For plug-in cars someone set up a prius test. It was worthwhile if the plug-in produced less ghg than a prius on that regional grid. UCS has published mpg (ghg)e the equivallant ghg to some gasoline mpg. Since the mirai is in only one state I was curious to see if it passed the prius test. Those talking about these things often exclude grid tied renewables, although I think they should be included so we will do it both ways. How Clean Are Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles? - The Equation This UCS makes it seem like fcv are cleaner than a prius, because california will build so much renewable hydrogen. 46% by the end of 2015 was supposed to be renewalbe hydrogen in california. The SMR figure they use is based off of 14kg of CO2/kg of hydrogen from SMR. I'll use that number for now, but we can discuss that too. According to fueleconomy.gov a mirai gets 66 miles /kg of hydrogen 14kg/66miles = 212 grams per mile for SMR. Perhaps it is even better with all the renewables california has built. This compares to 213 grams for the gen III prius, 205 grams for the gen IV prius, and 190g for the gen IV prius eco. I'd call it a draw. Compare Side-by-Side California was supposed to build a lot of renewable hydrogen by now http://www.energy.ca.gov/2015publications/CEC-600-2015-004/CEC-600-2015-004.pdf http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/zevprog/ab8/ab8_report_2015.pdf but they are way behind schedule, which we discussed in another thread. Portable Hydrogen Fuelers Go To Six Toyota Mirai Dealers As Stations Lag Now those 6 new mobile hydrogen stations need to driven with diesel to be refueled meaning they are going to have a much higher ghg footprint than UCS decided on 212 g for permanant stations that only needed hydrogen moved short distances. The first 6 commercial stations include no renwable stations. That is SMR for everything. Some of those next 6 have grid tied renewables to offset their net carbon footprint, but .... I thought we didn't count grid tied renewables. What happened to all those renewables that were there in 2014. They are demonstration stations. I'll try to update this with when california mirai cross over and produce less ghg than a prius. Right now they produce more.
So you are saying Mirai FCV is roughly equal CO2 to Prius if the H2 is made from natural gas. This is about the same as BEV if given grid average CO2 from electricity.
It's all about how the gas is generated. If we someday get the nuclear fusion power plants that we are all promised, then H2 becomes totally environmentally friendly. Same goes for the power that charges electric vehicles. Until then, there is still combustion of hydrocarbons in the chain to generate the power. The energy has to come from somewhere! Bill the Engineer
I'm not trying to make any over riding statements, but statements about ghg on California's current end of december 2015 infrastructure. If you only fill up at commercial stations a mirai will produce roughly the same ghg (212) as a gen III prius (213) and more than a gen IV prius (205). If you fill up at commercial and dealer stations the mirai will produce more ghg than a gen III prius. This is definitely not true in California for bevs. The thirsty model X P90D is estimated at 150 g/mile. The leaf 30kwh is 120 g/mile. The volt running on gas and electric 160 g/mile. Some states have much higher emissions than california, but plug-ins don't sell well there. UCS said weighted plug-in nationwide had lifecycle emissions equivalent to a 68 mpg gasoline car using 2012 emissions and not even counting owners renewables. There has been the strange demand that plug-ins should not be allowed funding in places where they produce more ghg than a prius. I am just noting that today, any mirai bought is going to be likely fueled where ghg emissions are higher than the gen IV prius, so it fails the prius test. What happened? Renewable hydrogen has not been built as fast as promised. Why not credit electricity for plans to clean up, if you are going to make up much cleaner hydrogen than is being built? If you count grid tied renewables for net ghg then plug-in owners are much cleaner than the numbers as they have bought a great deal of solar panels and wind. If you don't count that way, most of the planned renewables for hydrogen don't count either. I'd like to continue this proof of concept phase for hydrogen, but we should use the same accounting. CARB seems to want to count future good intentions for fcv, yet promises rarely get built.
(1) ...aside from us here on Prius chat, who would demand that plug-ins not get funding in higher than Prius GHG regions? (2) Does the Prius CO2 include upstream and refinery CO2? If not we should probably add a factor. (3) It would be interesting to get a more recent take from UCS's Reichmuth now that the fuel cell vehicles have come under attack from some.
I have only heard it here on prius chat. Those are fueleconomy.gov estimtes which include upstream emissions. Whether you agree with them or not is anouther matter. I included the link with the estimates. UCS was using GREETs 2013 hydrogen analysis, with california's electricity profile, and CARBs projection for renewable hydrogen from summer 2014. All I did was transform the hyundai tucson figures to epa mirai figures, and include The current california reality of hydrogen fueling. There seems to be big differences in projections of fcv based on infrastructure. I included the carb reports of 2015 as to stations, and toyota's description of the 6 full functional stations (2 are soft openings, allowing some cars to refuel, but perhaps not all) now open, the 6 temporary dealer stations, and you can see the 6 demonstration stations toyota describes in the carb descriptions. There should definitely be some grid tied renewable stations coming on line in the next couple of years that should change calculations. One of the suprises is the much press released fountain valley "tri-gen" biogas facility is demonstration only and not properly upgraded to work to quickly refill the mirai or operate as a public station.
Well that would only make sense if Plug_ins had Federal incentives for the purpose of reducing CO2. I see the purpose of the Fed incentives to create jobs and try to establish American leadership in Plug_in technology, basically conceding to Toyota for the hybrid space (without incentives).
Maybe nuclear plants can be saved economically (from cheap wind and gas) by diverting to H2 manufacture at night for peak shaving.
This would, as I recall, be Austingreen's position as well. Some of the loudest anti-plug/pro hydrogen folks here seem to feel the rebate should be based on CO2. Austingreen and I are simply wondering if they stand by that, or if they have modified that position now that it is apparent that in CA, the Mirai doesn't fare so well.
I don't think you have to wonder. Any time current limitations are referenced, they go to lab developments and what the future might bring, without fail.
That was the plan for Japan, then an earthquake happened. If you have the space, building excess wind for hydrogen, or other renewable fuels, would likely still beat out the nuclear plant.
Japan is triply screwed. It has an aging population that will suck more government yen. The wind and solar resources are not nearly as good as the US or Europe. They have very little fossil fuel. My guess is they are very lucky that saudi is making oil cheap as they can use hybrids until they figure it out. My guess is if fcv make it in Japan it will be from coal power, and ghg may be sequestered. Japan greatly increased coal since the tsunami.
Sure I just don't understand how two California governors are still believing the same lies. I mean if we were 10 years away in 2004, why doesn't it look any closer in 2015. I do belive it is just a matter of money to get this test going, but there seems to be a lack of competance in Mary Nichols CARB in getting it done, even with $20M/year. After over $40M has been spent on top of 9 stations it is shocking that their are only 6 public retail statoins with 0 renewable. Now we have 2 steps back with these mobile refueliners. The promise was 44 stations with most of them retail and 46% RENEWABLE by today.
Bill - I thought the notion that most coal burning plants run plugins was already addressed. Even so, here we go again ~ More Electric Car Drivers Are Using Solar Power Instead of Gasoline As for nuclear fusion - getting that off the ground may be as hopefull as building a long straw to the sun for your hydrogen. if we don't stop - do we just keep on incentivizing it - despite it never being ready for prime time for 5 decades now? .
