should be an up-sell, focus like the corolla a competing but more boring compact. Didn't want to make the list too long. Didn't include the fusion because it has a phev version. Civics may also be a target.

    On your comments, I think its the dealers and low gas prices on the camry hybrids. The take rate is not as good as it should be. I don't think there is much wrong with those hybrids, but if you are selling them for gas savings... Camry has a 7.1% take rate, fusion between the hybrid and energi 11.5%, sonata 9.3%, and Lexus ES that camry variant a nice 17.3% take rate for the hybrid.

    I've got to disagree about the cruise diesel having life. It only had a take rate of 1.4%, they aren't getting many of those vw tdi customers, and it is probably a money loser. It probably does better in europe where they like those things, but its not cutting it in the US.

    The corola was up 24,000 units this year. with 35 mpg combined in the eco version it probably is taking away some potential hybrid buyers.
     
    #16 austingreen, Jan 7, 2016
  17. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    My mistake. You are right. The Cruze diesel took one heck of a hit.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #17 bwilson4web, Jan 7, 2016
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  18. Sergiospl

    Sergiospl Senior Member

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    #18 Sergiospl, Jan 7, 2016
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2016
  19. Sergiospl

    Sergiospl Senior Member

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    Gen 4 Prius went on sale Dec. 9
    upload_2016-1-19_20-0-27.png
     
    #19 Sergiospl, Jan 19, 2016
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  20. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Europe had 14.5M sales in 2015, US 17.5M
    I doubt there were many non toyota/lexus hybrid sales in europe. Lets say 250,000 or 1.7% getting closer to US 384.4K falling to 2.2% .Let's hope take rate improves in 2016, but I don't think the gen IV prius is enough. Japan looks like the only good hybrid market.

    Japan - Flash report, Sales volume, 2015 - MarkLines Automotive Industry Portal
    Japan fell to only 5.047 Million cars, only 3.1 Million non mini vehicles. This downturn was predicted with the previous can subsidies over, and the weak yen abenomics is hoping will increase exports and employment.

    aqua and prius kept their first and second place in best selling cars.
    2015 (Full Year) Japan: 30 Best-Selling Car Models
    Aqua (prius c) 215,525, -7.6%
    prius (liftback) 127,403 -30.6%

    Those two models alone accounted for 11% of the japanese non mini car market. There were many other hybrids. Perhaps the prius will outsell the aqua this year with the new model. Someone else with better knowledge of the models can give us a percent.
     
    #20 austingreen, Jan 19, 2016
    Last edited: Jan 19, 2016
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